Noosa – QLD 2020

IND 11.5% vs LNP

Incumbent MP
Sandy Bolton, since 2017

Geography
Sunshine Coast. Noosa covers the northern Sunshinse Coast suburbs of Tewantin, Noosaville, Noosa Heads, Sunshine Beach, Castaways Beach, Marcus Beach and Peregian Beach, as well as Eumundi.

History

The seat of Noosa has existed since 1992. The seat was won by the Liberal Party from 1992 to 2001 and since 2006.

Bruce Davidson won the seat for the Liberal Party in 1992. Davidson served as a minister in the Borbidge government from 1996 to 1998.

In 2001, Davidson was defeated by ALP candidate Cate Molloy. Molloy was re-elected in 2004.

In 2006, Molloy came into conflict with her party when she came out against the government’s plans for a dam on the Mary River. She was disendorsed as the Labor candidate for Noosa, and resigned from the ALP to sit as an independent.

At the 2006 election, Molloy lost to the Liberal Party’s Glen Elmes. Elmes was re-elected as the LNP candidate in 2009, 2012 and 2015.

Elmes lost his seat in 2017 to independent candidate Sandy Bolton.

Candidates

Assessment
Bolton won comfortably in 2017, but there would be a wide range of possible outcomes here. First-term independent MPs often strengthen their hold on their seat, but that doesn’t always happen.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Sandy BoltonIndependent9,47931.4+31.4
Glen Elmes Liberal National 8,89229.4-16.5
Mark Denham Labor 3,86912.8-8.5
Eve WhitesideOne Nation3,55111.8+11.8
Phillip Jenkins Greens 3,49211.6-10.2
Aaron WhiteIndependent6102.0+2.0
Robin BristowIndependent3011.0+1.0
Informal1,1713.7

2017 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Sandy BoltonIndependent18,57861.5+61.5
Glen Elmes Liberal National 11,61638.5-18.1

Booth breakdown

Booths in Noosa have been divided into four areas: central, east, north and west.

Independent candidate Sandy Bolton polled over 60% of the two-candidate-preferred vote in every area, ranging from 61.1% in the centre to 74.7% in the north.

Labor came third, just ahead of One Nation and the Greens.

Voter groupALP primIND 2CPTotal votes% of votes
East13.962.55,89919.5
Central11.061.12,7359.1
West15.270.12,6128.7
North16.274.77642.5
Pre-poll11.460.412,79442.4
Other votes14.357.55,39017.9

Election results in Noosa at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (independent vs LNP) and primary votes for Labor, One Nation and the Greens.

6 COMMENTS

  1. Seems to me the mps from one kap and individuals will be reelected…. For the lnp to govern they may well need them all….unstable govt

  2. @Mick Quinlivan

    Yes MP Sandy Bolton is based in traditionally conservative seat. I have heard on the grapevine though that she is more likely to form a minority government with Labor then the LNP. I don’t know much about the local issues but I presume she is favorite.

    I’m not sure why she won in 2017. It may have been urban voters who were not happy of the idea of the LNP potentially forming a minority government with One Nation. But they couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Labor, because of the council amalgamations during the Beattie years.

    It was also suggested in the Courier Mail that the previous LNP member Glen Elmes may have out stayed his welcome. And for the LNP it was time for renewal.

  3. I would’ve thought the independent would hold this as long as she wants – but I see here the One Nation vote and I think why would they run then & now, so *rhetorical* where will that vote go?

    The new LNP candidate is of quality & I like that he is young.

    I will be surprised but pleased if Noosa changes hands.

  4. @Political_Nightwatchman interesting insight there. That would make Maroochydore interesting as Fiona Simpson is the only member of parliament left from the 90s.

    I admit Noosa was a little surprising but almost expected in it’s result. In regards to Sandy Bolton, I see her retaining this with no issues at all. If you look at the history of neighbouring electorates (Maryborough & Nicklin), these two seats had long serving independents in recent times, so it’s not unheard of for conservative types to vote for the indy. Coming off 30% first prefs last time is a good start and should attract prefs from GRN/ALP and then going on to beat LNP. If more candidates run here, I might change my assessment but for now…

    Prediction (August 2020): IND Retain

  5. I would be surprised if the LNP can win here. The ALP will send preferences to Bolton, meaning they will need nearly 50% of the primary vote to win.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here