LIB 28.7%
Incumbent MP
Peter Treloar, since 2010.
Geography
Flinders covers western parts of South Australia. The electorate covers the South Australian coastline from Franklin Harbour to the Western Australian border, covering the Eyre Peninsula and the Nullabor Plain. The largest town in the seat is Port Lincoln, as well as the towns of Ceduna, Cleve, Cummins, Elliston, Port Lincoln, Streaky Bay and Tumby Bay.
Redistribution
Flinders contracted slightly: losing the easternmost part of the electorate, including Cowell, to Giles. This change cut the Liberal margin from 29.2% to 28.7%.
History
The electorate of Flinders has existed as a single-member electorate since 1938. In that time the seat has never been held by the ALP. For most of its history, Flinders has been held by the Liberal Party and its predecessor, apart from a period when it was held by the National Party.
The seat in 1938 was won by Edward Craigie, who had been an MP in the area for the Single Tax League since 1930.
Craigie lost in 1941 to the Liberal and Country League’s Rex Pearson. The seat was then held by the LCL continuously from 1941 to 1973.
The National Party’s Peter Blacker won the seat in 1973. He was the sole National MP in the South Australian parliament during his time in the seat. He held the seat until his defeat in 1993. The 1993 election saw the inclusion of Kangaroo Island in Flinders for the first time, before it was removed in 1997.
Liz Penfold defeated Blacker in 1993, winning the seat back for the Liberal Party. She held the seat until her retirement in 2010.
The Liberal Party’s Peter Treloar won the seat in 2010, and was re-elected in 2014.
Candidates
- Ian Dudley (Greens)
- Peter Treloar (Liberal)
- Julie Watson (Labor)
- Tony Parker (Conservatives)
Assessment
Flinders is the safest Liberal seat in South Australia.
2014 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Peter Treloar | Liberal | 14,994 | 72.0 | +14.0 | 71.8 |
| Mathew Deane | Labor | 3,214 | 15.4 | -0.1 | 15.6 |
| Grant Wilson | Family First | 1,313 | 6.3 | +1.5 | 6.4 |
| Felicity Wright | Greens | 1,299 | 6.2 | -0.7 | 6.3 |
| Informal | 505 | 2.4 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Peter Treloar | Liberal | 16,480 | 79.2 | +3.0 | 78.7 |
| Mathew Deane | Labor | 4,340 | 20.8 | -3.0 | 21.3 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Flinders have been divided into four parts: east, north, west and the Port Lincoln area.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 75% in Port Lincoln to 86% in the east.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Port Lincoln | 74.8 | 7,288 | 36.6 |
| North | 80.7 | 3,280 | 16.5 |
| West | 84.0 | 2,649 | 13.3 |
| East | 86.0 | 2,259 | 11.3 |
| Other votes | 78.0 | 4,451 | 22.3 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Flinders at the 2014 SA state election
My prediction: Easy Liberal hold.