Surfers Paradise – QLD 2020

LNP 19.8%

Incumbent MP
John-Paul Langbroek, since 2004.

Geography
Gold Coast. Surfers Paradise covers the central Gold Coast suburbs of Surfers Paradise, Benowa, Broadbeach, Bundall, Paradise Waters, Main Beach, the Southport Spit and parts of Ashmore.

History
The seat of Surfers Paradise has existed since 1972. Barring a single by-election, the seat has always been won by either the Country/National party or the Liberal Party, and has been held by two leaders of the conservative side of politics.

The seat was first won in 1972 by the Country Party candidate, Gold Coast mayor Bruce Small. Small stepped down as mayor in 1973 and returned to the post in 1976.

In 1977 Small was defeated by the Liberal Party’s Bruce Bishop. Bishop held the seat for one term, losing in 1980 to National Party candidate Rob Borbidge.

Borbidge was appointed to the ministry when Joh Bjelke-Petersen was replaced as Premier by Mike Ahern. Borbidge served as a minister until the National Party lost in 1989.

Borbidge was elected as National Party leader in 1991, leading the party to the 1992 and 1995 elections. In 1996, a by-election result saw the Labor Party lose its majority, and Borbidge formed a minority government in coalition with the Liberal Party and with the support of an independent MP.

Borbidge lost power at the 1998 election. He served as Opposition Leader in the first term of the Beattie government. After the Nationals and Liberals suffered a massive defeat in 2001, Borbidge resigned as Nationals leader and as Member for Surfers Paradise.

At the 2001 by-election, both the Liberals and Nationals contested the seat. Borbidge had polled 49.8% at the general election, but the new National Party candidate barely managed 8%.

Liberal candidate John-Paul Langbroek polled 21%, but lost to independent councillor Lex Bell, who polled almost 36%.

In 2004, Bell lost to Langbroek, who ran without National Party competition.

Langbroek, along with all other Liberal MPs, joined the newly formed Liberal National Party in 2008. When the LNP lost the 2009 election, leader Lawrence Springborg stepped down and Langbroek was elected as LNP leader.

Langbroek led the party until March 2011, when he was replaced as party leader by Lord Mayor of Brisbane Campbell Newman, elected as party leader from outside Parliament.

Langbroek has now won Surfers Paradise at six consecutive elections.

Candidates

  • Leeanne Schultz (One Nation)
  • Roger McKay (United Australia)
  • Brianna Bailey (Labor)
  • John-Paul Langbroek (Liberal National)
  • Nelson Quinn (Greens)
  • Assessment
    Surfers Paradise is a very safe LNP seat.

    2017 result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing
    John-Paul Langbroek Liberal National 16,127 63.2 +1.2
    Tony Walker Labor 5,715 22.4 +1.3
    Scott Turner Greens 2,323 9.1 +1.5
    Chris Manley Independent 785 3.1 +3.1
    Tylere Baker-Pearce Independent 556 2.2 +2.2
    Informal 1,497 5.5

    2017 two-party-preferred result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing
    John-Paul Langbroek Liberal National 17,799 69.8 -0.6
    Tony Walker Labor 7,707 30.2 +0.6

    Booth breakdown

    Booths in Surfers Paradise have been divided into four areas: central, north and south.

    The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 65% in the south to 69% in the centre.

    Voter group LNP 2PP Total votes % of votes
    Central 69.1 5,728 22.5
    South 65.1 4,249 16.7
    North 67.1 3,418 13.4
    Pre-poll 74.4 7,095 27.8
    Other votes 69.9 5,016 19.7

    Two-party-preferred votes in Surfers Paradise at the 2017 QLD state election


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    4 COMMENTS

    1. Surprised JPL hasn’t been rolled as a has-been leader and replaced with some new blood in this safe LNP electorate. Then again, it really is his to hold as long as he wants, being of the few MPs to have served so long (Fiona Simpson the only one currently consecutively serving longer)… such is the volatile nature of QLD Politicians that we sometimes forget. I don’t see RESET getting much traction despite Arjay having a court battle going on against the government at the moment (about… borders ofc). RESET I consider independent as I can’t seem to find that their party has been successful in lodging with ECQ.

      Prediction (August 2020): LNP Retain

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