Warrego – QLD 2017

LNP 14.5%

Incumbent MP
Ann Leahy, since 2015.

Geography
South-Western Queensland. The seat covers the south-western corner of Queensland, bordering New South Wales and South Australia. Warrego covers Balonne, Bulloo, Murweh, Paroo, Roma and Quilpie council areas and parts of the Western Downs council area. The seat’s major centres include St George, Cunnamulla, Thargomindah, Miles, Roma, Quilpie, Dalby and Charleville.

Redistribution
Warrego gained Quilpie council area from Gregory, lost Chinchilla and Jandowae to Callide and gained Dalby from Condamine. These changes slightly cut the LNP margin from 15.4% to 14.5%.


History
The seat of Warrego has existed continuously since 1865. The seat was held by the ALP continuously from 1908 to 1974. The seat has been held by Country/National/Liberal National MPs since 1974.

Neil Turner won Warrego for the Country Party in 1974. He held the seat until 1986. He later returned to Parliament as Member for Nicklin from 1990 to 1998, when he lost to independent candidate Peter Wellington. He served as Speaker of the Legislative Assembly from 1996 to 1998.

Howard Hobbs won Warrego for the National Party in 1986. He was re-elected for a further nine terms, and retired in 2015.

LNP candidate Ann Leahy won the seat in 2015.

Candidates

Assessment
Warrego is a safe LNP seat on paper, although it’s worth noting that One Nation has polled highly in this area in the past, and if they do well they could threaten the sitting member’s hold on the seat.

2015 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Ann Leahy Liberal National 13,285 55.0 -3.2 52.9
Mark O’Brien Labor 6,398 26.5 +13.8 25.9
Guy Sara Palmer United Party 2,179 9.0 +9.0 6.2
Ruth Golden Independent 1,663 6.9 -6.3 4.6
Sandra Bayley Greens 649 2.7 +0.7 2.9
Katter’s Australian Party 4.6
Others 1.6
Family First 1.3
Informal 510 2.1

2015 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Ann Leahy Liberal National 14,255 65.4 -9.6 64.5
Mark O’Brien Labor 7,531 34.6 +9.6 35.5
Exhausted 2,388 9.9

Booth breakdown

Booths in Warrego have been divided into four areas: Dalby, Roma, Balonne and the west.

The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three out of four areas, ranging from 62% in Balonne to 67% in Dalby. Labor polled 54% in the west.

Voter group LNP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Dalby 67.1 6,763 27.4
Roma 64.0 4,226 17.1
West 45.9 2,107 8.5
Balonne 61.9 1,505 6.1
Other votes 68.7 10,061 40.8

Two-candidate-preferred votes in Warrego at the 2015 QLD state election

About the Author

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room. If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.