Theodore – QLD 2017

LNP 5.3%

Incumbent MP
Mark Boothman, member for Albert since 2012.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Theodore covers western parts of Gold Coast City, including the suburbs of Oxenford, Upper Coomera, Guanaba, Maudsland, Clagiraba and parts of Helensvale and Mount Nathan.

Redistribution
Theodore is a new name for the seat of Albert. Approximately half of the seat’s population was previously part of Albert, including Oxenford. Theodore also covers what was previously the south-western corner of Coomera, and north-western parts of Gaven, including Guanaba, Clagiraba and Maudsland. Albert was won in 2015 by the LNP by a 1.7% margin: the new seat has a 5.3% margin.


History
The seat of Albert was first created in 1888, and has existed for all but ten years since then. The seat was abolished in 1950 and restored in 1960. The seat has been a marginal seat regularly changing hands since the 1970s.

In its early years, the seat was dominated by various conservative MPs, with the ALP never winning the seat prior to its abolition in 1950.

In 1960 it was won by the Country Party’s Cec Carey. He held the seat until his death in 1969.

The 1970 by-election was won by Liberal candidate Bill Heatley. Heatley had previously filled a vacancy in the Senate and served as a Senator from 1966 to 1968. He died in late 1971.

At the 1972 election, Albert was won by Labor candidate Bill D’Arcy. He held the seat for one term, losing in 1974. He later won the seat of Woodridge in 1977 and held it until 2000.

Albert was won in 1974 by National Country Party candidate Ivan Gibbs. He served as a minister in the conservative government from 1979 to 1989.

The ALP’s John Szczerbanik won Albert in 1989. He was re-elected in 1992 but lost the seat in 1995 to the National Party’s Bill Baumann. Baumann was defeated in 2001 by the ALP’s Margaret Keech.

Margaret Keech held Albert for four terms from 2001 to 2012. In 2012, Keech lost to LNP candidate Mark Boothman. Boothman was re-elected in 2015.

Candidates

Assessment
Theodore is a marginal LNP seat.

2015 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Mark Boothman Liberal National 13,597 43.1 -6.5 45.4
Melissa Mcmahon Labor 11,145 35.4 +7.0 31.5
Blair Brewster Palmer United Party 3,428 10.9 +10.9 11.4
Jane Cajdler Greens 1,923 6.1 +0.7 6.0
Amanda Best Family First 1,434 4.5 -1.2 4.2
Others 1.6
Informal 906 2.8

2015 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Mark Boothman Liberal National 14,872 51.7 -10.2 55.3
Melissa Mcmahon Labor 13,911 48.3 +10.2 44.7
Exhausted 2,744 8.7

Booth breakdown

Booths in Theodore have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.

The LNP won over 50% of the two-party-preferred vote in two areas, polling 53% in the north and 59% in the centre. Labor won just over 50% in the south.

The Palmer United Party came third, with a vote ranging from 11.1% in the south to 13.9% in the north.

Voter group PUP prim % LNP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Central 11.8 59.3 9,114 33.3
South 11.1 49.9 5,164 18.9
North 13.9 52.7 4,947 18.1
Other votes 9.6 55.5 8,119 29.7

Election results in Theodore at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Palmer United Party primary votes.

About the Author

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room. If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.