ALP 8.4%
Incumbent MP
Chris Picton, since 2014.
Geography
Southern Adelaide. Kaurna covers the southern coast of Adelaide from Christies Beach to Maslin Beach, as well as inland suburbs including Hackham, Noarlunga Downs and Old Noarlunga.
Redistribution
Kaurna shifted north-east, losing Port Willunga and Aldinga Beach to Mawson, and gaining Hackham, Huntfield Heights, Noarlunga Downs and Old Noarlunga from Mawson. These changes increased the Labor margin from 7.7% to 8.4%.
History
Kaurna has existed since the 1993 election. The electorate was won by the Liberal Party in 1993, and has been held by the ALP since 1997.
Lorraine Rosenberg won the seat for the Liberal Party in 1993, despite the seat on paper being a notional Labor seat.
John Hill won the seat for the ALP in 1997. He served as a minister in the Labor government from 2002 to 2011, and was re-elected at the 2002, 2006 and 2010 elections.
Hill retired in 2014, and was succeeded by Labor candidate Chris Picton.
Candidates
- Simon McMahon (Liberal)
- Sean Cullen-MacAskill (Greens)
- Chris Picton (Labor)
Assessment
Kaurna is a reasonably safe Labor seat.
2014 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Chris Picton | Labor | 8,844 | 43.4 | -5.9 | 46.1 |
| Ben Caudle | Liberal | 6,233 | 30.6 | -2.9 | 32.0 |
| Maureen Cullen | Greens | 2,041 | 10.0 | +1.2 | 8.8 |
| Layla Nahavandi | Family First | 1,347 | 6.6 | +1.2 | 7.5 |
| Kym (Richo) Richardson | Independent | 1,899 | 9.3 | +9.3 | 5.6 |
| Informal | 716 | 3.4 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Chris Picton | Labor | 11,740 | 57.7 | -1.2 | 58.4 |
| Ben Caudle | Liberal | 8,624 | 42.3 | +1.2 | 41.6 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Kaurna have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 57.9% in the south to 63.1% in the north.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 63.1 | 5,534 | 27.8 |
| South | 57.9 | 5,155 | 25.9 |
| Central | 58.5 | 4,266 | 21.5 |
| Other votes | 54.2 | 4,917 | 24.7 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Kaurna at the 2014 SA state election
My prediction: Labor hold.