I have now posted a guide to the federal election in the seat of Macarthur. Macarthur is now Labor’s most marginal seat, one where preselection contests are heated in both parties. It’s also the seat where I ran in 2007.
Just days after the Liberal Party actually conducted a local preselection to choose their candidate for Macarthur, the ALP has delved into the unedifying spectacle of dividing up the federal electorates of southwestern Sydney without any consideration of what any actual members might think about their candidates, or local links to seats.
According to reports in the Australian, Sydney Morning Herald and Macarthur Chronicle, the musical chairs have been triggered by desperate attempts to save Laurie Ferguson after his seat of Reid was effectively abolished in the recent redistribution.
Reports suggest that Chris Hayes, Member for Werriwa, could be shifted from his safe seat to nearby ultramarginal Macarthur, with Werriwa going to a member of the Left. The Australian reports a deal to impose the Left’s Damien Ogden, 31, who appears to be a former Sutherland Council candidate (nowhere near Werriwa’s territory in Liverpool and Campbelltown) in exchange for which the Right would choose the candidate for Hughes, which covers parts of Liverpool, Bankstown and Sutherland and is held by a slender margin by Liberal MP Danna Vale.
However, the Chronicle reports that the “soft Left” is pushing Wendy Waller, Mayor of Liverpool, in Werriwa, and a number of reports suggest Ferguson, who has no links with that part of Sydney and whose entire career has been based in Granville, could be shifted to Werriwa. The Campbelltown branch of the ALP has clearly stated its support for Chris Hayes continuing in the seat.
Hayes has reportedly refused to move, understandable considering how he would be moving from a safe seat that he currently holds to an ultramarginal one. While he does appear to have the support of local members, that appears unlikely to be of any relevance to the ALP.
Meanwhile, the deal is tied up with agreements around the parcelling out of Greenway, Macquarie, Fowler and Throsby between the factions. None of them seem to involve any actual members ever having a say or seeing candidates tested in rank-and-file preselections.
In Macarthur, apart from Hayes, candidates named include 2007 candidate Nick Bleasdale, local paediatrician Mike Freelander, Deputy Mayor of Camden Greg Warren and paralympian Paul Nunnari. While Bleasdale claims strong local support, he was effectively preselected in 2007 without any opposition in a climate where the party did not think Macarthur was winnable, and can expect to face fiercer competition this time around. What may ultimately doom Bleasdale’s chances are his seeming lack of factional support or political capital. While his candidature saw a major swing to the ALP in 2007, no-one would claim that was due to the individual candidate, rather than a mixture of national factors and a backlash against Pat Farmer.
It appears that the party machine is enthusiastic about Mike Freelander as a contender, although he would likely be pushed aside too if it was needed to get Chris Hayes out of Werriwa (a terrible deal for Hayes, of course). With ALP preselections being decided by a panel of the Prime Minister and five factional headkickers in Canberra, what ALP members in Western Sydney actually want will not come into consideration, but they will surely take it lying down, like they always do.
Former Mayor of Campbelltown Russell Matheson has defeated sitting Liberal MP Pat Farmer in preselection for the seat of Macarthur. Farmer has become the first federal Liberal MP to be defeated for preselection in five years, since Malcolm Turnbull defeated Peter King for Wentworth before the 2004 election.
Matheson defeated Farmer by a margin of 22-9, which was a surprise to none. Farmer has become increasingly unpopular since the 2007 election, when he suffered a 10% swing against him, barely held on, and then proceeded to attack Macarthur voters and move his family to Mosman.
You’d have to think Matheson will struggle to hold on to the seat. While Farmer’s popularity has taken a hit through his antics and his closeness to the Howard government, Macarthur was one of the only seats in 2007 where the ALP polled higher in the Senate than in the House of Representatives he would still have his own personal vote. Considering that his party has turned on him and turfed him out, you would have to think Matheson will miss that substantial personal vote that can be exploited by the ALP.
Former Campbelltown mayor Russell Matheson has begun a preselection challenge against Pat Farmer, Liberal member for Macarthur, nominating for the party’s preselection, which will take place in the next few weeks.
Matheson has been a Campbelltown councillor since 1991, and in that time has served numerous terms as Mayor, generally through a power-sharing alliance with the Labor Party.
The ALP generally wins a large number of seats on Campbelltown council, but usually short of a majority. In recent times they have kept a lock on the Campbelltown mayoralty by forming an alliance with a small number of independents, including Matheson since at least the 1999 election.
Matheson’s ticket won a second seat on Council at the 2004 election, with Paul Lake joining him on the council. After the 2004 and 2008 elections Matheson struck a deal to share the mayoralty with the ALP with each party having the mayoralty for two years. Matheson was most recently Mayor in 2008-9.
First of all, I think it is very unlikely that Farmer will beat off Matheson for preselection. The local party in the area has little fondness for Farmer. Charlie Lynn MLC basically runs the local Liberal Party in Macarthur, and he has openly stated that Farmer would not regain preselection in 2010. Farmer’s move to Mosman in late 2007 additionally put him offside with a lot of locals.
Assuming Matheson wins preselection with the support of Lynn and his ally Campbelltown councillor Jai Rowell, he’s going to face an almighty challenge to hold onto the seat for the Liberal Party. The redistribution has made the seat notionally Labor, and current trends would suggest a swing towards the ALP can be expected.
In addition, while Farmer’s popularity has declined, there is surely a sizeable proportion of the electorate who continue to vote for him personally as a likeable local celebrity seemingly above day-to-day politics. While they may be willing to consider a new Liberal candidate, if Farmer is pushed out in a preselection coup, Matheson will suffer from that.
There also seems to be an assumption that Matheson’s status as former Campbelltown mayor will be of benefit to his federal candidacy, but the evidence doesn’t bear that out.
Matheson’s ticket only polled 10.6% at the last Campbelltown Council election. He polled highest in Raby (my own suburb) with 26.5%, with the next two best booths in nearby Eschol Park and Eagle Vale. None of these booths are in Macarthur on either 2007 or draft 2010 boundaries. On the other hand, the worst booths for Matheson are also in Werriwa, while his more average booths lie in Macarthur, so overall he polled about the same in Macarthur and Werriwa (10.8% in Macarthur, 10.6% in Werriwa). Campbelltown City is evenly divided between the two federal electorates.
So while Matheson has his own constituency, it has never been particularly large and his most loyal supporters are outside the electorate. It seems likely that Matheson will struggle to match the personal profile of Pat Farmer and will have little impact on the likely swing to the ALP which should give them the seat, even if Matheson’s profile is much higher than a Labor candidate such as Nick Bleasdale.
Update: Matheson insists he will remain an independent councillor before admitting that he will be closely aligned to the three Liberals. I don’t know how that’s supposed to work. It seems very likely this is a ploy by Liberal council leader Jai Rowell to gain a fourth vote on council by giving away a poisoned-chalice preselection.
