Mawson – SA 2018

LIB 3.2%

Incumbent MP
Leon Bignell (ALP), since 2006.

Geography
Southern fringe of Adelaide and rural areas to the south of Adelaide. The seat covers the Adelaide suburbs of Aldinga, Aldinga Beach, Port Willunga, Willunga, Sellicks Beach, Tatachilla and McLarens Flat, as well as the towns of Yankalilla, Myponga, Sellicks Beach and Cape Jervis, as well as the entirety of Kangaroo Island.

Redistribution
Mawson shifted south, becoming less urban and taking in large rural areas to the south of Adelaide. Mawson lost Noarlunga Centre and Hackham West to Reynell, and lost Noarlunga Downs, Hackham and Huntfield Heights to Kaurna. Mawson then gained Yankalilla, Myponga, Sellicks Beach, Cape Jervis and Kangaroo Island from Finniss, and Aldinga and Aldinga Beach from Kaurna. These changes significantly changed the seat’s margin, from 5.6% for Labor to 3.2% for the Liberal Party.

History
Mawson has existed since the 1970 election. The ALP and Liberal Party have exchanged the seat back and forth, with the ALP winning the seat a majority of the time.

Two successive Labor MPs held the seat from 1970 to 1979. In 1979, the Liberal Party’s Ivar Schmidt won the seat for one term, losing in 1982.

Susan Lenehan won the seat for the ALP in 1982. She went on to serve as a minister from the late 1980s until 1993. In 1993, she attempted to move to the new seat of Reynell, but lost the race.

The Liberal Party’s Robert Brokenshire replaced Lenehan in Mawson in 1993. He went on to win re-election in 1997, and served as a minister from 1998 until the government’s defeat in 2002. Brokenshire then served as a shadow minister, until he lost his seat in 2006.

Brokenshire went on to join the Family First Party and was appointed to fill a casual vacancy in the South Australian Legislative Council in 2008. He was re-elected to the Legislative Council at the 2010 election.

Brokenshire lost Mawson in 2006 to the ALP’s Leon Bignell. Bignell was re-elected in 2010 and 2014.

Candidates

Assessment
Mawson is a very marginal seat. It’s also a seat targeted by Nick Xenophon’s SA Best party, who have hopes of performing well in this area, which overlaps with the party’s federal seat of Mayo. The Nick Xenophon Team polled 32.6% in Mawson at the 2016 Senate election: better than all but four other state seats.

2014 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Stephen Annells Liberal 8,012 37.3 +1.9 44.2
Leon Bignell Labor 9,666 45.0 -0.8 33.0
Katie Wright Greens 1,843 8.6 +1.8 11.4
Geoff Doecke Family First 1,944 9.1 +1.4 8.9
Others 2.4
Informal 695 3.1

2014 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Stephen Annells Liberal 9,540 44.4 -1.0 53.2
Leon Bignell Labor 11,925 55.6 +1.0 46.8

Booth breakdown

Booths in Mawson have been divided into four areas: north-east, north-west, Yankalilla and Kangaroo Island.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three out of four areas, ranging from north-east to Kangaroo Island. Labor won 58% in the north-west.

The Greens vote ranged from 9.5% in the north-east to 14% on Kangaroo Island.

Voter group GRN prim % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
North-West 11.8 42.1 5,913 26.8
North-East 9.5 54.9 5,018 22.8
Yankalilla 12.8 61.3 2,580 11.7
Kangaroo Island 14.0 71.3 2,185 9.9
Other votes 11.1 56.3 6,337 28.8

Two-party-preferred votes in Mawson at the 2014 SA state election

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3 COMMENTS

  1. My prediction: Possible Liberal gain (notional win), especially with the addition of the territory from Finniss, while NXT polled really well here at the 2016 federal election, SA-BEST have slid in the polls a little.

    Don’t underestimate Leon Bignell (or ALP marginal seat holders in SA in general though).

  2. As in the above map, Bignell only won 4 of the 15 booths. But this time it was enough to win the overall (ordinary) vote.

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