Prediction Archive

19

South Australia 2010: predictions

Following yesterday’s prediction of the results in Saturday’s Tasmanian election, I have now put together a prediction of the result in South Australia. I haven’t followed South Australia as closely as I have with Tasmania, so I have mostly made the changes based on the pendulum. The hardest choices were for the seats of Chaffey and Mitchell. I’ve predicted that Mitchell’s incumbency should allow him to overcome difficult circumstances. In contrast, I’m predicting that Nationals MP Karlene Maywald will be brought down by her connection to the Rann government in a conservative rural electorate. In addition, I have predicted that the ALP will lose Light, Mawson, Norwood, Newland and Morialta. I also have put Mount Gambier as a Liberal gain, due to the retirement of sitting independent MP Rory McEwen.

This would produce a result of 23 Labor, 21 Liberal and 3 independents. This would reflect the pattern of the 1989, 1997 and 2002 elections when no party managed a majority and independents supported the larger minority. On these numbers the ALP would probably scrape by, but would be vulnerable to by-elections or defections.

I have posted two maps showing how this changes the electoral map. The seven seat gains are coloured in light blue to distinguish them from the seats held by the Liberals already.

Greater Adelaide area.

South-eastern parts of South Australia. Chaffey and Mount Gambier can be seen on the eastern border of the state in light blue.

19

Tasmania 2010: predictions

I have previously made predictions of election results for a number of elections, including Queensland in 2009 and elections for the ACT, Canada and the United States in 2008. I thought it was about time to post predictions for this weekend’s elections in Tasmania and South Australia. I will post my prediction for South Australia tomorrow, along with maps showing how this would look. As for Tasmania, my overall prediction is:

  • Liberal – 10 (+3)
  • Labor – 9 (-5)
  • Greens – 6 (+2)

This would produce a hung parliament with the Greens determining which party forms government. This prediction would involve the Liberals and Labor winning two seats each in Bass, Braddon, Franklin and Lyons, with the Liberals and Greens winning two seats each in Denison.

Full predictions (including non-core predictions of individual winners) after the fold. I encourage readers to post their own predictions.

Elsewhere predictions have been made by Peter Tucker and Kevin Bonham.

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