Callide – QLD 2017

LNP 9.8%

Incumbent MP
Jeff Seeney, since 1998.

Geography
Central Queensland. Callide covers regional areas inland from the central Queensland coast. The seat covers Biloela, Moura, Monto, Eidsvold, Mundubbera, Gayndah, Theodore, Taroom, Chinchilla, Calliope and Wandoan.

Redistribution
Callide lost its south-eastern corner, including Cherbourg, to Nanango, and lost a small area to the west of Bundaberg to Burnett. Callide took in the southern rural parts of the Gladstone council area from the seat of Gladstone (to the north of Callide), and northern parts of the Western Downs council area from the seats of Warrego, Nanango and Condamine.


History
Callide was created at the 1950 election, and apart from a short period in the 1980s has always been dominated by the Country/National/Liberal National parties.

Vincent Jones held the seat for the Country Party from 1950 to 1971.

At the 1972 election the seat was won by the Country Party’s Lindsay Hartwig. Hartwig won further terms in 1974, 1977 and 1980. In 1981 Hartwig was expelled from the National Country Party. He won re-election in 1983 as an independent and retired in 1986.

Di McCauley held Callide for the National Party from 1986 until 1998.

In 1998, McCauley was succeeded by Jeff Seeney.

Seeney won re-election in 2001, 2004 and 2006, and after the 2006 election became Leader of the National Party.

In 2008, Seeney was replaced by his predecessor Lawrence Springborg, who led the Nationals into a merger with the Liberal Party later that year.

Seeney won re-election as a Liberal National candidate in 2009, 2012 and 2015.

In March 2011, Campbell Newman replaced John-Paul Langbroek as leader of the LNP. As Newman did not hold a seat in the Parliament, Seeney was appointed as interim parliamentary leader.

Jeff Seeney served as deputy premier in the Newman government, and moved to the backbench after the 2015 election.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Jeff Seeney is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Labor is no threat to the LNP in Callide. Seeney only held on by approximately 6% in 2015 against the Palmer United Party, and One Nation has previously performed well in this area, including at the 2016 Senate election, so the LNP may face a serious threat from One Nation.

2015 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Jeff Seeney Liberal National 12,815 46.5 -6.8 45.1
John Bjelke-Petersen Palmer United Party 6,944 25.2 +25.2 17.7
Graeme Martin Labor 5,312 19.3 +4.5 24.1
Erich Schulz Greens 848 3.1 -0.2 3.0
Steve Ensby Independent 718 2.6 +2.6 2.6
Michael Higginson Independent 538 2.0 +2.0 2.0
Duncan Scott Independent 384 1.4 -0.7 1.4
Others 3.8
Katter’s Australian Party 0.3
Informal 449 1.6

2015 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes %
Jeff Seeney Liberal National 13,444 56.7
John Bjelke-Petersen Palmer United Party 10,280 43.3
Exhausted 3,835 13.9

Booth breakdown

Booths in Callide have been divided into three areas: east, north-west and south.

The Liberal National Party’s primary vote ranged from 35.6% in the east to 56% in the south.

The Labor vote ranged from 21% in the south to 28% in the east. The Palmer United Party vote ranged from 10.6% in the south to 27% in the north-west.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % PUP prim % Total votes % of votes
East 35.6 28.0 18.3 7,776 26.5
South 56.3 21.1 10.6 5,139 17.5
North-West 41.7 22.1 27.1 4,511 15.4
Other votes 47.7 23.6 16.8 11,878 40.5

Election results in Callide at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between Liberal National primary votes, Labor primary votes and Palmer United Party primary votes.

12 COMMENTS

  1. Katter has a candidate here. Rob Radel who is a councillor for a Biggenden area. He has decent profile as well.

    One Nation and Katter might split the LNP vote here. There were some outstanding future minister candidates in the LNP preselection but they got beat by a candidate that resembled the typical One Nation, Katter, Palmer type. I don’t know if that was smart or dumb. Part of me thinks a younger and more modern candidate would have been a nice contrast.

    Could be a seat to watch.

  2. It really annoys me that the Hanson rating matters at all, she won’t be Premier and can’t be. It should be Steve Dickson forced to front the media on policy and so forth. Pauline is a federal senator, her job is to run Australia, not Qld elections. It annoys me. PS I think One Nation have this seat and Gympie.

  3. But the Prime Minister and Bill Shorten come to QLD to campaign for their parties and Richard Di Natale for the Greens why can’t One Nations leader come and campaign in her home state for her party??

  4. She can campaign, nobody is saying she can’t or shouldn’t.
    FTB’s clearly talking about including her in a poll of favorability for QLD state leaders. If we’re including Hanson, may as well include Trump, Taylor Swift and Sean Connerry; they’ve all got as much chance as Hanson of being Queensland premier after this election.

  5. Whilst this seat will be tight between the LNP and PHON, I think the LNP will still just win.

    KAP will finish a respectable fourth and their vote should flow strongly to PHON. But once Labor is knocked out in third, I think they’ll ensure a victory for the LNP.

    Interestingly, the Poll neglected to provide a primary figure for Labor?

  6. Has to be Lohse the ONE candidate. If Lynette Keehn’s massive poll of 2016 is an indication for this, after the ssm vote, the Darling Downs wants some solid, down to earth respectability free of past self-serving. Party platform and individual commitment parallels the people’s wishes and needs.

  7. Sorry haven’t visited this one in a while @NQ View yes that’s exactly what I was saying. She can campaign but she’s been here nearly all election, launches their policies, fronts the media on them, is on ads, in the paper next to Tim Nicholls and the Premier. It’s sad. It’s because she knows Steve Dickson is a dud who won’t win his seat.

  8. In saying that LNP retain just in a very close one but a potential upset win for One Nation wouldn’t surprise me.

  9. I pretty much echo Feel the Bern. I would add to expect differences in booths. So wait til a few flow in to see it balance out.

    My only caveat is if the Katter vote is stronger than expected and weakens the Labor vote. That might get One Nation up.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here