Aspley – QLD 2017

LNP 3.2%

Incumbent MP
Tracy Davis, since 2009.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Aspley covers the northern Brisbane suburbs of Bridgeman Downs, Carseldine, Aspley and parts of Bald Hills, McDowall and Chermside West.

Redistribution
Aspley gained parts of Geebung and Zillmere from Nudgee and lost a small area in the seat’s north-east to Sandgate. These changes cut the LNP margin from 5.2% to 3.2%.


History
The seat of Aspley has existed since 1960. For most of that period the seat was contested between the Liberal Party and the National Party, apart from the period from 2001 to 2009 when it was held by the ALP.

Fred Campbell held the seat for the Liberal Party from 1960 to 1980. He was succeeded in 1980 by Beryce Nelson, who won the seat for the Liberal Party.

In 1983, Nelson lost to the National Party’s candidate, former newsreader Brian Cahill.

After losing the seat, Nelson switched to the National Party, and was elected again as Member for Aspley in 1986. In 1989, Nelson was again defeated, losing to the Liberal Party’s John Goss.

Goss helped the seat throughout the 1990s, twice serving as a shadow minister in National-Liberal coalitions.

In 2001, Goss was defeated by the ALP’s Bonny Barry. Barry won successive terms in 2004 and 2006, and in 2009 was defeated by the Liberal National Party’s Tracy Davis.

Davis was re-elected in 2012 and 2015, and she has served on the LNP’s frontbench since 2010.

Candidates

Assessment
Aspley is a marginal LNP seat.

2015 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Tracy Davis Liberal National 14,868 52.4 -13.0 49.3
Gayle Dallaston Labor 10,835 38.2 +14.7 40.0
Noel Clothier Greens 2,663 9.4 +2.0 9.5
Palmer United Party 0.7
Others 0.5
Informal 497 1.7

2015 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Tracy Davis Liberal National 15,276 55.2 -16.6 53.2
Gayle Dallaston Labor 12,412 44.8 +16.6 46.8
Exhausted 678 2.4

Booth breakdown

Booths in Aspley have been divided into three areas: north, south-east and south-west.

 

The LNP won over 60% of the two-party-preferred vote in the south-west, while losing to labor in the north and the south-east.

The Greens primary vote ranged from 9% in the south-west to 11% in the north.

Voter group GRN prim % LNP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
South-East 10.7 43.8 7,562 25.7
South-West 9.0 60.3 7,487 25.5
North 11.0 40.9 2,241 7.6
Other votes 8.8 55.2 12,112 41.2

Election results in Aspley at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

About the Author

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room. If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.