The Daily Telegraph this morning reports a story that the NSW Liberal Party have approached recently-retired rugby league player Hazem El Masri as a candidate for the state seat of Lakemba at the 2011 state election.
It’s a fascinating story indicating how ambitious the NSW Liberal Party has become. El Mazri is a popular figure in the Lakemba area, as a former Bulldogs player, and if elected would be the first Muslim MP in the NSW Parliament, and possibly in all of Australia. Update: Nathan Lambert in comments points out that “Adem Somyurek in Victoria is a Labor MLC and an Australian Muslim.” Rockdale councillor Shaoquett Moselmane has regularly been considered next in line to take a Labor seat in Parliament, but has been repeatedly pushed aside for more prominent figures.
Of course, we have no idea has El Masri would perform as a campaigner in an election environment, but it’s safe to assume that he would grab attention like no other Liberal candidate in that part of Sydney and massively increase the Liberal Party’s presence in inner south-western Sydney. Lakemba is one of the most Muslim seats in the state. The 2003 seat boundaries were used for the 2006 census, which showed just over 15% of the population are Muslim, as well as a large number of Eastern Orthodox residents.
On the other hand, it’s worth recognising the scale of the task for El Masri to win the seat. Lakemba is not any old safe Labor seat, it is incredibly safe. At the 2007 election, the ALP polled almost 84% on two-party-preferred terms. Even after a large swing away from them at the 2008 Lakemba by-election following Morris Iemma’s resignation, the ALP still managed to outpoll the Liberal Party by more than two-to-one.
While you would expect El Masri to poll quite well, he would need a 20.5% swing as well as keep hold of the 14% swing to the Liberal Party gained in last year’s by-election.
On reflection, you would have to say that El Masri would probably not be able to win the seat, although it may be impossible to judge what could happen if the Labor Party continues to be as dysfunctional as they are now come March 2011. Rather than the Liberals trying to use El Masri to gain an extra seat in Parliament, it seems more likely that the party is using El Masri to open up another front on the ALP and force them to focus their limited resources on a heartland seat like Lakemba.
