Maiwar – QLD 2017

LNP 3.0%

Incumbent MP

  • Scott Emerson (LNP), member for Indooroopilly since 2009.
  • Steven Miles (ALP), member for Mount Coot-tha since 2012.

Geography
Inner west of Brisbane. Maiwar covers suburbs on the north side of the Brisbane river ot the south-west of the Brisbane city centre, including Indooroopilly, St Lucia, Toowong and Auchenflower.

Redistribution
Maiwar is an amalgamation of the electorates of Indooroopilly and Mount Coot-tha. Approximately 55% of the seat’s population comes from Indooroopilly, with the remainder previously contained in Mount Coot-tha.

The seat of Indooroopilly previously crossed the Brisbane River – those areas on the north side of the river were all moved into Maiwar, including the suburbs of Indooroopilly and St Lucia.

The southern half of Mount Coot-tha was moved into Maiwar, including the suburbs of Auchenflower and Toowong.

Indooroopilly was won in 2012 by the LNP by a 6.7% margin, while Mount Coot-tha was won by a Labor margin of 2.6%. The new seat has a notional margin of 3.0% for the LNP.


History – Indooroopilly
The seat of Indooroopilly has existed since 1992. The seat was held by the Liberal Party from 1992 to 2001, then by the ALP from 2001 to 2008. In 2008 the sitting member joined the Greens, and in 2009 he lost to the LNP, who retained the seat in 2012 and 2015.

The seat was first won in 1992 by former Liberal leader Denver Beanland. He had held the seat of Toowong since 1986, and had been leader of the Liberal Party until 1991.

Beanland served as Attorney-General from 1996 to 1998, and lost his seat in 2001.

Ronan Lee won Indooroopilly for the ALP in 2001. He was re-elected in 2004 and 2006, and was appointed as a Parliamentary Secretary after the 2006 election.

In 2008, Lee resigned from the ALP and joined the Greens. He contested Indooroopilly for the Greens in 2009. The seat was the best result for the Greens in the state, but Lee’s vote was much lower than he had won in past elections as the Labor candidate. Lee narrowly missed out on coming in the top two, and the seat was won by the LNP’s Scott Emerson.

Scott Emerson was re-elected in 2012 and 2015.

History – Mount Coot-tha
Mount Coot-tha existed from 1950 until this election. The seat was continuously held by the Liberal Party from 1950 to 1989, and was then held by Labor from 1989 until 2012. The seat changed hands at both of the last two elections.

Kenneth Morris won Mount Coot-tha for the Liberal Party in 1950. He had held the seat of Enoggera since 1944, before moving to the new seat. He was elected as Liberal Party leader in 1954. He served as Deputy Premier from 1957 to 1962. In 1963 he resigned from Mount Coot-tha and won a special election to the Senate. He served as a Senator until his retirement in 1967.

Mount Coot-tha was won in 1963 by Bill Lickiss, also of the Liberal Party. He held the seat until 1986, when he moved to the new safe Liberal seat of Moggill. He held Moggill for one term before retiring in 1989.

Lyle Schuntner was elected as Liberal MP for Mount Coot-tha in 1986, but lost his seat in 1989 to Labor candidate Wendy Edmond.

Edmond went on to retain the seat relatively comfortably. The seat became a primary target for the Queensland Greens, with Drew Hutton polling strongly at the 1995 election. Edmond became a minister in the Beattie government in 1998, and retired in 2004.

In 2004 the Greens mounted another high-profile challenge in the seat, running former journalist Andrew Carroll, but the seat was won by Labor candidate Andrew Fraser.

Fraser joined the ministry in the Beattie government in 2006. When Anna Bligh became Premier in 2007, she appointed Fraser as Treasurer. He also became Deputy Premier in September 2011.

In 2012, Fraser lost his seat to LNP candidate Saxon Rice. Rice lost in 2015 to Labor candidate Steven Miles.

Candidates
Labor member for Mount Coot-tha, Steven Miles, will be running for the seat of Murrumba.

Assessment
Maiwar is a marginal LNP seat. A swing of less than 3% from the LNP to Labor would see Labor win the seat. It’s also worth noting that Maiwar is one of the strongest Greens seats in the state – the Greens have previously targetted both of the predecessor electorates. It is entirely possible that the Greens could overtake Labor, and challenge the LNP for their hold on the seat, particularly with the incumbent Labor MP declining to contest the seat.

There are effectively two different contests: Labor and Greens will be competing to come second on the primary vote, and the winner of this contest will hope for a strong preference flow to challenge the sitting Liberal National MP.

This is a seat where the strength of preference flows may well determine the result. The voting system in Queensland has changed to compulsory preferential voting since the last election: this will likely lead to stronger flows between Labor and the Greens, and could be enough to change the seat’s result if it is close.

2015 election result – Indooroopilly

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Scott Emerson Liberal National 13,502 51.0 -9.9 47.6
Chris Horacek Labor 7,260 27.4 +8.7 29.3
Jake Schoermer Greens 4,933 18.6 +0.1 20.4
Anita Diamond Independent 490 1.9 +1.9 1.1
Paul Swan Independent 165 0.6 +0.6 0.4
Ben Freney Independent 134 0.5 +0.5 0.3
Others 1.0
Informal 364 1.4

2015 two-party-preferred result – Indooroopilly

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Scott Emerson Liberal National 14,111 56.7 -12.8 53.0
Chris Horacek Labor 10,763 43.3 +12.8 47.0
Exhausted 1,610 6.1

2015 election result – Mount Coot-tha

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Saxon Rice Liberal National 11,814 43.0 -4.8
Steven Miles Labor 8,966 32.6 +4.0
Omar Ameer Greens 6,095 22.2 +1.5
Charles Mcalister Independent 611 2.2 +2.2
Informal 349 1.3

2015 two-party-preferred result – Mount Coot-tha

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Steven Miles Labor 13,920 52.6 +8.0
Saxon Rice Liberal National 12,550 47.4 -8.0
Exhausted 1,016 3.7

Booth breakdown

Booths in Maiwar have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.

The LNP topped the primary vote in all three areas, ranging from 45% in the centre to 52% in the south.

The Labor primary vote ranged from 26% in the south to 33% in the north. The Greens vote ranged from 19% in the south to 22% in the centre.

Each of the three main parties had their highest vote in a different area: the LNP in the south, the Greens in the centre, and Labor in the north.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % GRN prim % Total votes % of votes
Central 45.1 29.8 22.3 8,019 26.4
South 52.0 25.9 19.0 7,107 23.4
North 45.5 32.6 20.0 4,478 14.8
Other votes 47.4 29.7 20.0 10,736 35.4

Election results in Maiwar at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes, Liberal National primary votes, Labor primary votes and Greens primary votes.

About the Author

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room. If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.