By-elections Archive

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Batman/SA election night live

Batman by-election results

CandidatePartyPrimaryPrimary %Swing2PP votes2PP %2PP Swing
Yvonne GentleRise Up Australia18952.562.56
Ged KearneyLabor3122642.228.013948353.382.1
Alex BhathalGreens3047041.195.573448346.62-2.1
Kevin BaileyConservatives47246.396.39
Tegan BurnsPeople’s Party3580.480.48
Debbie RobinsonLiberty Alliance9571.291.29
Teresa Van LieshoutIndependent8751.181.18
Adrian WhiteheadIndependent6170.830.83
Mark McDonaldSustainable Australia73711
Miranda SmithAnimal Justice21072.851.42

Primary booths reporting: 44/52
2CP booths reporting: 44/52
Last updated at: 23:06

11:23pm – As for South Australia, the Liberal Party has won government, almost certainly with a majority. There is, however, a handful of seats still in play. The Liberal Party could win as many as 26 seats, but is leading in 25.

The upper house will see the major parties and the Greens hold steady, while the rest of the crossbench shifts. The Dignity Party has lost their sole seat, while the Conservatives have lost one of the two seats they inherited from Family First, with both those seats going to SA Best. The new government will need either SA Best or the Greens to pass legislation, in addition to the other party, or one of the other two members. One of these members, John Darley, was allied with Nick Xenophon when he succeeded Xenophon in the upper house in 2007 and when he won re-election in 2014.

11:19pm – I’m going to finish up this liveblog now, with a summary of each election. Firstly, Batman.

I’ll be back in a few minutes with a separate post showing the maps for Batman, but the quick summary is that we are still waiting for some pre-poll votes, as well as quite a lot of postal votes, but they hold no hope for the Greens. On current numbers, Ged Kearney has gained a 2.1% swing to Labor.

There was a very clear trend where the Greens gained small swings in northern booths, while Labor gained large swings at the southern end, including a gobsmacking 34% swing in Northcote West. We just received the result from the Northcote pre-poll booth, which produced a 6.7% swing to Labor.

10:27pm – Current numbers suggest that Labor and Liberal will each maintain their four upper house seats, with two SA Best members and one Green. So that’s a loss for Dignity Party’s Kelly Vincent and the Conservatives’ Robert Brokenshire.

10:04pm – We’ve now got the votes in the Thornbury pre-poll in the centre of Batman, with Labor gaining a swing of 2.8% in that booth. This has properly shut the door on the Greens there.

10:01pm – So there are 23 seats which are locked on for the Liberal Party, with them looking good to win Newland. They are behind, but still with a shot, in Mawson, while Heysen is up in the air. So they could end up on as many as 26 seats. Even if they don’t win any of these seats, the independent MP in Mount Gambier should give them the numbers they need.

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9:31pm – I’ve been focusing on analysing data at the Guardian liveblog but here’s where things stand at 9:30:

  • Labor looks set to win the Batman by-election with a swing of over 1%. We’ve just started receiving pre-poll votes, but there’s no evidence of a shift in the vote.
  • The Liberal Party look set to win a majority in the South Australian election, with a few seats just firming up now. SA Best may not win any seats, with only one seat still in play for the third party.

7:41pm – Things don’t look good for Alex Bhathal and the Greens in Batman. Nearly every booth is swinging to Labor after preferences, with some large swings in southern booths.

7:11pm – After three booths, the swing to the Greens after preferences is 0.88%.

7:07pm – First three booths for the Greens in Batman include two large booths in Labor-friendly Reservoir. Overall the Greens vote is up 8.9%, while Labor is up 2.2%.

6:38pm – And polls have now closed in South Australia. Still no data from Batman.

6:00pm – Polls have just closed in the by-election for the federal seat of Batman in Melbourne’s inner north. Polls will close in half an hour for the South Australian state election, with polls closing in three hours in the lower-profile Cottesloe state by-election in Perth. I’ll be using AEDT times for my coverage tonight. I’ll also be dropping in to the Guardian’s election night liveblog.

For the Batman by-election I will be posting overall results (top of the page), which include swings based on the vote in 2016 at the booths reported so far. This can be extrapolated to determine projected final votes. Hopefully this is useful.

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Super saturday – election day thread

Polls have now opened in the South Australian state election and the federal Batman by-election, and will be opening in the state by-election in Cottesloe within the next half-hour.

This post is mostly to provide a place to discuss today’s events, but I did want to touch briefly on the two statewide polls released last night for South Australia.

Both have very similar numbers, with the Liberal Party leading on 34%, Labor on 31%, and SA Best on 16% (Reachtel) or 17% (Newspoll). We know that Newspoll has dialled down their numbers for SA Best to reflect the fact that they were running everywhere (the last poll had them on a statewide figure of 27% but only 21% if you exclude voters who can’t vote for them), presumably Reachtel is similar.

A vote of 16-17% would be very good for a minor party, and will undoubtedly be enough to win some seats, but it’ll be a small bench and suggests that Nick Xenophon may struggle to win Hartley (as a local poll has emphasised).

I’ll be running a liveblog here while also contributing to the Guardian’s liveblog. The main thing I plan to include here is a model matching the booths in Batman. Of course, expect some booth results maps late in the night (this time I’m confident I’ll get access to the data on the night).

Good luck voting!

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Cottesloe by-election coming up on March 17

There will be a state election for the seat of Cottesloe in Western Australia on March 17, to elect a successor to former Liberal premier Colin Barnett. He had announced his retirement in December, with the election date announced yesterday.

This election will coincide with the South Australian election, and is the third election scheduled for March, with a possibility that the Batman federal by-election will also be held in March.

The by-election will likely be a contest between the Liberal Party and the Greens, but the Liberals will likely retain the seat with ease.

Read the guide to the Cottesloe by-election.

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Bennelong by-election live

CandidatePartyPrimaryPrimary %Swing2PP votes2PP %2PP Swing
Tony RobinsonLiberty Alliance6230.860.86
Wesley FolitarikSustainable Australia8271.141.14
James JanssonScience Party9021.251.25
John AlexanderLiberal31,90144.08-9.233919554.16-5.66
Kristina KeneallyLabor26,29036.335.973317245.845.66
James PlatterPeople’s Party1490.210.21
Justin AlickThe Greens5,0006.91-2.40
Anthony ZiebellAffordable Housing6220.860.86
Anthony FelsNon-Custodial Parents1160.160.16
Joram RichaConservatives3,2514.494.49
Gui CaoChristian Democratic2,2993.18-3.83
Chris GoldingAustralian Progressives3860.530.53

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11:07 – Last contribution for tonight is this map of the election results by booth. It shows a very clear difference in terms of the swing to Labor. There were swings of over 5% across the Eastwood and Epping area, with much smaller swings in the Ryde area. I’ll return tomorrow with a sum-up post.

9:29 – Just returned after a bit of a break. We now have all of the ordinary booths and most of the local pre-poll centres. The result is very clear – the Liberal Party’s margin has been reduced from 9.7% to around 4.2%, but John Alexander will hold on comfortably. The swing was clearly the biggest in Eastwood and Epping – the most multicultural parts of the seat. Others will undoubtedly do more in-depth analysis of this question in coming days, but it’s certainly plausible that the Liberal Party was harder-hit with the Chinese and Korean communities.

8:12 – Things have slowed down, although there’s still a bunch of booths yet to come. One thing worth noting is that the swing against the Libs is much bigger on the primary vote than after preferences. Part of this is probably due to the almost 5% of the vote going to the Conservatives. This has meant that quite a lot of those votes lost by the Liberal Party as primary votes were won back as preferences, and has increased the Liberal share of minor candidate preferences.

7:56 – This race is definitely over. Now that we have correct numbers, we can see that the biggest swing to Labor happened in Eastwood and Ryde, with the smallest swing in West Ryde.

7:51 – Sorry, I think I had a data error with the sub-area swings. Should be fixed now, but the swings are much more variable and not so clear-cut.

7:47 – The swing in Gladesville has fallen back into line with the rest of the seat. Not sure what happened there.

7:39 – I think that might have been Macquarie Park which increased the swing over 5%.

7:36 – Another booth has increased the swing to over 5%. Maybe a bit early to call this by-election on small booths, but Labor still has a long way to go.

7:33 – I should note that my two-party-preferred result is the actual figure now, not a projected figure. The swing is based on projections. This explains why the AEC has Alexander on 56.05% while I have him on 57.17%, but with the same swing. The numbers are the same.

7:28 – The Carlingford booth had an 11.7% 2PP swing to Labor, which has increased the overall 2PP swing to 3.7%. Still a long way short of what is needed.

7:20 – We have five booths reporting preferences, and only one of them shows a swing of more than 5% to the ALP. While the swing is sizeable, it does appear that the Liberals are likely to win.

7:18 – We now have nine primary vote booths, and there has been a sizeable drop in the Liberal vote, but right now it doesn’t look like enough to turf out Alexander – the Labor vote is up 5.1%, while the Liberal vote is down 8.8%.

7:08 –  The first booths are Marsfield and Ryde. There’s an 11.6% swing to Labor on primary votes in Marsfield and 4% in Ryde.

6:00 – Polls have just closed in the Bennelong by-election. I’ll be covering this by-election live tonight, hopefully including some projections and geographic breakdowns (although I’m still finishing them off). We should start having results between 6:30 and 7pm.

Results by sub-area

Area% of 2016 voteALP %LIB %ALP 2PP %LIB 2PP %ALP 2PP swing
Eastwood87.5734.5839.1147.3152.697.42
Epping85.9031.2940.6844.2555.756.07
Gladesville98.4929.0547.4439.9560.053.22
Other votes0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Pre-poll126.4136.5340.2348.0451.964.46
Ryde93.7231.5543.3343.2756.732.75
West Ryde101.8335.9936.8249.2450.763.76
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Bennelong and New England guides posted

In addition to the complete guide to this weekend’s Queensland state election, I’ve now posted guides to the federal by-elections in New England (December 2) and Bennelong (December 16). Enjoy!

Bennelong

New England

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Read more about the upcoming by-elections

There are four by-elections coming up in the next six weeks in Australia’s two largest states.

I posted guides to two of these four by-elections last month, and the other two guides have now been posted. I’ve also added candidate lists for the first two.

By-elections will be held in the NSW seats of Blacktown, Cootamundra and Murray on October 14 after the resignations of their respective MPs. All three of these MPs were former ministers, and included one former party leader and one former deputy leader.

A by-election will also be held in the Victorian seat of Northcote on November 18 after the death of Labor MP Fiona Richardson in August.

Blacktown

Former NSW opposition leader John Robertson resigned from parliament in August 2017. Labor should easily retain this seat.

Cootamundra

Former Nationals minister Katrina Hodgkinson resigned from parliament in September 2017. The Nationals will likely retain this seat, but they will be challenged by the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party.

Murray

Former Nationals deputy leader Adrian Piccoli resigned from parliament in September 2017. The Nationals would normally be strong favourites to hold Murray, but will face a strong challenge from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party.

Northcote

Labor’s Fiona Richardson held on to Northcote by a 6% margin against the Greens in 2014. The seat is one of the marginal Labor-Greens contests in the inner city, and the Greens have ambitions to gain the seat.

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NSW by-elections in Blacktown and Cootamundra

We’re due for two state by-elections in New South Wales later this year, and I’ve just finished guides for both electorates, which you can read now.

Blacktown

Former NSW opposition leader John Robertson has announced plans to resign. Labor should easily retain this seat.

Cootamundra

Former Nationals minister Katrina Hodgkinson announced plans to resign in late July. The Nationals will likely retain this seat, but they will be challenged by the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party.

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NSW by-election guides complete

I’ve been absent over the last two weeks as I’ve been moving house. This has unfortunately prevented me from covering the aftermath of the WA state election as much as I would’ve liked, and slowed down work on other elections.

I’ve now completed a guide to the Gosford by-election in New South Wales, and added candidate lists to the Manly and North Shore by-elections. All three of these by-elections will be held on Saturday April 8.

Read the by-election guides here.