Pumicestone – QLD 2017

LNP 0.1%

Incumbent MP
Rick Williams, since 2015.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Pumicestone covers parts of Moreton Bay LGA stretching from Bribie Island to Moodlu.

Redistribution
Pumicestone gained the remainder of Bribie Island from Caloundra, lost Caboolture to Morayfield and gained a small area to the north of Caboolture from Glass House. The best estimate suggests that the seat has flipped from a Labor margin of 2.1% to an LNP margin of 0.1%, although other models suggest the seat is still notional Labor.

History
The seat of Pumicestone has existed since 2001. The seat was won in 2001 by Carryn Sullivan, who was re-elected in 2004, 2006 and 2009.

In 2012, Sullivan was defeated by LNP candidate Lisa France. France lost to Labor’s Rick Williams in 2015.

Candidates

Assessment
Pumicestone is the most marginal seat in the state, and will be a vital seat in terms of building a majority.

2015 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Lisa France Liberal National 13,975 42.1 -11.0 45.1
Rick Williams Labor 13,589 41.0 +10.5 38.5
Blair Verrier Palmer United Party 2,451 7.4 +7.4 7.1
Daniel O’Connell Greens 1,824 5.5 -0.6 5.6
Bevan Collingwood Independent 901 2.7 +2.7 2.5
Denis Johnson Independent 431 1.3 +1.3 1.2
Informal 749 2.2

2015 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Rick Williams Labor 16,166 52.1 +14.2 49.9
Lisa France Liberal National 14,874 47.9 -14.2 50.1
Exhausted 2,131 6.4

Booth breakdown

Booths in Pumicestone have been divided into three areas: central, west and Bribie Island.

The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of three areas, polling 50.8% in the centre and 55.3% in the west. The LNP won 52.5% on Bribie Island.

Voter group ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Bribie Island 47.5 9,195 33.5
Central 50.8 4,835 17.6
West 55.3 4,226 15.4
Other votes 50.1 9,170 33.4

Two-party-preferred in Pumicestone at the 2015 QLD state election

About the Author

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room. If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.