Tasmania 2018 Archive

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More data – Tasmanian and SA state elections added

I’ve just added two more datasets to the Tally Room data repository.

These datasets cover the results of the recent Tasmanian and South Australian state elections, including candidate lists, booth lists, and voting figures at the booth and seat level:

The only thing I am missing is South Australian upper house voting figures at the booth level and at the electorate level. I’ll add those when I can track them down.

This means I now have datasets published for every state and territory election since 2013, although I am also yet to go back and add the two-candidate-preferred votes by booth for the 2017 Queensland state election.

I’m prioritising work on the podcast, but I will continue to publish more datasets when I get time, including the 2016 Brisbane City Council election results and some older Queensland figures.

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Tasmanian election – count update

We are now entering the final stages of the Tasmanian election’s preference distributions. After all votes were collected, preferences began to be distributed yesterday, with substantial progress yesterday and today.

Kevin Bonham has been doing a great job of tracking the preference distributions in his liveblogs for the five electorates. I thought I would run through a quick summary.

Bass

Four seats have been decided – three for the Liberal Party and one for Labor. There are four candidates left in the count. The quota is 10,830 votes:

  • Jennifer Houston (ALP) – 6654
  • Andrea Dawkins (GRN) – 6571
  • Bridget Archer (LIB) – 3505
  • Simon Wood (LIB) – 3418

Wood’s preferences will presumably favour Archer overwhelmingly, bringing her closer to the Labor and Greens candidates, setting up a tight three-way race. If every Wood vote flowed to Archer, she would lead Houston by 269 votes.

In practice you’d expect a decent number of Wood votes to leak to Houston or Dawkins.

Dawkins needs to gain 84 votes net on Houston, or 352 votes on Archer, to stay in the race. If Dawkins is eliminated, her preferences will presumably elect Labor’s Houston.

If Archer is eliminated, her preferences will presumably elect Labor’s Houston. If Houston is eliminated, who knows? It could go either way.

Once Wood’s preferences are distributed we will know which of the final three drops out first, with a final count later tomorrow.

Braddon

Two Liberals have been elected, with six other candidates left standing. The quota is 10,718 votes:

  • Anita Dow (ALP) – 8570
  • Shane Broad (ALP) – 7531
  • Roger Jaensch (LIB) – 6826
  • Joan Rylah (LIB) – 6005
  • Themba Bulle (ALP) – 4211
  • Felix Ellis (LIB) – 3175

The Liberal Party holds 1.49 quotas in remaining votes, while Labor holds 1.89 quotas, so you’d expect Dow and Broad to both win their seats, and very likely that Jaensch will win the third Liberal seat.

Denison

One Labor, one Liberal and one Green have been elected, with five candidates left standing. The quota is 10,866 votes:

  • Sue Hickey (LIB) – 9130
  • Ella Haddad (ALP) – 6909
  • Madeleine Ogilvie (ALP) – 5664
  • Kristy Johnson (LIB) – 5288
  • Tim Cox (ALP) – 5248

Hickey will definitely win a second Liberal seat when Johnson is eliminated, while Tim Cox’s preferences will decide the second Labor seat between Ella Haddad and incumbent Madeleine Ogilvie. Kevin Bonham’s analysis suggests that there’s a correlation between a higher Haddad vote and a higher Cox vote, which suggests Cox’s preferences will favour Haddad, increasing her 1245-vote lead.

The next count, expected tomorrow morning, should decide this final seat.

Franklin

Two Liberals and one Labor MP have been elected, with four candidates left standing. The quota is 11,863 votes:

  • Nic Street (LIB) – 10,643
  • Rosalie Woodruff (GRN) – 10,562
  • Alison Standen (ALP) – 7,983
  • Kevin Midson (ALP) – 6,073

Midson’s preferences (likely distributed in the morning) should elect Standen, with the surplus deciding the race between Street and Woodruff. There are 2193 surplus Labor votes (excluding any which leak to the other two candidates or exhaust), which is easily enough to overcome the 81-vote gap if they favour Woodruff, which I’d expect.

We should find out tomorrow morning.

Lyons

Only one candidate has been elected in Lyons (Labor leader Rebecca White), with five Liberals, three Labor, one Green and one JLN candidate in the race.

The Liberal vote collectively adds up to 3.18 quotas, with the third-highest polling Liberal candidate (Rene Hidding) well ahead of his closest rival with over three-quarters of a quota. All three of the incumbent Liberals should be re-elected.

There is a close race for the second Labor seat, with the votes currently sitting at:

  • Janet Lambert – 3,901
  • Jen Butler – 3,784
  • Darren Clark – 3,461

Clark is the next to be excluded, and his preferences should clarify which Labor candidate is leading, but preferences from the Greens, JLN and the two lower-ranked Liberal candidates will also help decide who wins this seat.

This is likely to be the last seat to be decided, and I am not sure if it will be resolved tomorrow.

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Tasmanian election – booth results maps

So we finally have booth breakdowns of the Tasmanian election results – and for the first time these have been published as spreadsheets (rather than PDFs or image files) which made it much easier to analyse. And they have also finally published the list of booths in a format useful for analysis (rather than on the website in a format for voters) with a match between the unique booth name in the results table and the full address, which means I don’t have to guess which address matches which votes.

I’m about to dash off for the weekend but before I do I put together two quick maps. The first shows the primary vote totals for the three main parties by booth across the state. The second shows the swings to and from each party. You can toggle on each map between Liberal, Labor and Greens, with Liberal as the default. I’ve also included links to the maps if you want to view them full screen.

Firstly, here’s the primary vote totals. It’s particularly interesting to look at the shockingly low Greens vote in Braddon – the party is a long way away from winning back a seat here:

Secondly, here’s the swings. There were very few places where the Greens gained ground. While the Liberal Party suffered a small statewide swing, there were plenty of places where they gained ground.

That’s it for now – I’ll be back next week as we head to South Australia and Batman, and should expect to start publishing seat guides for the next big elections by April.

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Tasmanian election – close seats

My estimate at the end of Saturday night was that the Liberal Party had won 13 seats, Labor 8 and the Greens one, with three seats still in play: in Bass, Braddon and Franklin.

I don’t plan to follow these counts in minute detail but thankfully Kevin Bonham is doing this with separate posts for the five electorates. You can read those posts here:

My plan for Sunday had been to put together booth maps showing the vote figures for the three big parties across the whole state. Sadly the necessary data is not publicly available as of Sunday night, so that will have to wait.

I’ve written before about my frustrations with various state electoral commissions publishing data in non-useful formats. Sadly the Tasmanian Electoral Commission doesn’t appear to be getting any better. They don’t appear to have published any information which would allow me to match the unique booth names (used in the results data) to the list of booth addresses. Thankfully I’ve worked it out, but I don’t understand what would be so hard about publishing this information.

In addition, the TEC did publish the media feed on election night, but they make it difficult to get access to that data, and it appears to have already been shut down.

While you wait for that promised map, I’ve got an article in the Guardian today analysing Saturday’s result.

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Tasmanian election day – open thread

Polls have now opened in the Tasmanian state election. Feel free to use this post to share interesting tidbits or developments throughout the day.

There’ll be another post at 6pm, although I’ll primarily be contributing to the Guardian.

If you’re looking for something to occupy yourself while you wait for the results, why not take a read of the Tasmanian election guide, and if you find it useful, please consider signing up as a patron.

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Tasmanian Liberals take the lead in polls

Tasmania’s election is coming up this Saturday (check out my guide here!), and two recent polls suggest the campaign has shifted in favour of the Liberal Party.

Saturday’s Reachtel put the Liberal Party in the lead on 48%, followed by Labor on 32% and the Greens on 12.5%.

Today’s EMRS poll put the Liberal Party on 46%, followed by Labor on 34% and the Greens on 12%.

This is a clear trend of the Liberal Party picking up ground while Labor plateaus and the Greens drop.

The Greens have polled at least 15% at every poll until the end of last year, but the last three polls have had them between 12% and 13%. This chart does a good job of showing the recent trend.

The campaign has featured a big-spending effort to defeat Labor over their promise to roll back poker machines, and it seems plausible that this has had a strong effect. It’s also possible that voters who would prefer a majority government have judged that the Liberal Party has a better chance of reaching a majority. It’s likely both reasons are contributing to this shift.

If you haven’t had a look at my seat guide, I’d encourage you to take a look. There’s a page for each electorate, with local history, geography, results maps and results tables that can help you better understand each contest.

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Tasmanian election – nominations close

Nominations were announced today for the Tasmanian election. 109 candidates have nominated, with six parties running candidates.

This is a drop from 126 candidates running 2014, but it is still more candidates than ran in 2010 or 2006.

Labor, Liberal and the Greens are running full tickets across all five seats. Labor is actually running a sixth candidate in Lyons.

The Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) is running 12 candidates across three electorates, while the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers (SFF) party is running 11 across four electorates, and Tasmanians 4 Tasmania are running 4 candidates across Braddon and Denison. The Shooters are running multi-candidate tickets in Braddon and Lyons, but only running a single candidate in Denison and Franklin.

There are also six ungrouped independents running in three electorates.

The Palmer United Party and the Nationals ran candidates in 2014, but are not running this time (although you could argue that the JLN is the successor-party to PUP in Tasmania).

Denison and Franklin are shaping up as simple Labor-Liberal-Greens contests, with only four other candidates between the two electorates. They are joined by substantial JLN and SFF teams in Braddon and Lyons. JLN is running a ticket of four in Bass, but there’s no Shooters candidates.

I’ve collated the full list of candidates, which you can download here.

As usual, I’ve coded the gender of candidates. Of the parties running large numbers of candidates, Labor and the Greens are running more women than men: 15 out of 26 Labor candidates and 13 out of 25 Greens candidates are women. Just nine out of 25 Liberal candidates are women (36%), and the balance is even more skewed for the Jacqui Lambie Network (3 out of 12) and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers (2 out of 9).

All candidate names have now been updated on the seat guides, which you can read here.

Antony Green has also blogged about the candidate announcement, with additional historical information.

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Tasmania goes to the polls – March 3

It appears that the Tasmanian premier, Will Hodgman, will today call the state election for March 3. For the first time since 2002, the Tasmanian election won’t coincide with the South Australian election, set for March 17.

Current polling suggests the Liberal majority government (holding 15 out of 25 seats) will struggle to maintain its majority (although they do still have a chance). The balance of power in a hung parliament would likely be held by the Greens, although we can’t rule out the possibility of the Jacqui Lambie Network winning a seat. As has become common in Tasmanian elections, both major parties have ruled out governing with the Greens, which could lead to a messy outcome if neither side holds a majority. Kevin Bonham discussed this prospect in a blog post yesterday.

I have published a complete guide to the Tasmanian election. Here are the links to the five seat guides:

Each guide contains a list of candidates (to be updated when nominations close), along with an electorate history, past results, breakdowns of results into sub-areas, and maps showing those results.

Tasmania’s state electorates normally follow the same boundaries as federal electorates, but it’s worth noting that the recent Tasmanian federal redistribution has not yet been implemented for state elections. So this will be the last election using an electorate named “Denison”, and the new boundaries will first be used for the next federal election and then for the Tasmanian state election in 2022. These boundaries will likely be replaced by the time of the 2026 election.

This guide has been put together thanks to the donations of the 38 patrons who have signed up via Patreon. If you appreciate this website and would like to support my upcoming coverage of these two state elections, please consider signing up and chipping in a few dollars a month.

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Tasmanian election 2018 – read the guide

The Tasmanian election is due to be held by May 2018 – and if the last three elections are any guide, the election will likely be held in March.

In addition to the South Australian guide posted on Monday, I’ve now completed a similar guide for the five Tasmanian state electorates.

Here are the links to the five electorate guides:

If you find these guides useful, I’d appreciate if you chose to become a regular donor or give a one-off donation.