Italy Archive

Europe 2009 – Results wrap part 2

By
Ben Raue
 – June 10, 2009

Here we go again:

  • Austria – It was a bad result for both parties in the governing grand coalition, with the centre-right People’s Party suffering a 2.7% swing, and the Social Democratic Party suffering a 9.5% swing. The SPO lost 3 of their 7 MEPs and the People’s Party remained steady on 6 seats. The Greens also lost a quarter of their vote, although they maintained their two seats. The independent Hans-Peter Martin came third with a 3.7% swing, and won a third seat for his ticket. The far-right Freedom Party doubled their vote to over 12%, and won a second seat. Thenew far-right party Alliance for the Future of Austria also polled 4.6% but failed to win a seat.
  • Cyprus – Both major parties, Democratic Rally and Progressive Party of Working People, gained votes with swings of about 7% for each party, although they only maintained the 2 seats that each party held. The Democratic Party lost a quarter of its seat, holding on to its one seat. The Movement for Social Democracy lost 1% of the vote, but managed to win a seat for the first time, after the centrist European Party lost a majority of its vote, and its sole MEP.
  • Denmark – The result was bad for the centre-left Social Democrats, suffering an 11% swing and losing one of their five seats, although they remained in first place. The governing centre-right Venstre party gained 1%, polling 20% and maintaining 3 seats. Greens-affiliated Socialist People’s Party almost doubled their vote to 15.85%, winning a second seat. The right-wing Danish People’s Party went from 6.8% to 15.3%, winning a second seat. The June Movement collapsed from 9% to 2.4%.
  • Finland – Finnish results were bad for all three major parties, with them all suffering negative swings, varying from a 0.5% swing against the National Coalition Party to 4.4% against the Centre Party. The parties that benefited included the Green League and the Libertas-aligned True Finns. The three major parties each lost one seat, with the National Coalition Party and Centre Party holding 3 seats each, and the Social Democrats holding 2. The Green League gained a second seat, and True Finns and Christian Democrats each won a seat for the first time. The minority Swedish People’s Party maintained their one seat while Left Alliance lost their one seat.
  • Germany – The German result saw a small swing to the left, even though the centre-right still won a decisive victory. After a massive defeat in 2004, the Social Democratic Party maintained its 23 seats, while the CDU/CSU coalition won 42, down 7 from 49 in 2004. Those seven seats went to minor parties with the centrist (although right-leaning) Free Democratic  Party winning 5 extra seats, for a total of 12. The Greens also gained one extra seat, winning 14. The Left Party also won more votes than the previous Party of Democratic Socialism, winning an 8th MEP.
  • Italy – The result was major victory for Silvio Berlusconi’s new party the People of Freedom. The party won 29 seats, up from 27 seats for the party’s predecessors in 2004. The result was also strong for the right-wing regionalist Lega Nord, winning 5 extra seats to add to their existing 4. The liberal party Italy of Values increased their seats from 2 to 7. In contrast, a number of small party coalitions were excluded after failing to pass the 4% threshold, including the coalition of socialists and Greens and the communist coalition.
  • Malta – The result in Malta was a decisive victory for the Labour Party, who easily won three of the five seats, with the Nationalists maintaining their two seats. While the Greens came close to winning a seat in 2004, with almost 10% of the vote, their vote dropped back to their normal level of 2.3%.
  • Sweden - Results for the major parties remained largely steady, with the Social Democrats holding 5 seats and the Moderate Party 4 seats. The centrist People’s Party gained a third seat, and the Greens gained a second seat. The Left Party lost more than half of its vote and one of their two seats. The eurosceptic June List lost three-quarters of its vote and all three of their seats. The Pirate Party polled 7.1% in their first election and won a seat.
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Europe 2009 – Italy

By
Ben Raue
 – May 27, 2009

Italy will elect 72 MEPs (down from 78) in 2009, voting on Saturday 5th and Sunday 6th June. Italy elects its MEPs via 5 constituencies (pictured below right), and seats are allocated by constituency for all parties who win over 4% of the national vote. In 2009, the constituencies will elect the following numbers of MEPs:

  • Central – 14
  • Islands – 8
  • North-East – 13
  • North-West – 19
  • South – 18

There have been quite dramatic changes to the Italian party system in recent years. Italian national elections have seen Italy’s parties coalesce into two broad coalitions, but these have not necessarily been replicated in European elections.

The 2004 election took place during the second term of conservative Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. The sitting President of the European Commission (effectively head of government for the EU) Romano Prodi was stepping down to reenter Italian national politics.

The centre-left coalition United in the Olive Tree covered much of the centre-left, although it was not as extensive as national left-wing coalitions, excluding Greens and Communists. As it was a coalition, it’s constituent parts joined different European parties. Their MEPs joined the following European parties:

  • Party of European Socialists – 16
  • Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe – 6
  • European People’s Party – European Democrats – 3

On the other side, Berlusconi’s party Forza Italia (European People’s Party) won 16 seats, and the far-right National Alliance (Union for Europe of the Nations) won 9 seats.

Other parties winning seats were:

  • Communist Refoundation Party (United European Left) – 5
  • Union of Christian Democrats (EPP-ED) – 5
  • Lega Nord (UEN, formerly Independence/Democracy) – 4
  • The Greens (European Greens) – 2
  • Party of Italian Communists (UEL) – 2
  • 6 others in ALDE
  • 2 others in EPP-ED
  • 2 others

Since 2004, a lot has changed in Italy. Berlusconi was defeated by Prodi in 2006, before Prodi’s government fell in 2008 and saw Berlusconi reelected. The two largest parties on both sides of politics have also merged, creating the Democratic Party on the left and the People of Freedom (created from Forza Italia and the National Alliance) on the right.

In addition the more left-wing parties have coalesced into two coalitions, the Communist-dominated Anticapitalist Left and the Socialist and Green listed, running as “Left and Freedom”.

Most recent polls have People of Freedom clearly leading, polling in the high 30s or low 40s. In comparison, the constituent parties polled 31% in 2004. In contrast, the Democratic Party is polling 25-26%. The Olive Tree polled 31% in 2004. Although it’s worth noting some socialist parties who ran under Olive Tree in 2004 are not part of the Democratic Party, so it’s hard to judge if a 26% vote would be a backward step for the party. Neither People of Freedom or the Democratic Party has yet to determine which Europarty they will join, as both parties were created by mergers of parties who were part of different Europarties, but it appears they will likely join the respective major centre-left and centre-right coalitions.

The vote for far-right northern regionalist party Lega Nord has also jumped from 5% in 2004 to 9-10% in recent polls. The liberal party Italy of Values (ALDE), which polled about 2% in 2004, is polling 8-9%. The communist Anticapitalist Left polled about 8% in 2004, but is polling around 4%. The socialist-green coalition Left and Freedom is also polling lower than its 2004 performance.

It appears this election will see a shift to the right, and a strong gain for the European People’s Party, as the post-fascist National Alliance is brought into its coalition and the new People of Freedom gains ground on the left.

Correction: This post originally said that I couldn’t find the 2009 MEP numbers and had posted the 2004 MEP numbers per constituency. The numbers actually were the 2009 numbers.

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