LNP 1.2%
Incumbent MP
Matt McEachan, since 2015.
Geography
Redlands is contained fully in the Redland council area. The seat covers Sheldon, Victoria Point and Redland Bay, as well as a number of Moreton Bay Islands and part of Thornlands.
Redistribution
Redlands previously stretched further inland, covering areas as far as Cornubia, and including Mount Cotton and Carbrook. These areas have been transferred to MacAlister and Springwood. Redlands gained part of Thornlands on its northern border from Cleveland. These changes reduced the LNP margin from 1.8% to 1.2%.
History
Redlands has existed since the 1972 election. The seat has alternated between the ALP and the National Party, and is now held by the Liberal National Party.
The seat was won in 1972 by the ALP’s Edgar Baldwin. He lost in 1974 to the Country Party’s John Goleby. He held the seat until 1985, when he was succeeded by the National Party’s Paul Clauson.
Clauson lost in 1989 to the ALP’s Darryl Briskey. Briskey moved to the seat of Cleveland in 1992, holding it until his retirement in 2006.
Briskey was succeeded by Labor candidate John Budd. He held the seat for one term, losing in 1995 to National candidate John Hegarty.
Hegarty held the seat for two terms, and in the 2001 landslide election lost to the ALP’s John English.
English held the seat until 2009, when he lost to Liberal National candidate Peter Dowling. Dowling was re-elected in 2012.
Dowling retired in 2015, and was succeeded by LNP candidate Matt McEachan.
Candidates
- David Keogh (Greens)
- Peter Dowling (Independent)
- Kim Richards (Labor)
- Jason Quick (One Nation)
- Matt McEachan (Liberal National)
Assessment
Redlands is a marginal LNP seat.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Matt McEachan | Liberal National | 13,340 | 43.9 | -21.9 | 44.3 |
| Deb Kellie | Labor | 10,442 | 34.3 | +10.3 | 35.3 |
| David Keogh | Greens | 2,261 | 7.4 | -2.7 | 8.2 |
| Sheena Hewlett | Independent | 1,939 | 6.4 | +6.4 | 5.6 |
| Susan Bylett | Palmer United Party | 1,809 | 5.9 | +6.0 | 4.9 |
| Carolyn Ferrando | Family First | 625 | 2.1 | +2.1 | 1.7 |
| Informal | 726 | 2.3 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Matt McEachan | Liberal National | 14,399 | 52.2 | -18.9 | 51.2 |
| Deb Kellie | Labor | 13,167 | 47.8 | +18.9 | 48.8 |
| Exhausted | 2,850 | 9.4 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Redlands have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote across the seat, but only managed a majority in one out of three areas, with 54.3% in the west. Labor polled 50.9% in the centre and 59.4% in the east.
| Voter group | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 49.1 | 8,780 | 29.8 |
| West | 54.3 | 5,832 | 19.8 |
| East | 40.6 | 2,644 | 9.0 |
| Other votes | 55.0 | 12,170 | 41.4 |
Two-party-preferred in Redlands at the 2015 QLD state election
Former LNP Member, now Independent, Peter Dowling is running for Redlands.
Single digits is what he can expect after his plonking incident…
Will he get enough votes for preferences to leak to Labor?
Doubtful
On further reflection, this is another seat Labor could come close to winning, or even win thanks to a strong flow of preferences from both PHON and Peter Dowling.
McEachan will need a primary vote of at least 44% to be within a chance here.
As per the previous PRP comment the Dowling and One Nation preferences as well as the Greens will decide this. I think Labor will win this one.
Labor gain