Last weekend stands as a perfect comparison between the two broad options in western democracy about how we organise our elections: do you go for a system of single-member electorates, or do you aim for a system that closely reflects each party’s vote in the seats in the Parliament?

In South Australia, we saw the Liberal Party poll 41%, with the ALP polling 38%. A further 7.8% voted for the Greens and 5.3% voted for Family First. As I write, the ALP is on track for 25 seats out of 47, with only 18 for the Liberal Party, and no seats won by either of the two significant minor parties. In addition, Antony Green has estimated that the ALP won approximately 48% to 48.5% of the two-party preferred vote. Despite this decisive win for the Liberal Party on both primary votes and two-party preferred vote, the ALP’s majority should allow them to govern without much trouble for the next four years.

In contrast, in Tasmania, the Liberal Party polled 39%, the ALP 37% and the Greens 21%. While the last few seats have not been determined, the collective wisdom has settled on a result of 10 Labor, 10 Liberal, 5 Greens, although a 10-11-4 or a 10-9-6 result is entirely possible. In contrast to  South Australia, the Tasmanian result very strongly correlates to the vote numbers.

It’s common to see mainstream media political reporters and commentators, as well as major party figures, bemoaning the prospect of a hung parliament and the ‘instability’ of minority government. Yet the Tasmanian result reflects the reality of Tasmanian politics: no-one won the support of the voters. No-one managed to get over 40%. In a single-member system, one of the parties would have managed to construct a majority of seats in the Assembly while 60% of voters had voted against them.

In contrast, the South Australian system constructs an artificial majority in Parliament for a party that didn’t receive the votes of 62% of voters. A single-member electoral system prizes giving total power to one political party over any questions of whether that reflects the voters’ wishes. In addition, the South Australian result gave power to the major party preferred by less voters, even in a two-horse race. It demonstrates that, in a system of single-member electorates, it is impossible to construct a result that can be considered ‘fair’.

South Australian electoral law goes to a lot of trouble to construct a ‘fair’ set of boundaries. A redistribution is held every four years and redraws the boundaries to ensure that a two-party preferred vote of 50% results in an even number of seats, supposedly to ensure that a party with a majority of the two-party preferred vote wins a majority of seats. The system was established following the 1989 election, when the Labor government held on with a one-seat majority despite polling 48.1% 2PP.

Last weekend’s result demonstrates the folly in trying to introduce the concept of fairness into a system that fundamentally ignores fairness. The 2010 boundaries were drawn based on the 2006 result, and assumed a uniform swing. Instead, the ALP lost a lot of votes in safe seats, not in marginal seats, as Possum has examined. This has resulted in a similar result as in 1989, with a long-term Labor government holding on while a majority of voters express  a preference for the opposition.

No electoral system can exactly reflect the voters wishes. It is possible that the ALP will win more seats than the Liberal Party in Tasmania. The key difference is that, in a single-member system, a distortion results in a majority government ruling while being opposed by a majority. In contrast, the Tasmanian system will mean that, regardless of the individual seat results, a majority in the Parliament will need to be made up of two of the three parties, and any of those combinations adds up to a solid majority of votes cast at the election.

If you want a system that actually reflects voters wishes in any way, you can’t use a system of single-member electorates which has such a checkered history of electing governments who are opposed by a majority of their constituents.

11:00pm – The ABC has now called every seat in South Australia, producing a result of 25 Labor, 18 Liberal and 4 independents. Looking at the results, however, it appears a bit early to call the seat of Bright, where the ALP is leading by 44 votes on the two-party preferred vote. The Liberal Party has gained four seats: Chaffey from Nationals MP and minister Karlene Maywald and the seats of Adelaide, Morialta and Norwood. The ALP has managed to hold on to four (five if you include Bright) seats that are safer than Morialta and Adelaide, where the ALP suffered swings of 12% and 15.2% respectively. Independents Geoff Brock, Kris Hanna and Bob Such have all won re-election, while in Mount Gambier independent candidate Don Pegler looks set to retain the seat previously held by retiring independent MP Rory McEwen. The following maps show the results across the state. The four Liberal gains are coloured in a darker blue then the 14 seats the party retained. Bright remains coloured white.

Results of the South Australian election in Adelaide. Liberal gains in Adelaide, Morialta and Norwood coloured dark blue, undecided seat Bright coloured white.

Results of the South Australian election. Liberal gain in Chaffey is coloured dark blue, independent seats of Frome and Mount Gambier coloured yellow.

10:27pm – Almost 30% counted for the SA Legislative Council, and the ABC still predicts 4-4-GRN-FF-D4D. If you follow the preference count, Dignity for Disabled only just squeeze ahead of fifth Labor and fifth Liberal with a strong preference flow. At the last point, the Fair Land Tax Party preferences push Dignity for Disabled ahead of the ALP, and then they overtake the Liberal Party on ALP preferences.

10:14pm – The Tasmanian exit poll was actually remarkably accurate. Remember that it predicted 9 Labor, 9 Liberal, 4 Greens and 3 undecided. As it stands, we are in exactly that position, and the three undecided seats are going down to the same parties the poll predicted: Braddon is Libs vs Greens, Denison is Libs vs Greens vs Wilkie, Franklin is ALP vs Greens. As I see it, the most likely result will be Libs winning in Braddon, Greens in Denison and ALP in Franklin, producing a result of 10-10-5. Embrace the chaos!

10:08pm – Focus on Franklin. The Liberals have won two seats for Will Hodgman and either Jacquie Petrusma or Tony Mulder. The ALP and Greens have both won a single seat and are in competition for the last seat. I tend to think David O’Byrne will win the seat. He has 0.46 quota in his own right, whereas almost the entire Greens vote has been locked up with Nick McKim.

9:52pm – Here’s a theory – it is in the interests of the ALP and Liberal Party to prove how unstable and unwise it is to elect minority parliaments. They could easily reach an agreement with the Greens that will provide stability, but a situation where a party governs without the numbers in the Assembly proves their point that minority governments are unstable. Ironically this would see major parties rewarded for acting recklessly with power. “Either give us a majority, or we’ll really screw things up”.

9:45pm – Let’s clear something up about the Tasmanian result. No-one has won. It doesn’t matter who wins the most seats, or the most votes. Neither major party managed to get over 40% of the vote, and more than one in five voters have gone to the Greens. The only sensible way that the Tasmanian voters’ wishes could be respected would be through a coalition of two of the three parties. The idea that a party could have a claim to govern on 39% of the vote is completely ridiculous.

9:42pm – With 12.7% counted for the South Australian Legislative Council, the ABC is projecting 4 Labor, 4 Liberals, 1 Greens, 1 Family First and 1 for Dignity for the Disabled. The Dignity for the Disabled seat would go to their #2 candidate Kelly Vincent, due to the death of their lead candidate Dr Paul Collier earlier in the week.

9:40pm – Focus on Braddon – The Liberal Party are on 2.69 quotas, the ALP on 2.45 and the Greens on 0.82. You would have to think that in the north-west ALP voters would tend to favour the Liberals over the Greens. In addition, the third Labor candidate at the moment is sitting MP Brett Whiteley, who should attract strong Labor preferences.

9:24pm – Focus on Bass – the two Liberal seats look set to go to former federal MP Michael Ferguson and sitting state MP Peter Gutwein, and Kim Booth will be re-elected in the sole Greens seat. On the Labor side Michelle O’Byrne will safely win re-election but the contest for the second Labor seat is close between Brian Wightman, Scott McLean and Brant Webb.

9:20pm – SA crossbench results – Geoff Brock is on 44% of the primary vote in Frome and set to retain the seat. Meanwhile Nationals minister Karlene Maywald looks set to lose in Chaffey. Kris Hanna in Mitchell has managed to stay ahead of the Liberals on primary vote, but we’re yet to see if this will be enough to put him over the ALP on preferences. In Mount Gambier the Liberal Party is leading over new independent candidate Don Pegler 41-37 with no information on preferences.

9:16pm – More about Lyons – it’s clearly going to be a result of 2 Labor, 2 Liberal and 1 Greens, but the specific candidates are not that clear. Tim Morris will clearly retain the sole Greens seat. On the ALP side, Michael Polley is on 0.78 quotas, Rebecca White on 0.62 and sitting MP David Llewellyn on 0.61, with another 0.57 quotas for the other three Labor candidate. On the Liberal side, former leader Rene Hidding is on 0.70 quotas, Mark Shelton on 0.5, with Jane Howlett on 0.42 and James Playstead on 0.38.

8:53pm – There are quite a few sitting MPs staring at defeat from their own party colleagues. In Denison Lisa Singh and Graeme Sturges look set to lose their seats, with the ALP’s Scott Bacon gaining a seat. In nearby Franklin David O’Byrne is coming second out of the ALP candidates, beating sitting MPs Daniel Hulme and Ross Butler. In Braddon, sitting Liberal MP Brett Whiteley has been overtaken by new candidate Adam Brooks, and will be in a fierce race with the Greens for the final seat. New Labor candidate Rebecca White has overtaken sitting MP David Llewellyn in Lyons, although there is a very small gap between them, and it will be a close count.

8:48pm – In Mitchell, with 55% counted, Hanna is clearly outpolling the Liberals by 2.5%, and the first two booths have shown a two-candidate preferred figure for Hanna vs. ALP of 50.7%.

8:42pm – Antony Green on Twitter has commented that the ALP’s two-party preferred vote in South Australia is about 48.5%. Even still, they are on track for a majority. So much for South Australia’s ridiculous process of drawing boundaries to ensure a ‘fair’ result. No fairness in single-member constituencies.

8:38pm – The Greens & Wilkie are both picking up again in Denison. Greens on 1.57 and Wilkie on 0.51.

8:29pm – Nick McKim has pushed Franklin into a new position as the strongest seat for the Greens, with 29% for the Greens. Almost all of that went to McKim himself. If that flows to the other Greens they could still win an extra seat there.

8:24pm – With 51% counted in Denison, the Greens have only gained 0.5%. That doesn’t sound right, although it’s possible the general statewide Greens swing was swallowed up by Andrew Wilkie, and you’d expect a lot of that to flow back. The ALP is on 2.30 quotas, with the Liberals on 1.68 and the Greens on 1.48, with Andrew Wilkie on 0.49. On those numbers you’d think whoever out of Helen Burnet or Andrew Wilkie comes out on top should defeat the second Liberal.

8:17pm – Mike Rann appears to have won a third term in South Australia. The ABC is predicting 25 seats with one in doubt. They have projected that the ALP has lost Morialta, Adelaide and Norwood, and have actually gained Davenport.

8:07pm – With 6.7% counted Kris Hanna is slightly outpolling the ALP on primary votes in Mitchell. The Liberals have jumped into first place and Hanna is currently in the top two.

8:01pm – A large increase in vote counted in Denison has seen the Greens fall into third place. They could still win two seats with Andrew Wilkie’s preferences.

7:40pm – With 2% counted statewide, the Greens are up 1.7% to 8.2% in South Australia. It’s still early, and it’s the wrong house, but that’s about what you need to get a Legislative Council quota. Meanwhile the Greens are up a whopping 7% in Tasmania to about 23% with 4% counted.

7:37pm – Also in Denison, Wilkie is on 0.66 quotas. This puts him in fourth place on primaries behind Cassy O’Connor, Matthew Groom and David Bartlett, beating other contenders such as Scott Bacon and Helen Burnet.

7:34pm – Almost 8% has been counted in Denison, and the Greens are still coming first on 32.6%, followed by the Liberals on 28.8% and Labor on 26.9%. Scott Bacon is clearly the second-ranking Labor candidate, and #2 Greens candidate Helen Burnet has a decent vote in her own right which she will need to win a second seat for the Greens.

7:32pm – It appears that in Light, one of the ALP’s most marginal seats, the ALP have actually gained a swing.

7:30pm – In Franklin, 2.7% has been counted. The Greens are coming second with the Liberals coming first, but the Greens vote is highly concentrated on Nick McKim, suggesting that many of these votes may scatter after McKim is elected.

7:22pm – Almost 6% counted in Bass, and it’s a similar position to Lyons, with it clearly heading for a 2-2-1 split. The Greens are just short of 1.5 quotas with ALP only just over 2 quotas.

7:21pm – Over 4% has been counted in Lyons and it looks pretty clearly on track for a 2-2-1 split, with the Greens on 1.25 quotas.

7:13pm – More votes have been counted at Franklin, and the Greens are topping the poll there too. With 1000 votes counted, Nick McKim is on 34%. Interestingly third Greens candidate Wendy Heatley is outpolling second candidate Adam Burling.

7:01pm – A very small number of votes counted in Denison have the Greens in first place and Wilkie polling over 10%, but these numbers are so small as to be meaningless.

6:58pm – The ABC TV feed has now been replaced with something else and according to Twitter the election feed will begin at 8pm. But my internet is playing up such that I’ll have to stick to Sky News.

6:36pm – Rationalist in comments has posted a link to the ABC TV coverage of the Tasmanian election. Thank god, because Tim Gartrell gets on my nerves on Sky News.

6:24pm – Sky News have Tim Gartrell waffling on about a poll, since there’s really nothing to say so far.

6:18pm – In Denison, the exit poll predicts 2 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Green and the last seat a contest between Liberal, Greens and Wilkie.

6:17pm – Sky News poll predicts 2-2-1 in Bass. In Braddon 2-2 for majors with Libs v Greens for last seat.

6:15pm – Sky News is now reporting a Tasmanian exit poll, predicting 9 Labor, 9 Liberal, 4 Greens and 3 too close to call. Sky’s reporter says Andrew Wilkie is performing well in Denison. I assume that the three undecided seats are in Denison, Franklin and Braddon.

6:10pm – Sky News is reporting an exit poll in Labor’s nine most marginal seats in South Australia, with the Liberals winning 53-47 in those seats. That follows a South Australian Newspoll showing the Liberals leading 52-48.

6:02pm – I will be liveblogging this evening from Sydney. Times are AEDT, which is Sydney time and also Hobart time. Polls are closing in Tasmania now, followed by South Australia in half an hour.

In South Australia, Mike Rann’s ALP is set to lose seats to Liberal leader Isobel Redmond. If Redmond can win power, she will become the first female Liberal premier in Australia, the first female Premier of South Australia and the first woman to win power from opposition in an Australian state. While Mike Rann’s majority is set to be slashed, the result will likely be either a slim Labor majority or a hung parliament, with Labor falling one seat short of a majority and relying on a crossbencher, such as ex-Labor independent Kris Hanna or Nationals MP (and Rann government minister) Karlene Maywald, to reach a majority. This would be a similar situation to the election results in 1989, 1997 and 2002. In the cases of 1989 and 1997, they saw the incumbent government retain power for one final term.

In Tasmania, the situation is very different. The Hare-Clark system, combined with the poor performance of the state Labor Party, have created a situation where no-one is predicting a majority for any party, and no-one even knows which party would have a better chance of doing so. We pretty know the result: Greens holding the balance of power in a hung parliament. What happens next is the interesting part. Even still, we don’t know what will happen in individual seats. The Liberals look set to gain second seats in Bass, Lyons and Franklin. In Braddon the Liberals and Greens are competing to take the third Labor seat. In Denison, all three parties are guaranteed only one seat, and will compete to win a second. The Greens are running a strong second candidate in Hobart Deputy Lord Mayor Helen Burnet. On the Labor side, polls have suggested Premier David Bartlett could even be in danger of losing his seat in Denison, where the ALP is running Scott Bacon, son of former Premier Jim Bacon, alongside Bartlett and two of his ministers.

While numbers vary, the Tasmanian polls are agreed on some key facts: the ALP has been hit hard, and the Greens are polling much higher than in the past. The ALP campaign was hurt hard this week when negative campaigning tactics backfired. The campaign, already gripped by panic, ran flyers and robocalls attacking the Greens policy on drug reform and on giving prisoners the right to vote, but the usually anti-Green media turned on the ALP over the tactics. While it is not yet clear who will win the key seats in Tasmania, the most interesting element of the process won’t begin until Sunday. The ALP and the Liberals have both insisted that they would not make a governing agreement with the Greens, and seem to be saying that they will let the party with the largest number of seats govern. This may be a short-term strategy to keep the Greens away from the levers of power, but sooner or later either the Greens need to reach some agreement with a major party to support its government, or the opposition major party will be forced to support the government to prevent the Greens bringing down the government. The process will be fascinating.

Consider this an open thread for election day. I will be liveblogging this evening as well as posting commentary on Twitter.

This would produce a result of 23 Labor, 21 Liberal and 3 independents. This would reflect the pattern of the 1989, 1997 and 2002 elections when no party managed a majority and independents supported the larger minority. On these numbers the ALP would probably scrape by, but would be vulnerable to by-elections or defections.

I have posted two maps showing how this changes the electoral map. The seven seat gains are coloured in light blue to distinguish them from the seats held by the Liberals already.

Greater Adelaide area.

South-eastern parts of South Australia. Chaffey and Mount Gambier can be seen on the eastern border of the state in light blue.

I have also now posted a tutorial explaining some of the ways you can use the Google Earth maps posted on this blog to make your own maps by overlaying maps and changing colours  and styles.

Have a read of those, and the flow of federal election seat profiles will resume shortly.

In addition I have also produced maps for the previous two redistributions. South Australia holds a redistribution after every election, so these maps cover elections from 1997 until the coming election.

You can download the maps at the following links:

• 1997 election
• 2002 election
• 2006 election
• 2010 election

Screenshot images from the new maps posted below the fold.

1997 South Australian election.

2002 South Australian election.

2006 South Australian election.

2010 South Australian election.