Southern Downs – QLD 2017

LNP 19.2%

Incumbent MP
Lawrence Springborg, since 2001. Previously Member for Carnarvon 1989-1992, Member for Warwick 1992-2001.

Geography
Southern Queensland. Southern Downs cover rural areas stretching along the Queensland-NSW border. Major centres include Warwick, Stanthorpe, Millmerran, Texas, Inglewood and Goondiwindi. Southern Downs covers Goondiwindi and Southern Downs LGAs and parts of Toowoomba local government area.

Redistribution
Southern Downs mostly maintained its existing boundaries, with a small area north of Leyburn being moved to Condamine.


History
The seat of Southern Downs was created at the 2001 election.

Southern Downs in 2001 was won by Lawrence Springborg, who had been a National Party MP since 1989, first for Carnarvon and then for Warwick.

Springborg had previously served briefly as a minister in the final months of the Borbidge government in 1998.

Springborg became leader of the National Party in 2003, and led the party to the 2004 and 2006 elections.

He stepped down as leader in 2006, but returned to the party’s leadership in 2008.

Later in 2008 he led the Nationals into a merger with the Liberal Party, forming the Liberal National Party. He led the LNP into the 2009 state election. He served as deputy leader of the LNP from 2009 to 2011, and served as Minister for Health in the Newman government from 2012 to 2015. Springborg again served as LNP leader from 2015 to 2016.

Candidates

Assessment
Southern Downs is a safe LNP seat on paper, although it’s worth noting that One Nation has polled highly in this area in the past, and if they do well they could threaten the sitting member’s hold on the seat.

2015 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Lawrence Springborg Liberal National 19,275 62.8 -3.8
Louise Ryan Labor 7,201 23.5 +10.1
Elizabeth Ure Greens 2,200 7.2 +3.3
John Spellman Family First 2,022 6.6 +4.4
Informal 623 2.0

2015 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Lawrence Springborg Liberal National 20,008 69.2 -10.6
Louise Ryan Labor 8,906 30.8 +10.6
Exhausted 1,784 5.8

Booth breakdown

Booths in Southern Downs have been divided into four areas: Warwick, north, south and west.

The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, polling around 64% in Warwick and the South and 73-74% in the north and west.

Voter group LNP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Warwick 64.1 5,673 18.5
South 64.3 5,543 18.1
North 73.6 4,725 15.4
West 73.4 4,460 14.5
Other votes 70.7 10,297 33.5

Two-candidate-preferred votes in Southern Downs at the 2015 QLD state election

About the Author

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room. If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.