Ferny Grove – QLD 2017

ALP 5.3%

Incumbent MP
Mark Furner, since 2015.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Ferny Grove covers northern parts of the City of Brisbane and southern parts of Moreton Bay LGA, on the northwestern fringe of Brisbane. The seat covers the suburbs of Ferny Grove, Ferny Hills, Arana Hills, Enoggera, Upper Kedron and parts of Keperra, Gaythorne and Alderley.

Redistribution
Ferny Grove was pulled further into the metro Brisbane area, losing Samford Village, Highvale, Draper, Mount Nebo, Wights Mountain, Mount Glorious, Cedar Creek and Closeburn to Pine Rivers. Ferny Grove gained Enoggera and part of Alderley from Ashgrove and swapped some territory with Everton. These changes increased the Labor margin from 0.8% to 5.3%.


History

Ferny Grove has existed since 1992, and has been won by Labor at every election except 2012.

It was first won in 1992 by Glen Milliner, who had held the neighbouring seat of Everton since 1977. He became a minister in the Goss government in 1989. He continued to serve as a minister until the government lost power in 1996, and he retired from Parliament in 1998.

Ferny Grove was won in 1998 by Geoff Wilson. Wilson held Ferny Grove for five terms, and served as a minister from 2004 to 2012.

In 2012, Wilson was defeated by LNP candidate Dale Shuttleworth. Shuttleworth held the seat for one term, losing in 2015 to Labor’s Mark Furner.

Candidates

Assessment
Ferny Grove is a marginal Labor seat, and could be in play. The redistribution has strengthened Labor’s position, and makes the seat much less critical than in recent elections, but it could still be vulnerable if there is a swing to the LNP.

2015 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Dale Shuttleworth Liberal National 13,214 44.6 -9.8 42.0
Mark Furner Labor 11,253 38.0 +6.6 42.6
Michael Berkman Greens 3,589 12.1 -2.1 11.4
Mark Taverner Palmer United Party 993 3.4 +3.4 2.1
Di Gittins Independent 588 2.0 +2.0 1.3
Others 0.6
Informal 459 1.5

2015 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Mark Furner Labor 14,445 50.8 +10.3 55.3
Dale Shuttleworth Liberal National 13,979 49.2 -10.3 44.7
Exhausted 1,213 4.1

Booth breakdown

Booths in Ferny Grove have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.

The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 54.5% in the west to 58% in the centre.

The Greens vote ranged from 10.7% in the east to 13.3% in the centre.

Voter group GRN prim % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
West 12.0 54.5 9,133 28.6
Central 13.3 58.0 7,945 24.9
East 10.7 55.6 4,594 14.4
Other votes 9.9 51.0 10,239 32.1

Election results in Ferny Grove at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

About the Author

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room. If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.