The latest Newspoll on NSW state politics has the Labor Party collapsing to levels even lower than seen in the last century. With the Coalition on 43%, Labor on 26%, the Greens on 14% and Others on 17%. The 2PP figures are at 59-41 in favour of the Coalition, although with Labor on such a low level and the third-party vote on 31%, two-party-preferred calculations lose all meaning.
Compared to the last Newspoll in September-October, Labor’s vote has fallen another 3 points from 29, which has largely gone to the Greens, who have recovered to 14% after falling to 11% in the last poll. The Coalition has gained 1%, at the expense of the “others” vote, which fell from a peak of 18%.
The last poll was the first after Nathan Rees took over from Morris Iemma as Labor leader and Premier. Although Rees performed better with his personal figures, the poll was a new low for the ALP in regards to voting intention, with Labor falling below 30% for the first time and the 2PP swing from 52-48 to 56-44 in favour of the Coalition. Rees had a much lower disapproval rating and returned Labor to the lead in the Preferred Premier stakes. But those figures have been wiped out. Rees is up to 47% disapproval, almost at the 52% level Iemma polled in the first poll of 2008. Barry O’Farrell was the first Liberal leader to take the lead in Preferred Premier this decade in the last two polls of Iemma’s leadership, and he has returned to that role.
So what does it mean? Labor’s support has fallen to record lows and they are on track for a massive defeat. Antony Green has calculated that, according to the pendulum, the poll would give the Coalition 57 seats, a solid majority in the Assembly.
The polling figures also suggest that many previously safe Labor seats will be vulnerable to the Greens and Independents. The Greens are solidly polling a consistent 13-14% in five of the six polls this year, which would give them a fifth seat in the Legislative Council and puts them within range of winning Balmain and Marrickville in the Legislative Assembly. With 18% support for others, you would expect that more Labor seats in the Hunter and Illawarra in particular would be vulnerable to left-leaning independents, which could reduce the ALP to a rump.
Another remarkable trend is that the Greens are now polling more than half the Labor vote, with the Liberal-Labor margin now larger than the Labor-Green margin. The Greens aren’t going to overtake Labor in the next three years, but it underlines Labor’s dire position. There is a long way to run for this government, in which they could bounce back, although trends suggest that the party continues to fall further. We will have to see if Rees can turn his government around, and how the 2010 federal election impacts on NSW, and it’s far too early to make predictions.
More analysis can be found at Poll Bludger and Pollytics.
