Gympie – QLD 2017

LNP 7.6%

Incumbent MP
Tony Perrett, since 2015.

Geography
Central Queensland. Gympie covers the Gympie urban area, other eastern parts of Gympie LGA and some northwestern parts of the Noosa council area. Apart from Gympie itself, the seat’s major centres are Tin Can Bay, Rainbow Beach, Cooran and Pomona.

Redistribution
Gympie shifted north-west, losing the remaining parts of the Noosa council area to the seat of Noosa, including Pomona, Kin Kin and Cooran. Gympie’s northern and western boundaries expanded to take in parts of Maryborough and Callide, including Gunalda, Widgee, Bells Bridge, Sexton, Lower Wonga and Bauple.


History
The seat of Gympie was first created in 1873. The seat was abolished in 1950, and restored in 1960. Barring two terms in the early 2000s, the seat has always been won by the Country/National party since its restoration in 1960.

Max Hodges won the seat for the Country Party in 1960. He held the seat until 1979.

Len Stephan won the seat for the National Country Party in 1979. He held the seat until his retirement in 2001.

Upon Stephan’s retirement in 2001, his seat was lost to One Nation’s Elisa Roberts.

Roberts left One Nation in early 2002. She won a second term in 2004, but lost the seat in 2006 to the National Party’s David Gibson. Gibson won a second term in 2009, and a third term in 2012.

Gibson retired in 2015, and was succeeded by the Liberal National Party’s Tony Perrett.

Candidates

Assessment
Gympie is a reasonably safe LNP seat on paper, although it is a strong area for One Nation.

2015 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Tony Perrett Liberal National 12,366 41.3 -11.7 41.2
Stephen Meredith Labor 6,971 23.3 +11.0 23.1
Shane Paulger Katter’s Australian Party 4,804 16.0 -5.8 14.0
Mitchell Frost Palmer United Party 3,384 11.3 +11.3 12.3
Shena Macdonald Greens 2,414 8.1 -0.4 6.2
Others 2.4
One Nation 0.8
Informal 673 2.2

2015 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Tony Perrett Liberal National 13,833 57.1 -10.2 57.6
Stephen Meredith Labor 10,394 42.9 +10.2 42.4
Exhausted 5,712 19.1

Booth breakdown

Booths in Gympie have been divided into three areas. Polling places in the Gympie urban area were grouped together, with the remaining booths split into north and south.

The Liberal National primary vote ranged from 38% in Gympie and the north to 45% in the south.

Labor’s primary vote ranged from 17% in the south to 25% in Gympie.

Katter’s Australian Party polled under 12% in the north and over 17% in Gympie and the south.

The Palmer United Party vote was clustered around 12-14% in all three areas.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % KAP prim % PUP prim % Total votes % of votes
Gympie 38.4 25.1 17.1 12.5 8,026 26.8
North 38.3 23.8 11.8 13.8 7,271 24.3
South 45.4 17.2 17.1 12.3 3,795 12.7
Other votes 43.7 23.1 12.2 11.1 10,864 36.3

Election results in Gympie at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes, Liberal National primary votes, Labor primary votes, Katter’s Australian Party primary votes and Palmer United Party primary votes.

13 COMMENTS

  1. Gympie would be fertile ground for PHON and or KAP. Not sure on how they would take to Pauline’s support for John Howard’s gun legislation though. After all they call it the gun toting capital of Australia. But with KAP looking likely to run here and compulsory preferential voting it might depend on who KAP get to run. It will be one I’ll be watching on election night.

  2. This will come down to Labor preferences. If KAP doesn’t run, then PHON will be in with a strong chance, likely taking votes from Labor and the LNP.

  3. If KAP run here, you would expect a One Nation win, as the preference deal would put them in the top two with a low 40% vote, and then stray labor or LNP preferences would deliver the seat to One Nation.

  4. I don’t understand that mindset. You think there are a lot of voters that would vote LNP in straight LNP vs PHON, but given the chance to vote KAP above them both are more likely to go PHON over LNP?

    I don’t think people, especially not 3rd party voters, follow HTV cards that strictly. The difference in the 2PP vote if KAP ran and excluded in 3rd would be negligible.

  5. So Gympie becomes a One Nation gain with the max that they can get is 46% of first preference votes. Which on preferences would likely see Gympie become a Safe One Nation seat?

  6. Depends on preference leakage. If Labor can fluke a Top 2 spot then it becomes a lot more easier for One Nation too.

    Still most likely result is as Queensland Observer said, an LNP retain on Labor preferences.

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