Indonesia 2009 Archive

Indonesians elect a president

By
Ben Raue
 – July 8, 2009

Indonesia is at the polls today to elect their president in the second direct election of their president. In 2004, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) defeated sitting President Megawati Sukarnoputri. This election sees three tickets running. Under Indonesian electoral law, candidates must have the support of parties with at least 20% of the seats in Indonesia’s parliament. This has limited the field to a small number of candidates.

April’s parliamentary election was a strong victory for SBY’s Democratic Party, winning over 20%, which made them the largest party in a deeply fractured party system. This allowed SBY to be nominated solely with the support of his party, but the Democratic Party has built a coalition of 314/560 seats to nominate SBY for President. The two largest opposition parties have also stitched together the numbers to nominate two candidates to oppose SBY.

The Indonesian Democratic Party – Struggle (PDI-P) has nominated former President Megawati Sukarnoputri. Golkar, the party of former dictator Soeharto, has nominated sitting Vice-President Jusuf Kalla, while General Wiranto, who was Golkar’s 2004 presidential candidate, is running as Kalla’s running mate.

If a candidate gets over 50% today, then they win, otherwise there will be a runoff on September 8 between the top two candidates. All four recent polls I have seen put Yudhoyono in first place, and I have little doubt that Yudhoyono will come first in the race. Polls vary between those giving Yudhoyono a massive majority (67-70%) and giving him a slim plurality. Most polls also put Kalla ahead of Megawati, although this isn’t clearcut.

I tend to think Yudhoyono will fall short of winning a majority tonight, and he’ll be facing off against Kalla in a runoff. Both Kalla and Megawati have agreed to support each other in a runoff against SBY, although I tend to think Megawati will be a much weaker opponent than Kalla, considering that SBY polled over 60% in the 2004 runoff against her.

Update: While official results won’t be announced for a few weeks, exit polls suggest SBY has polled 60%, giving him a solid victory and averting the need for a runoff.

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Indonesia goes to the polls

By
Ben Raue
 – April 9, 2009

It’s hard to find solid information, but a number of polling companies have produced exit polls, and according to the Jakarta Post’s coverage of the exit polls, they all put Yudohoyono’s party leading with about 20%, with Megawati’s IDP-S coming second with around 15% and Golkar (the party of the late dictator Suharto) polling around 13%. In comparison, Golkar came first in 2004 with 21.6%, IDP-S second with 18.5% and Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party came fifth with 7.5%.

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World election news – April 7

By
Ben Raue
 – April 7, 2009

We’ve got a bunch of global elections taking place over the next two months. I have posted an electoral calendar in the sidebar. These include elections in South Africa, India and Iceland, a parliamentary election in Indonesia, a referendum on Daylight Saving in Western Australia, and a state by-election for the seat of Fremantle in Western Australia. In order to cover the stories in all of these campaigns, I’m gonna start a regular post covering them all. I may go more indepth on each election.

  • Indonesia goes to the polls this Thursday to elect its national Parliament. Sitting president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s Democrat Party is leading in the polls on 27%, up from 7% at the 2004 election, which will make it easier for Yudhoyono to run on his own for President. Jakarta is three hours behind AEST, meaning that, if this story is correct, we should see most of the results come in on Thursday night. I’ll try and cover it on the night. The best story I have found to wrap up the state of the parties is this one in the Wall Street Journal.
  • Google has launched a fantastic website for the upcoming Indian election, including a brilliant Google Map (although I can’t find a way to download it into Google Earth). Have a play.
  • Fairfax’s WA Today has a great article from last week laying out the issues we have played out on the blog this week regarding the possible Liberal candidacy in the Fremantle by-election, as well as raising the issues Peter Tagliaferri may have in getting Labor preselection for the seat.
  • In South Africa, ANC party president and presidential candidate Jacob Zuma has dodged the latest criminal charges, with the National Prosecution Authority dropping charges against the embattled frontrunner just two weeks out from the election.
  • Less than three weeks out from Iceland’s parliamentary election, it’s worth looking at the polls. While one poll in January put the Left/Green Movement in first place, most polls since then have put the Social Democratic Alliance. Last week’s poll saw the SDA on 29.4%, Left Green on 27.2%, the right-wing Independence Party on 25.4% and the centrist Progressive Party on 10.7%.
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India and Indonesia update

By
Ben Raue
 – February 7, 2009

In today’s Sydney Morning Herald, the surprisingly-large “upcoming elections in large Asian countries whose name begins with an I” has a couple of articles of interest for election junkies.

In Indonesia, the Herald has reported that President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is staring down a shadowy electoral challenge from army officers:

Displaying his famed Javanese circumlocution, Dr Yudhoyono called in senior military and police officers to the State Palace last week and, in the presence of the media, revealed his concern about a rumoured “ABS” campaign.

“ABS,” he said, stood for “Anyone But S”. Who “S” was, Dr Yudhoyono would not say, although it seems a clear reference to his own campaign for re-election. Moreover, he looked the officers in the eye and, as the TV cameras rolled, said he did not believe the rumour, before giving them a stern lecture about the importance of political neutrality during this coming legislative and presidential polls.

Indonesian democracy is still barely a decade old, and this year will be only the second ever direct presidential election, which means there is little in the way of strong party structures and political traditions in the country, and it’s not yet clear whether Yudhoyono’s current dominance is a sign of his likely re-election, or just the fact that the campaign is yet to commence. It seems bizarre that a national presidential campaign could be conducted in the next six months when no-one is yet to discover the name of the possible candidate.

Meanwhile, in India, the Herald has focused on the ill-health of Congress leader and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Dr Singh has been hospitalised for the past two weeks.

The Congress party-led governing coalition insists that Dr Singh is making a rapid recovery and that he will return to work soon. However, he is unlikely to figure much in the election campaign already gathering momentum.

Instead, Congress will rely heavily on its president, Sonia Gandhi, and her son, Rahul, to spearhead the Government’s re-election effort.

“Congress depends very heavily on Sonia and Rahul Gandhi,” said Sanjay Kumar, a political analyst at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies. “They are the only ones they have with a genuine nationwide appeal.”

Rahul’s father, Rajiv Gandhi, grandmother Indira Gandhi and great grandfather Jawaharlal Nehru were all prime ministers. Dr Singh’s sudden withdrawal from the political fray at such a crucial time has triggered speculation that Rahul, the heir to this great political dynasty, may be installed as prime minister if Congress defies the odds and does well at the polls.

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2009 election preview: Indonesia

By
Ben Raue
 – January 15, 2009

Indonesia will go to the polls during 2009 for their second direct presidential election and to elect the new Indonesian Parliament. The legislative election will take place on April 9, with the first round of the presidential election in July. In the likely case that no candidate wins a majority, a presidential runoff will be held in September 2009.

Indonesia directly elected its president for the first time in 2004. The system involves a direct vote of all Indonesian citizens, followed by a runoff. The legislature includes a 560-member People’s Representative Council and a 128-member Regional Representative Council, both of which are elected on a provincial basis using proportional representation.

The election in 2004 saw a divided result in the Parliament, with the largest faction, Golkar, winning less than one quarter of the lower house. The sitting President Megawati Sukarnoputri saw her party, Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle, come second, followed by a number of other parties, including the Democratic Party, which came fourth with 57 seats.

The presidential election was contested by five candidates. Former general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (or SBY) came first with 33.58%, leading over the sitting President with 26.24% and General Wiranto of Golkar with 22.18%. The runoff saw SBY defeat Megawati, with 60.9% of the vote. Between 106-113 million voters voted in the three election rounds.

Thirty-eight parties are contesting the legislative election, from a wide variety of positions, making it hard to predict results. At least thirteen candidates are running for President, including sitting President Yudhoyono, and his two predecessors Megawati and Abdurrahman Wahid. General Wiranto, who came third in 2004, is also considering running.

There has not been a great deal of opinion polling done in Indonesia, although a January 2009 poll put SBY well in front on 43%, with Megawati trailing on 19% and all other candidates on 5% or less. This makes Yudhoyono the clear front-runner to win a second term as President in July and September.

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