Toowoomba North – QLD 2017

LNP 1.6%

Incumbent MP
Trevor Watts, since 2012.

Geography
Northern parts of Toowoomba, including central Toowoomba as well as Wilsonton, Rockville, Mount Lofty, North Toowoomba, East Toowoomba, Harlaxton and parts of Newtown.

Redistribution
No change.

History
The seat of Toowoomba North was first contested at the 1972 election. While the seat has been held by conservative parties for a majority of its existence, it has often been won by the ALP.

The seat was first won in 1972 by the ALP’s Ray Bousen, but he lost in a landslide victory for the Bjelke-Petersen government in 1974. John Lockwood of the Liberal Party won the seat in 1974.

Lockwood held the seat until the 1983 election, when he was defeated by Sandy McPhie of the National Party. At the 1983 election, the coalition between the National Party and the Liberal Party was dissolved, and a majority of Liberal MPs were defeated for re-election, including Lockwood.

McPhie held the seat until 1989, when he was defeated by the ALP’s John Flynn as part of the ALP’s return to power under Wayne Goss. Flynn lost in 1992 to the National Party’s Graham Healy.

Healy was re-elected in 1995 and served as a parliamentary secretary in the Borbidge government in 1998. He then served as a shadow minister after the ALP won the 1998 election.

In 2001, Peter Beattie’s ALP won a second term in a landslide, and the ALP’s Kerry Shine defeated Healy in Toowoomba North. Shine served as Attorney-General in the Beattie and Bligh governments from 2006 to 2009, and held the seat until 2012.

In 2012, Shine was defeated by LNP candidate Trevor Watts. Watts was re-elected in 2015.

Candidates

Assessment
Toowoomba North is a marginal LNP seat, and could fall to Labor if the government does well.

2015 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Trevor Watts Liberal National 13,932 44.4 -5.4
Kerry Shine Labor 12,166 38.8 +6.5
Mandeep Sandhu Palmer United Party 1,578 5.0 +5.0
Ken Gover Greens 1,430 4.6 -0.3
Ken Elliott Katter’s Australian Party 1,050 3.3 -8.3
John Sands Family First 871 2.8 +2.8
Greg Keane Independent 347 1.1 -0.3
Informal 606 1.9

2015 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Trevor Watts Liberal National 14,999 51.6 -8.0
Kerry Shine Labor 14,064 48.4 +8.0
Exhausted 2,311 7.4

Booth breakdown

Booths in Toowoomba North have been divided into three areas: east, north and south.

The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of three areas, polling 52.2% in the north and 52.8% in the east. Labor won 57.7% in the south.

Voter group LNP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
North 52.2 9,900 31.6
East 52.8 6,535 20.8
South 42.3 5,115 16.3
Other votes 55.1 9,824 31.3

Two-party-preferred in Toowoomba North at the 2015 QLD state election

About the Author

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room. If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.