Mirani – QLD 2017

ALP 3.8%

Incumbent MP
Jim Pearce, since 2015.

Geography
North Queensland. Mirani covers regional parts of Queensland from the southern edge of Mackay to the outskirts of Rockhampton. The seat covers parts of Isaac, Mackay and Rockhampton local government areas, and the towns of Mount Morgan, Dysart and Middlemount.

Redistribution
Mirani underwent small changes, losing a small area near Mackay and gaining an area north of Rockhampton from Keppel. These changes cut the ALP margin from 4.8% to 3.8%.

History
The seat of Mirani has existed since 1912. Apart from the period 1935-1947, the seat was held by MPs who belonged to the Country Party, National Party and Liberal National Party until 2015, when Labor won the seat.

Jim Randell held the seat for the National Party from 1980 until 1994. His resignation triggered the 1994 Mirani by-election.

Ted Malone won the 1994 by-election for the National Party. He joined the merged Liberal National Party in 2008. Malone was elected to his first full term in 1995 by a solid 59% margin, before dropping to a slim 53-54% in 1998 and 2001.

Malone increased his margin to 60.6% in 2004, but lost support in 2006.

The most recent redistribution in 2009 favoured Labor, and Mirani became a notional Labor seat. Malone held on by a slim margin of 50.6% in 2009, and then gained a swing of over 10% in 2012. While Malone had served as a shadow minister before the 2012 election, he moved to the backbench when the LNP won power in 2012, before becoming an Assistant Minister in late 2012.

Malone retired at the 2015 election, and Labor’s Jim Pearce won the seat with a 16% swing.

Candidates

Assessment
Mirani is a very marginal Labor seat. Pearce should benefit from a personal vote not previously available to Labor, but Mirani has a long history of being held by the LNP and they are likely to be competitive. There’s also potential for One Nation here.

2015 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Jim Pearce Labor 12,919 41.9 +13.2 41.2
John Kerslake Liberal National 11,505 37.3 -9.3 38.0
Michael Hall Palmer United Party 5,146 16.7 +16.7 16.5
Trisha Brindley Greens 1,268 4.1 +0.8 4.1
Others 0.1
Informal 633 2.0

2015 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Jim Pearce Labor 15,206 54.8 +16.0 53.8
John Kerslake Liberal National 12,534 45.2 -16.0 46.2
Exhausted 3,098 10.0

Booth breakdown

Booths in Mirani have been divided into three areas. Polling places on the outskirts of the Mackay area have been grouped, and the remainder were split into north and south.

The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 52.4% in Mackay to 59% in the south.

The Palmer United Party vote ranged from 15.1% in the south to 18.5% in the north.

Voter group PUP prim % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
North 18.5 55.2 9,100 33.4
Mackay 15.3 52.4 4,123 15.1
South 15.1 59.1 3,670 13.5
Other votes 15.8 51.9 10,345 38.0

Election results in Mirani at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Palmer United Party primary votes.

About the Author

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room. If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.