Elder – SA 2018

LIB 4.3%

Incumbent MP
Annabel Digance, since 2014.

Geography
South-Western Adelaide. Elder covers the suburbs of Colonel Light Gardens, Melrose Park, Mitchell Park, Clovelly Park, Clapham, Panorama, Pasadena and St Marys.

Redistribution
Elder shifted west, losing Warradale and Oaklands Park to Gibson, Park Holme to Morphett and Ascot Park and Edwardstown to Badcoe. Elder then gained Clapham, Panorama, Pasadena and St Marys and the remainder of Colonel Light Gardens from Waite and Cumberland Park from Ashford. These changes increased the seat’s margin from 1.8% for the ALP to 4.3% for the Liberal Party.

History
Elder has existed since the 1993 election. The seat has been held by the ALP since 1997.

The seat was drawn as a marginal Labor seat in 1993, but was won by the Liberal Party’s David Wade. In 1997, Wade lost to the ALP’s Patrick Conlon.

Conlon became a minister in 2002 when Labor formed government, and served as a minister until he moved to the backbench in early 2013.

Conlon retired in 2014, and Labor’s Annabel Digance won the seat.

Candidates

Assessment
Elder has changed dramatically since the last election, with the Liberal position improved by 6%. The Liberal Party will have an advantage, but Labor’s sitting MP will be a strong contender.

2014 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Carolyn Habib Liberal 8,828 41.8 +2.5 47.2
Annabel Digance Labor 8,350 39.5 -1.8 34.2
Paul Petherick Greens 1,990 9.4 -1.7 10.9
Cosimo Russo Family First 1,035 4.9 +0.3 4.4
Nick Schumi Dignity for Disability 910 4.3 +4.3 3.2
FREE Australia 0.1
Informal 787 3.6

2014 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Carolyn Habib Liberal 10,168 48.2 +0.1 54.3
Annabel Digance Labor 10,945 51.8 -0.1 45.7

Booth breakdown

Booths in Elder have been divided into three areas: north, south-east and south-west.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two areas, polling 54.7% in the north and 58.6% in the south-east, while Labor managed 56.8% in the south-west. The Greens vote ranged from 9.3% in the south-west to 11.9% in the north.

Voter group GRN prim % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
North 11.9 54.7 8,212 34.1
South-East 10.8 58.6 5,337 22.2
South-West 9.3 43.2 4,862 20.2
Other votes 11.0 56.9 5,659 23.5

Election results in Elder at the 2014 SA state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

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1 COMMENT

  1. My prediction: Ugh… another contest where SA Best have made it hard… Given the sitting ALP member, she has an advantage, although the east of the seat is good Liberal territory. Liberal gain/notional hold, but could go either way.

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