Mundingburra – QLD 2017

ALP 1.8%

Incumbent MP
Coralee O’Rourke, since 2015.

Geography
North Queensland. Mundingburra covers southern parts of Townsville, covering the suburbs of Heatley, Cranbrook, Aitkenvale, Mundingburra, Gulliver, Douglas, Annandale, Stuart, Roseneath, Wulguru, Idalia and parts of Vincent.

Redistribution
Mundingburra expanded to the east, taking in the south-eastern fringe of the Townsville area from Burdekin. These areas include Stuart, Roseneath, Wulguru and Idalia. At the western edge, Mundingburra lost the remainder of Kirwan and part of Vincent to Thuringowa. These changes cut the Labor margin from 2.8% to 1.8%.

History
The seat of Mundingburra has existed since 1992, and has been won by the ALP at every general election. The ALP’s hold on the seat was broken at the 1996 by-election, when it was won by the Liberal Party.

The seat was first won in 1992 by Ken Davies, who had previously won the seat of Townsville in 1989 before moving to the new seat of Mundingburra. He won re-election in 1995 by only 16 votes.

The result in Mundingburra ended up in court, and a by-election was called in 1996. The by-election was won by Liberal candidate Frank Tanti. This resulted in the ALP government losing its majority and the National-Liberal coalition forming a minority government.

At the 1998 election, Tanti lost the seat to the ALP’s Lindy Nelson-Carr. Nelson-Carr was re-elected in 2001, 2004, 2006 and 2009. She was appointed to the ministry in 2007.

Nelson-Carr retired in 2012, and the LNP’s David Crisafulli won the seat with a 16.8% swing. Crisafulli only lasted for one term, losing in 2015 to Labor’s Coralee O’Rourke with a 13% swing.

Candidates

Assessment
Mundingburra is very marginal, and Labor will need to perform well to retain the seat. O’Rourke should benefit from a personal vote which could help her hold on.

2015 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
David Crisafulli Liberal National 10,921 41.3 -2.0 40.6
Coralee O’Rourke Labor 10,596 40.1 +14.4 37.0
Clive Mensink Palmer United Party 2,874 10.9 +10.9 10.0
Jenny Brown Greens 2,040 7.7 +2.7 6.7
Katter’s Australian Party 3.2
Others 1.3
One Nation 1.2
Informal 606 2.2

2015 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Coralee O’Rourke Labor 13,104 52.8 +13.0 51.8
David Crisafulli Liberal National 11,733 47.2 -13.0 48.2
Exhausted 1,594 6.0

Booth breakdown

Booths in Mundingburra have been divided into three areas: east, north and west.

The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of the three areas, ranging from 50.4% in the east to 57.2% in the north. The LNP won 51% in the west.

The Palmer United Party vote ranged from 8.5% in the west to 11.7% in the north.

Voter group PUP prim % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
East 8.9 50.4 7,270 24.8
North 11.7 57.2 7,101 24.2
West 8.5 48.8 6,129 20.9
Other votes 10.4 49.8 8,800 30.0

Election results in Mundingburra at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Palmer United Party primary votes.

About the Author

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room. If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.