Toowoomba South – QLD 2017

LNP 8.4%

Incumbent MP
David Janetzki, since 2016.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Southern parts of the Toowoomba urban area, specifically covering the suburbs of Glenvale, Harristown, South Toowoomba, Rangeville, Centenary Heights, Kearneys Spring, Middle Ridge and parts of Darling Heights.

Redistribution
Toowoomba South expanded slightly to the south-west, taking in a small area from Condamine. This change increased the LNP margin from 8.9% to 9.1%.

History

The seat of Toowoomba South has existed since the 1972 election. It was won by the ALP at the first election but has been held by the National Party (now the LNP) ever since.

Peter Wood won Toowoomba South in 1972. He had held Toowoomba East since 1966, but moved seats when his old seat was abolished. He was defeated in 1974 by the Country Party’s John Warner.

Warner held the seat for the National Party until 1986, when he was succeeded by Clive Berghofer, also by the National Party.

Berghofer had served as Mayor of Toowoomba since 1982, and continued to serve as Mayor while sitting in Parliament. In 1991, changes in legislation banned the practice of councillors sitting in Parliament, and Berghofer resigned from Toowoomba South in order to retain his mayoralty. His term as mayor ended in 1992.

The 1991 Toowoomba South by-election was won by the National Party’s Mike Horan. Horan held Toowoomba South until 2012, and served as Leader of the Opposition from 2001 to 2003.

In 2012, Horan was succeeded by the LNP’s John McVeigh.

McVeigh was re-elected in 2015. He resigned in 2016 to successfully contest the federal seat of Groom at the 2016 federal election.

LNP candidate David Janetzki won the subsequent by-election.

Candidates

Assessment
Toowoomba South is a safe LNP seat.

2015 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
John McVeigh Liberal National 16,851 55.3 -3.2 54.7
Graham Storey Labor 10,601 34.8 +13.8 33.9
Anne Waters Greens 3,003 9.9 +4.4 9.3
Katter’s Australian Party 1.4
Family First 0.4
Others 0.3
Informal 767 2.5

2015 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
John McVeigh Liberal National 17,216 58.9 -12.7 58.4
Graham Storey Labor 12,018 41.1 +12.7 41.6
Exhausted 1,221 4.0

2016 by-election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
David Janetzki Liberal National 13,005 46.4 -9.0
Di Thorley Independent 9,827 35.0 +35.0
Alexandra Todd Family First 2,019 7.2 +7.2
Ken Gover Greens 1,519 5.4 -4.4
Ken Elliott Katter’s Australian Party 1,188 4.2 +4.2
Rob Berry Independent 486 1.7 +1.7
Informal 940 3.2

2016 by-election two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes %
David Janetzki Liberal National 15,591 55.6
Di Thorley Independent 12,453 44.4

Booth breakdown

Booths in Toowoomba South have been divided into three areas: north-east, north-west and south.

 

The LNP comfortably won all three areas at the 2015 state election, with a two-party-preferred vote ranging from 53% in the north-west to 61% in the south.

The Greens came third, polling just over 10% in the north-east and north-west, and 8.4% in the south.

At the 2016 by-election, David Janetzki topped the primary vote in all three areas, winning most decisively in the south, and only outpolling independent candidate Di Thorley by 1.2% in the north-west.

2015 election breakdown

Voter group GRN prim % LNP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
South 8.4 60.7 9,447 27.7
North-West 10.1 52.8 7,371 21.6
North-East 10.2 56.7 6,932 20.3
Other votes 9.1 63.8 10,318 30.3

2016 by-election breakdown

Voter group Janetzki prim % Thorley prim % Total votes % of votes
South 46.6 34.7 5,634 20.1
North-East 40.4 38.5 5,097 18.2
North-West 38.8 37.6 4,951 17.7
Other votes 51.8 32.7 12,362 44.1

Election results in Toowoomba South at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

Election results at the 2016 Toowoomba South by-election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between primary votes for LNP candidate David Janetzki and independent candidate Di Thorley.

About the Author

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room. If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.