Bennelong Archive

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Bennelong – different swings but no big change

There wasn’t much suspense in last night’s by-election results – it was clear early on that Labor wasn’t coming close to the swing they needed to win the seat. There was a sizeable swing (approximately 5.7% after preferences) which dented the Liberal margin. If this swing was repeated at an election the current government would easily lose its majority, but it would be dangerous to extrapolate this result to a general election. Federal polling has suggested that Labor is up by between 2% and 5%, so the by-election isn’t far outside of this range.

The most interesting part of the results was the geographical variation. My pre-election guide divided the electorate into five areas, and there was a big difference in the swings between these areas:

Area% of 2016 voteALP %LIB %ALP 2PP %LIB 2PP %ALP 2PP swing
Eastwood87.5734.5839.1147.3152.697.42
Epping85.9031.2940.6844.2555.756.07
Gladesville98.4929.0547.4439.9560.053.22
Ryde93.7231.5543.3343.2756.732.75
West Ryde101.8335.9936.8249.2450.763.76
Pre-poll126.4136.5340.2348.0451.964.46
Other votes0.000.000.000.000.000.00

The swings were substantially larger in Eastwood and Epping, in the north-western corner of the seat. This is very obvious when these swings are plotted on a map (you can also toggle to see the two-party-preferred total).

These areas have the largest Chinese and Korean populations in the seat. There was a lot of attention paid to that community in the campaign, and a possible shift of support from Liberal to Labor in that community. I’m not going to say that this is the reason for the larger swing, but it’s certainly consistent with that theory.

This is the last election for 2017, but I will be back next week with some small data projects. I’m still seeking donors to support this website in 2018, with a target of 50 donors by the end of this month. If you want to sign up please go to Patreon to sign up.

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Bennelong by-election live

CandidatePartyPrimaryPrimary %Swing2PP votes2PP %2PP Swing
Tony RobinsonLiberty Alliance6230.860.86
Wesley FolitarikSustainable Australia8271.141.14
James JanssonScience Party9021.251.25
John AlexanderLiberal31,90144.08-9.233919554.16-5.66
Kristina KeneallyLabor26,29036.335.973317245.845.66
James PlatterPeople’s Party1490.210.21
Justin AlickThe Greens5,0006.91-2.40
Anthony ZiebellAffordable Housing6220.860.86
Anthony FelsNon-Custodial Parents1160.160.16
Joram RichaConservatives3,2514.494.49
Gui CaoChristian Democratic2,2993.18-3.83
Chris GoldingAustralian Progressives3860.530.53

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11:07 – Last contribution for tonight is this map of the election results by booth. It shows a very clear difference in terms of the swing to Labor. There were swings of over 5% across the Eastwood and Epping area, with much smaller swings in the Ryde area. I’ll return tomorrow with a sum-up post.

9:29 – Just returned after a bit of a break. We now have all of the ordinary booths and most of the local pre-poll centres. The result is very clear – the Liberal Party’s margin has been reduced from 9.7% to around 4.2%, but John Alexander will hold on comfortably. The swing was clearly the biggest in Eastwood and Epping – the most multicultural parts of the seat. Others will undoubtedly do more in-depth analysis of this question in coming days, but it’s certainly plausible that the Liberal Party was harder-hit with the Chinese and Korean communities.

8:12 – Things have slowed down, although there’s still a bunch of booths yet to come. One thing worth noting is that the swing against the Libs is much bigger on the primary vote than after preferences. Part of this is probably due to the almost 5% of the vote going to the Conservatives. This has meant that quite a lot of those votes lost by the Liberal Party as primary votes were won back as preferences, and has increased the Liberal share of minor candidate preferences.

7:56 – This race is definitely over. Now that we have correct numbers, we can see that the biggest swing to Labor happened in Eastwood and Ryde, with the smallest swing in West Ryde.

7:51 – Sorry, I think I had a data error with the sub-area swings. Should be fixed now, but the swings are much more variable and not so clear-cut.

7:47 – The swing in Gladesville has fallen back into line with the rest of the seat. Not sure what happened there.

7:39 – I think that might have been Macquarie Park which increased the swing over 5%.

7:36 – Another booth has increased the swing to over 5%. Maybe a bit early to call this by-election on small booths, but Labor still has a long way to go.

7:33 – I should note that my two-party-preferred result is the actual figure now, not a projected figure. The swing is based on projections. This explains why the AEC has Alexander on 56.05% while I have him on 57.17%, but with the same swing. The numbers are the same.

7:28 – The Carlingford booth had an 11.7% 2PP swing to Labor, which has increased the overall 2PP swing to 3.7%. Still a long way short of what is needed.

7:20 – We have five booths reporting preferences, and only one of them shows a swing of more than 5% to the ALP. While the swing is sizeable, it does appear that the Liberals are likely to win.

7:18 – We now have nine primary vote booths, and there has been a sizeable drop in the Liberal vote, but right now it doesn’t look like enough to turf out Alexander – the Labor vote is up 5.1%, while the Liberal vote is down 8.8%.

7:08 –  The first booths are Marsfield and Ryde. There’s an 11.6% swing to Labor on primary votes in Marsfield and 4% in Ryde.

6:00 – Polls have just closed in the Bennelong by-election. I’ll be covering this by-election live tonight, hopefully including some projections and geographic breakdowns (although I’m still finishing them off). We should start having results between 6:30 and 7pm.

Results by sub-area

Area% of 2016 voteALP %LIB %ALP 2PP %LIB 2PP %ALP 2PP swing
Eastwood87.5734.5839.1147.3152.697.42
Epping85.9031.2940.6844.2555.756.07
Gladesville98.4929.0547.4439.9560.053.22
Other votes0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Pre-poll126.4136.5340.2348.0451.964.46
Ryde93.7231.5543.3343.2756.732.75
West Ryde101.8335.9936.8249.2450.763.76
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Bennelong and New England guides posted

In addition to the complete guide to this weekend’s Queensland state election, I’ve now posted guides to the federal by-elections in New England (December 2) and Bennelong (December 16). Enjoy!

Bennelong

New England