New South Wales Archive

Deeply off the record…

Many commentators have reacted with great surprise to how long it took the Liberal Party to preselect candidates for the Western Sydney marginal seats of Lindsay, Greenway and Parramatta. Parramatta was held by the Liberals until 2004, Lindsay until 2007, and Greenway is still Liberal-held, but the redistribution moved it into the Labor column, leading the sitting Liberal member to contest the neighbouring seat of Macquarie.

Yet despite these seats’ recent record of electing Liberals, the party has only preselected for Lindsay this week, with preselections to come on Saturday in Greenway and Parramatta.

It appears some light has been shed on the delays today when Barry O’Farrell, state Liberal leader, appears to have accidentally sent a message out publicly on Twitter when it was only intended to be seen by Fairfax Radio’s Latika Bourke.

The tweet appears to be in reference to the timetable for preselection in those seats and the struggle to find candidates – which would explain the low profile of all of those announced as contenders.

But it is still very unclear what the ‘internal poll’ could be telling them. It would be no surprise that the ALP would be favourites to win those seats, despite the ALP’s recent bed-wetting over the possibility of losing Lindsay. Yet how bad could it be that the party couldn’t find a candidate willing to take a punt on getting a federal seat, or so bad that they wouldn’t bother finding a candidate with enough time to win the seat?

The tweet has now been deleted, but it is sure to be highly embarrassing, and does suggest that the Liberals are struggling to compete federally in Western Sydney after their 2007 defeat.

Update: GhostWhoVotes in comments has pointed out that the original tweet still exists, even though it has disappeared from O’Farrell’s Twitter feed. It seems it isn’t so easy to delete tweets that have been retweeted.

Guide to the Penrith by-election

I have now posted my guide to the Penrith state by-election, to be held on June 19 following the resignation of Labor MP Karyn Paluzzano. You should also check out the guide to the federal election, as I have now finished all seats in New South Wales and South Australia, for a total of 98 seats.

Seat profile #95: Mackellar

Mackellar is a safe Liberal seat on the northern beaches of Sydney. It covers suburbs such as Frenchs Forest, Dee Why, Narrabeen, Avalon and Collaroy.

Mackellar is held by senior Liberal Bronwyn Bishop, who has held the seat since 1994 and had previously served as a Senator for New South Wales. Bishop was once considered a leadership contender, but her chances quickly faded, and she served only as a junior minister in the first two terms of the Howard government. The seat is very strongly Liberal and she should have no trouble winning re-election in 2010.

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Seat profile #94: Bradfield

Bradfield is a very safe Liberal seat on the upper north shore of Sydney. Bradfield covers most of Ku-ring-gai council area as well as parts of Hornsby. Key suburbs include Turramurra, St Ives, Killara and Wahroonga.

Bradfield was previously held by former Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson, prior to his 2009 resignation. The seat was won by Liberal candidate Paul Fletcher at a 2009 by-election, winning comfortably in a race without a Labor candidate, despite a strong Greens campaign.

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Seat profile #93: Berowra

Berowra is a safe Liberal seat covering parts of northern Sydney. It covers parts of the Hills district and most of Hornsby council area, including Hornsby, Berowra, Cherrybrook and Pennant Hills.

The seat has always been held by the Liberal Party, and has been held by Philip Ruddock since 1993. Ruddock had previously held other seats since winning the 1973 Parramatta by-election, making him the longest-serving current member of the Australian Parliament by a decade, and the fifth longest-serving member of Parliament ever. Ruddock should easily win election in 2010.

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Seat profile #92: Mitchell

Mitchell is a safe Liberal seat in the Hills district of northwestern Sydney. The seat has always been held by the Liberals, and was held by Liberal backbencher Alan Cadman for over thirty years from 1974 to 2007. The seat was won in 2007 by prominent young right-wing factional warrior Alex Hawke. The seat covers Baulkham Hills, Castle Hill, Winston Hills and Kellyville. The seat should be comfortably retained by the Liberal Party in 2010.

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Seat profile #91: Parramatta

Parramatta is a Labor seat covering the largest centre in Western Sydney and surrounding areas. The seat is currently held by the ALP with a margin of just under 10%, but has a history of being a marginal seat, most recently being held by the Liberal Party up until the 2004 election. The seat is currently held by Labor MP Julie Owens.

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Seat profile #90: Blaxland

Blaxland is a safe Labor seat in southwestern Sydney. It covers the centre of Bankstown and surrounding areas, as well as parts of Fairfield, Holroyd, Parramatta and Auburn councils.

Blaxland was previously held by Paul Keating from 1969 until the defeat of his government in 1996. The seat was won by former Bob Carr advisor Jason Clare in 2007, who defeated sitting MP Michael Hatton for preselection.

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Seat profile #89: Chifley

Chifley is a safe Labor seat in northwestern Sydney, covering western parts of the City of Blacktown. Chifley has been held by Labor MP Roger Price since 1984, although Price is retiring in 2010. Chifley covers part of the centre of Blacktown and other nearby suburbs including Mount Druitt, Doonside and Rooty Hill. The ALP is standing union official Ed Husic at this year’s election, and he should easily win the seat.

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Seat profile #88: McMahon

McMahon is a seat in Western Sydney, covering substantial parts of Fairfield council as well as parts of Holroyd and Penrith councils. The seat is a renamed version of the seat of Prospect, which covered almost exactly the same area at the 2007 election. Prospect was a safe Labor seat ever since its creation in 1969, and McMahon is no different.

It is held by the ALP with a 13.8% margin, and should be safely won by sitting Member for Prospect Chris Bowen, who is Minister for Financial Services, Superannuation and Corporate Law and Minister for Human Services in Kevin Rudd’s cabinet.

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