Condamine – QLD 2017

LNP 17.1%

Incumbent MP
Pat Weir, since 2015.

Geography
Southern Queensland. Condamine covers rural areas to the west of Toowoomba, covering parts of Toowoomba and Dalby local government areas. The seat covers Dalby, Oakey, Pittsworth, Clifton and some outer parts of Toowoomba.

Redistribution
Condamine lost Dalby to Warrego, and gained Coombungee and Hampton from Nanango. These changes increased the LNP margin from 16.3% to 17.1%.


History
The seat of Condamine was created newly at the 2009 election, taking parts of the abolished seats of Darling Downs and Cunningham. The seat of Condamine had previously existed as a seat from 1950 to 1992, and for most of that time was held by the Country Party/National Party.

The district of Cunningham existed continuously from 1888 to 2009, and was won by the Country/National Party at every election from 1920 onwards.

Tony Elliott held Cunningham for the National Party from 1974 to 2001. He served as a minister in the Bjelke-Petersen government from 1980 to 1983, and again served as an opposition frontbencher in the early 1990s.

Elliott retired in 2001, and was succeeded by fellow National Stuart Copeland. Copeland won re-election in 2004 and 2006.

The seat of Darling Downs was created in 2001, with the same name as an earlier seat that had been abolished in 1888.

In 2001, the seat was won by independent candidate Ray Hopper, who joined the National Party later the same year.

Hopper joined the opposition frontbench in 2004, and won a second and third term as Member for Darling Downs.

Both Hopper and Copeland joined the newly-merged Liberal National Party in 2008, and when their seats were abolished in the 2008 redistribution, Hopper won LNP preselection for Condamine.

Hopper and Copeland both ran for Condamine in 2009, Hopper as the LNP candidate and Copeland as an independent. Hopper won the seat with 61.6% of the two-candidate-preferred vote, with Copeland coming second. Copeland managed 25% of the primary vote.

Ray Hopper was easily re-elected in 2012, winning 58% of the primary vote and over 70% of the two-candidate-preferred vote. In November 2012, he resigned from the LNP and joined Katter’s Australian Party and became the KAP state parliamentary leader shortly afterwards.

Hopper decided to run for the seat of Nanango at the 2015 election, but was unsuccessful. The LNP’s Pat Weir won Condamine.

Candidates

Assessment
Labor is no threat to the LNP in Condamine, but the seat is a strong area for One Nation, who outpolled Labor in the area at the 2016 Senate election. If One Nation is doing well, they could pose a threat here.

2015 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Pat Weir Liberal National 17,028 51.2 -7.1 51.5
Brendon Huybregts Labor 7,271 21.9 +7.7 20.6
Ben Hopper Katter’s Australian Party 5,059 15.2 -6.1 15.7
Alexandra Todd Family First 1,455 4.4 +4.4 3.3
Pamela Fay Weekes Greens 1,306 3.9 -0.1 3.7
Shane White Independent 1,150 3.5 +1.3 2.2
Palmer United Party 2.3
Others 0.7
Informal 710 2.1

2015 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Pat Weir Liberal National 18,837 66.3 -3.8 67.1
Brendon Huybregts Labor 9,584 33.7 +3.8 32.9
Exhausted 4,848 14.6

Booth breakdown

Booths in Condamine have been divided into four areas. Polling places on the outskirts of Toowoomba were grouped together, and the remainder of the seat was split into central, north and south.

The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 64.4% in the centre to 71% in the south.

Katter’s Australian Party came third, with a vote ranging from 15.3% on the outskirts of Toowoomba to 18% in the centre.

Voter group KAP prim % LNP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Central 18.0 64.4 8,080 27.8
Toowoomba Outskirts 15.3 65.6 5,953 20.5
North 15.7 69.8 3,238 11.1
South 16.4 70.9 2,153 7.4
Other votes 13.7 67.9 9,665 33.2

Election results in Condamine at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Katter’s Australian Party primary votes.

About the Author

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room. If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.