Netherlands Archive

Dutch election this week

By
Ben Raue
 – June 6, 2010

The Netherlands is going to the polls on Wednesday to elect a new Parliament after the sitting government recently fell after failing to reach agreement about the Netherlands’ continued involvement in Afghanistan.

I haven’t been following this campaign closely, but a friend of mine has recently started a blog on Dutch politics. FiveThirtyEight today also published a good summary of the current situation in the Netherlands.

The Netherlands has a pure electoral system, with no constituencies or thresholds used, meaning that election results closely reflect the polls and don’t reflect different electoral races. Consider this an open thread to discuss the Dutch election, or indeed any other election other than the Australian federal election.

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Europe 2009 – Results wrap part 1

By
Ben Raue
 – June 9, 2009

Here is a brief summary of how the EU elections went in each country. Our first edition covers Ireland, the UK, Spain, Portugal, France and the Benelux countries.

  • Ireland - While Fianna Fail’s vote collapsed and Fine Gael’s vote rose, it didn’t dramatically alter the party’s performances. Each party lost one seat each, while Labour gained two. Sinn Fein lost their sole seat and the Socialist Party’s Joe Higgins was elected. One of the two independents was defeated.
  • Northern Ireland – Northern Ireland followed the pattern of electing one MEP from each unionist party and one from the more popular republican party, in this case Sinn Fein. However, in this case Sinn Fein for the first time topped the poll. This was partly due to the majority unionist vote being split three ways, with former DUP MEP Jim Allister running on the Traditonal Unionist Voice ticket.
  • Great Britain – Labour’s vote collapsed, losing 7% and coming third on 15.7% behind the Conservatives and the UK Independence Party. UKIP kept its vote steady at just over 16% while gaining an extra seat, while Labour lost 5 of its seats. The Liberal Democrats also suffered a 1.2% swing and lost one of their seats. The Green party gained 2.4% and came close to winning a number of extra seats but ultimately only managed to maintain their two seats. The British National Party managed to elect two MEPs in the North of England. Labour was beaten into second place in Wales for the first time in 91 years, and were also defeated by the Scottish National Party in Scotland. Labour came fifth behind the Conservatives, UKIP, Liberal Democrats and Greens in both South-East and South-West.
  • Portugal – The centre-right Social Democratic Party recovered from its massive 2004 defeat, winning 8 seats to the 7 seats won by the centre-left Socialist Party (which had won 12 in 2004). The Left Bloc gained two seats while the other two minor party coalitions maintained their existing two seats.
  • Spain – The 2004 election took place shortly after the election of the new Socialist government and the Madrid train bombings, and were a major defeat for the centre-right. This time around, the governing Socialists suffered a 5% swing while the People’s Party gained 1%. Overall, due to the reduction in MEPs, this resulting in the Socialists losing 4 seats and the People’s party losing 1.
  • France – The French result was a major victory for Nicolas Sarkozy’s centre-right Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) who gained an 11.2% swing to poll almost 28%, which gave them four extra seats. The opposition Socialist Party lost 12.4% of its vote, falling to 16.5%, which cut their number of MEPs from 31 to 14. The result was very strong for the Greens-led Europe Écologie, which polled more than double the 2004 Greens vote, winning 16.3%, almost overtaking the Socialists, and winning 14 seats (up from 6 in 2004). The centrist Democratic Movement lost one third of its vote and half its seats in comparison to the former UDF party. The far right National Front suffered similarly, losing 4 of its 7 MEPs. Socialist votes also went to the Left Front, which doubled its MEP contingent (bringing it to 4) and the New Anticapitalist Party, which polled over 4% but did not elect any MEPs.
  • Belgium Dutch-speaking – The result saw all five parties that won seats in 2004 lose votes. The centre-right Christian Democrats lost almost 5% of its vote, keeping its 3 seats. The liberal Open Flemish Liberals and Democrats lost 1.35%, but maintained their 3 seats. The far-right Flemish Interest (formerly Flemish Bloc) lost 7.3% of its vote after polling 23% in 2004 and lost one of their 3 seats. The Socialist Party fell to 13.2% with a 4.6% swing, and losing one of their 3 seats. The Greens were the only party to hold up, only losing 0.08% and maintaining a 7.9% vote, and their one seat. The remaining vote flowed to the new centre-right Flanders secessionist New Flemish Alliance (9.9%) and the right-wing List Dedecker, who polled 7.3%.
  • Belgium French-speaking – Three of the four main parties in the French-speaking region lost votes, all flowing to the local Greens (called ‘Ecolo’). The Socialist Party lost 7%, falling to 29.1%. The liberal Reformist Movement lost 1.5%, falling to 26%. The centre-right Humanist Democratic Centre lost 1.8%, falling to 13.34%. The far-right National Front’s vote halved from 7.5% to 3.5%. The  Greens gained 13%, polling 22.9% and gaining a second MEP.
  • Belgium German-speaking – Like the French-speaking region, the result was good for the Greens and bad for everyone else, with the incumbent Christian Social Party suffering a 10% swing, but they still safely won the sole MEP for the region.
  • Luxembourg – The six Luxembourg seats broke down between the parties the same as in 2004, with the Christian Social People’s Party winning 3 seats and the three other main parties winning 1 seat each. However, the centre-right CSVP suffered a 6% swing and the Socialist Workers’ Party lost 3%, while the Greens and Democratic Party both gained votes.
  • Netherlands - The Dutch result was strong for left-wing minor parties and the far-right. The far-right Party of Freedom polled almost 17% in their first European campaign, coming second and winning 4 seats. The liberal Democrats 66 went from 4.2% to 11.3%, winning 2 extra seats on top of their existing one. The Greens went from 7.4% to 8.9%, gaining a third seat. The centre-right Christian Democratic Appeal lost 4.4%, polling 20%. The Dutch Labour Party suffered most, falling from 23.6% to 12.2%, losing 4 of their 3 seats. The liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy also lost 1.3% of their votes, and one of their 4 MEPs in the process.
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Europe 2009 – Day 1 results

By
Ben Raue
 – June 5, 2009

Thursday June 4 saw voting in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. I haven’t seen any results from the UK for either local council elections in England or the European Parliament (which I believe will be counted on Sunday), however, we have got results for the Netherlands.

Based on exit polls, the result seems to be:

  • Christian Democratic Appeal (EPP) – 19.6%, 5 seats (-2)
  • Party of Freedom (Far-right) – 15.3%, 4 seats (+4)
  • Labour (PES) – 13.9%, 4 seats (-3)
  • People”s Party for Freedom and Democracy (ELDR) – 11.0%, 3 seats (-1)
  • Democrats (ELDR) – 10.2%, 3 seats (+2)
  • GroenLinks (GRN) – 8.8%, 2 seats (-)
  • Socialists (EUL) – 7.9%, 2 seats (-)
  • Christian Union (I/DEM) – 7.4%, 2 seats (-)

Meanwhile in the UK, the British Labour government doesn’t seem to be waiting for the expected disastrous election results for the party to start imploding with up-and-coming Cabinet minister James Purnell resigning from the cabinet and calling on Gordon Brown to quit:

We therefore owe it to our country to give it a real choice. We need to show that we are prepared to fight to be a credible government and have the courage to offer an alternative future.

I am therefore calling on you to stand aside to give our party a fighting chance of winning. As such I am resigning from government.

The party was here long before us, and we want it to be here long after we have gone. We must do the right thing by it.

I am not seeking the leadership, nor acting with anyone else. My actions are my own considered view, nothing more.

If the consensus is that you should continue, then I will support the government loyally from the backbenches. But I do believe that this question now needs to be put.

12:19pm – Update from both Netherlands and the UK. Justin-Paul has pointed out that the Dutch results might not go as the exit polls predict:

Okay, stop press. I’m taking a closer look at the Dutch results; it looks like the Greens have a chance of winning a third seat at the expense of Labour. Some of these results are unprecedented: both the Democrats and Greens outpolled Labour in Amsterdam, which is one of its key strongholds. The Democrats registered a massive 14% swing to go to 21%; the Greens got a more modest one of 2% to poll 20%. Labour just under 15%.

The Party for Freedom has polled some particularly disturbing results, coming first in a few other key Labour strongholds like Rotterdam.

In the UK, the first council to report is Bristol, where the result is:

Lib Dems = 36 (+4)
Conservatives = 17 (+4)
Labour = 16 (-8)
Greens = 1 (-)

For purpose of comparison, Bristol council covers four Westminster electorates, three held by Labour and one by the Liberal Democrats.

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Europe 2009 – Netherlands

By
Ben Raue
 – June 1, 2009

The Netherlands is the largest of the Benelux countries – all of whom were founding members of the EU – and will elect 25 MEPs on Thursday 4 June, which is a reduction of two MEPs from 2004. The country uses the D’Hondt method, and while votes are counted at a council level, they are tallied nationally, so there is only one electorate. There is no threshold, meaning that the quota to win a seat is around 4%. Voting is voluntary, so polls are open from 7:30am to 9:00pm in an effort to get as many people to the polls as possible, especially considering recent apathy towards European elections. Most of the country votes using special voting computers so the results will be known very quickly.

It’s probably worth mentioning at this point that I lived in the Netherlands from 1997-2005 and was a member of GroenLinks, the largest Green party there from 2001-2005, though I recently rejoined. I am a dual citizen, so I was able to cast a postal ballot in these elections.

First, let’s start with the current breakdown of the current 27 Dutch MEPs:

  • Christian Democrats (EPP): 7
  • Labour (PES): 7
  • Liberals – Freedom and Democracy (ALDE): 4
  • Greens (EG/EFA): 2
  • Socialist Party (EUL-NGL): 2
  • Transparent Europe (EG/EFA): 2
  • Christian Union / Calvinist Reformed (IND/DEM): 2
  • Democrats ’66 (ALDE): 1

Transparent Europe, led by Paul van Buitenen, a former EU employee who blew the whistle on a massive corruption scandal in the early 90s, has imploded due to infighting and will not be taking part in these elections.The Party for the Animals, an animal rights party, narrowly missed out on a seat last time and could come close again. It currently holds two seats in the national parliamen.

All eyes, however, will be on the right-wing nationalist Party for Freedom which is led at a national level by Geert Wilders, a former Liberal MP. He left his party after making several Islamophobic statements and sat as an independent until the 2006 elections, when his newly-formed Party of Freedom won 9 seats out of 150. At the moment, the Party for Freedom is polling 15-16% of the vote in national polls which would give them 24 seats and make them the third-largest party at the next elections. In the EU polls, it’s expected to win 3 seats (instead of 4 as the national polls would suggest) because pro-EU voters are far more likely to go to the polls than Eurosceptics like Wilders’s supporters. Nevertheless, current opinion polls suggest that Labour will lose 3 of their 7 seats and the Liberals to be reduced by one to 3 seats; the beneficiaries will be the Democrats (+1 seat) and the Party for Freedom (+3 seats). No other seats are expected to change hands.

It’s worth looking at how much Dutch politics has changed in the last ten years, because it explains to some extent why someone like Geert Wilders can have such a strong following in a country usually seen as one of the world’s most tolerant and progressive. Back in 1999, the Dutch goverment was made up of a “purple” coalition between Labour, Liberals and Democrats which had just won a second term in office. The Christian Democrats were in opposition for the first time in decades, and weren’t sure what do with themselves. This led to the Greens being seen as the official opposition; in the 1998 national elections they increased their numbers from 5 to 11. The EU elections of 1999 reflected this situation as the Greens increased their representation from 1 to 4 MEPs while the coalition parties and the Christian Democrats lost seats or remained stable.

By the 2004 EU elections, however, the Dutch political system had been shaken up by the right-wing populist Pim Fortuyn who was assassinated by an animal-rights activist a week before the 2002 national elections. Fortuyn struck a chord with voters sceptical of the pro-immigration policies of the major parties, and those who felt that politicians were not in touch with the rest of the populace. His party, Pim Fortuyn’s List (LPF), won 26 seats at the elections to become the second-largest party in parliament and entered into a governing coalition with the Christian Democrats and Liberals, forming arguably the most right-wing government the Netherlands had ever seen. It did not last long, as the LPF was a fledgling party and massive infighting ensued once it lost its charismatic leader. The coalition fell apart in a few months and new elections held in early 2003 saw the LPF reduced to 8 seats as the Christian Democrats and the Liberals formed a new coalition with the Democrats. This make-up continued until 2006, when the Democrats withdrew their support for controversial immigration minister Rita Verdonk (Liberals) over her treatment of Ayaan Hirsi Ali, former Liberal MP, women’s rights campaigner and outspoken critic of Islam. This eventually led to new elections, and the current coalition goverment is made up of the Christian Democrats, Labour, and the Christian Union.

In the middle of all this mess, Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh was brutally murdered by an Islamic extremist in broad daylight while cycling to work in Amsterdam. Van Gogh was notorious for insulting as many people and groups of people as possible, calling Muslims “goatfuckers”, and referring to Jesus as “that stinking fish from Nazareth”. He had also been taken to court accused of making anti-Semitic statements. Van Gogh’s murder further fuelled xenophobic and Islamophobic sentiments among some of the populace.

Meanwhile, Geert Wilders left the Liberals, formed the Party for Freedom (attracting several former LPF members and supporters) and began a campaign of what can only be described at times as Muslim-baiting. While Pim Fortuyn called Islam a “backward” culture, Wilders has gone several steps further, making an anti-Qu’ran film called Fitna and calling for a ban on the construction of new mosques in the Netherlands as well as a five-year ban on immigrants from “non-western” nations from entering the Netherlands. He claims to hate Islam, but not Muslims in general. The Party for Freedom will most likely join one of the Eurosceptic groups in the EU parliament, but Wilders has denied any affiliation with neo-fascist parties like the National Front in France.

Which brings us to 2009. With the next set of national elections over a year away, there is still plenty of time for another shake-up should anything happen to Wilders, who will face court soon accused of inciting hatred and encouraging discrimination. He has also received numerous death threats and is constantly guarded. It’s hard to tell how long it will take for Dutch politics to stabilise again.

If this post raised some eyebrows in interest, the book Murder in Amsterdam by Ian Buruma is an excellent overview of the last several years in Dutch politics.

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