Warrego – Queensland 2015

LNP 25.06%

Incumbent MP
Howard Hobbs, since 1986.

Geography
South-Western Queensland. The seat covers the south-western corner of Queensland, bordering New South Wales and South Australia. Warrego covers Balonne, Bulloo, Murweh, Paroo, Roma and parts of Dalby and Toowoomba local government areas. The seat’s major centres include St George, Cunnamulla, Thargomindah, Chinchilla, Miles, Roma and Charleville.

History
The seat of Warrego has existed continuously since 1865. The seat was held by the ALP continuously from 1908 to 1974. The seat has been held by Country/National/Liberal National MPs since 1974.

Neil Turner won Warrego for the Country Party in 1974. He held the seat until 1986. He later returned to Parliament as Member for Nicklin from 1990 to 1998, when he lost to independent candidate Peter Wellington. He served as Speaker of the Legislative Assembly from 1996 to 1998.

Howard Hobbs won Warrego for the National Party in 1986. He has been re-elected for a further nine terms since 1986.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Howard Hobbs is not running for re-election.

  • Ruth Golden (Independent)
  • Ann Leahy (Liberal National)
  • Guy Sara (Palmer United)
  • Mark O’Brien (Labor)
  • Sandra Bayley (Greens)

Assessment
Warrego is a very safe LNP seat.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Howard Hobbs Liberal National 13,770 58.13 -1.63
Robert Earixson Katter’s Australian 3,330 14.06 +14.06
Mark O’Brien Independent 3,124 13.19 +13.19
David Bowden Labor 2,995 12.64 -6.31
Graeme Maizey Greens 470 1.98 +0.2

2012 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Howard Hobbs Liberal National 15,107 75.06 +0.72
Mark O’Brien Independent 5,019 24.94 +24.94
Polling places in Warrego at the 2012 Queensland state election. Balonne in yellow, Dalby in green, Roma in red, West in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Warrego at the 2012 Queensland state election. Balonne in yellow, Dalby in green, Roma in red, West in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Warrego have been split into four parts. Most of the population of the seat lives in three council areas covering the eastern half of the seat. Polling places in these three council areas (Dalby, Roma and Balonne) have been grouped along council boundaries. The remaining polling places, in Bulloo, Murweh and Paroo council areas have been grouped as “West”.

The Liberal National Party won a majority of the primary vote in three out of four areas, with a vote ranging from 44.5% in the west to 57.4% in Roma.

Katter’s Australian Party came second on primary votes with a vote ranging from 8.1% in the west to 20.1% in Dalby. KAP came second in Dalby, but came third or fourth in the other areas.

Independent candidate Mark O’Brien came third on primary votes, although he overtook KAP to come second on Labor preferences. O’Brien’s primary vote ranged from 8.3% in Balonne to 28% in the west.

Labor came fourth, with a vote ranging from 10.9% in Dalby to 24.3% in Balonne.

Voter group LNP prim % KAP prim % IND prim % ALP prim % Total % of votes
Dalby 56.55 20.06 9.97 10.90 6,127 25.86
Roma 57.44 13.55 13.99 13.72 4,781 20.18
West 44.52 8.07 27.98 18.20 2,280 9.62
Balonne 55.12 11.01 8.34 24.25 1,571 6.63
Other votes 63.58 12.27 12.04 9.80 8,930 37.70
Liberal National primary votes in Warrego at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Liberal National primary votes in Warrego at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Mark O'Brien in Warrego at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Mark O’Brien in Warrego at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter's Australian Party primary votes in Warrego at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter’s Australian Party primary votes in Warrego at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in Warrego at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in Warrego at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Liberal National primary votes in eastern parts of Warrego at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Liberal National primary votes in eastern parts of Warrego at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Mark O'Brien in eastern parts of Warrego at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Mark O’Brien in eastern parts of Warrego at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter's Australian Party primary votes in eastern parts of Warrego at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter’s Australian Party primary votes in eastern parts of Warrego at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in eastern parts of Warrego at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in eastern parts of Warrego at the 2012 Queensland state election.

19 COMMENTS

  1. With Mark O’Brian running for the ALP, plus the collapse in KAP vote, plus swing against LNP, plus the loss of Hobbs personal vote, it will be interesting to see the margin after the election. Defiantly an LNP hold but maybe not with a margin above 10%

  2. Hobbs had come close to defeat in 2001 at the hands of butcher Wally Gleeson, running as an independent. Gleeson tried again in 2009 but finished 3rd

  3. Labor no chance here despite the strong candidate. Anyone who thinks people in a seat like this would ever consider voting Labor is crazy. It’s sad in a way….liked the guy enough to vote him Mayor but because ALP is next to his name, suddenly no dice. This goes someway to analyzing why people in seats like this have received nothing. They vote same way all time and never pull up an MP who hasn’t done his or her job.

  4. 2001 an example. Massive pro Labor sentiment across state, the federal Liberal gov unpopular at time. What does this seat do? Do they vote Labor and go with trend? Nope……couldn’t possibly do that so they vote an indipendant who would have had absolutely no power. No one would have begrudged them voting Labor at that election.

  5. However often in seats like these theres never a strong labor candidate which is why they’d rather vote independent even in 2001 like you say. If he is a popular enough mayor he should get a very respectable vote here and I’d say he would given this is a rare time where labor has a good candidate in a LNP stronghold in the country

  6. Something must be going on in this seat. A visit from labor and Newman personally launching the campaign for the candidate. Could be right in my suggestion that this seat will swing big, possibly one of the largest pro-labor swings in the state

  7. Its almost illegal to vote labor in Warrego

    If LNP is not the answer they will vote independant

    Same in Parkes electorate in NSW

    Just need 89 independents and kill off crooked two party monopoly

  8. Hobbs first crack at the seat he won a 2PP of 53%. Mark O’brien is a strong candidate and theres a lot of potential for him to get a respectable vote and bring the margin for the LNP down quite significantly

  9. Agree 100 percent with Dave. The fact O’Brien now has ALP next to his name will mean people will forget that they like him.

  10. Country voters vote on personality and give very little consideration to the party. If the candidate is conservative here then they will win rather then just being an LNP but theres still a backlash against the LNP, retirement factor and collapse in the KAP support, O’Brian could very likely get high 20s, low 30s which would be good for a labor candidate in this seat given its history in the last 15 years

  11. Country people wont vote for anything with ALP after its name

    Nothing personal its just they hate Socialists with a passion

    In 2012 Nobody anywhere voted ALP with more seats in a Toyota Tarago
    then Queensland Labor , Hardly enough members to form an opposition at all
    and everyone got a shadow ministry

    However expect a 12% swing away from LNP this time as they
    were a Dog of a Government and very unpopular all in just one term

    In this seat perhaps about 6-8% swing but dont expect it to go to ALP it will
    go to Conservative Independents and KAP etc

    Does anyone have an opinion on the result on the 31st

    I reckon about 43 LNP 38 ALP 1 ONP 3 KAP 3 IND
    Newman to lose his seat in Ashgrove to ALP

    One thing a flood of ALP members will return to Parliament but not in the bush

    Antony Green from the ABC has an interesting calculaor which you can use to predict
    a result of the election

    ALP supporters will be very happy with this election even if they dont win
    the result whatever it is will give the a respectful amount of seats

    It is not good for democracy when you have 74 seats in Governement to 8 seats
    in opposition.Just look what happens when that much power is given to any Government
    Fortunatly it will be addressed on the 31st

  12. There used to be good Labor vote in Charleville & Cunnamulla which made this a marginal seat but one vote one value meant they were entirely swamped by ultra-conservative rural areas & then Labor’s town vote collapsed as well in 90s. Guessing Labor will get a big swing but might thereeir interests have been better served by encouraging O’Brien to run as Ind again

  13. To Dave Smith: i find it amusing that country people regard ALP as socialists when the Nats/KAP are nothing more than agrarian socialists themselves. I think its more the social policies that sway country people to vote conservative.

  14. Kris Country people do not believe in wasting money Borrowed money which now is costing us a billion a month in interest. Socialists are very good at wasting other peoples money
    That is why the country is in such a mess Tell you what You can have all the social policies you like let labor voters pay for them with their own cash

  15. How many social policies can you fund with a billion a month we are wasting on interest as our dollar sinks to 80 cents and we repay it in US dollars

    When we are Bankrupt you will need a lot more social policies

    23 million people with a shrinking tax base cant afford any debt at all

    We had 20 billion in the bank in 2007 now look at us

    Banana Republic here we come

  16. Dave here clearly hates waste. He reduces waste of black ink or pixels by never wasting them on punctuation.

    … anyway, on to the thing I was gonna say. What made Charleville and Cunnamulla so much better for Labor than the rest of western Qld? Was there some heavily unionised industry there that didn’t exist in Roma or Dalby?

    I wouldn’t be surprised if O’Brien cracks 30% primary, just by consolidating the votes of himself, the 2012 Labor guy, and the non-contesting KAP. He could do that without shifting the 2pp margin much. He oughta do alright in Charlevile (where he used to be mayor); meanwhile, the independent Ruth Golden is from Roma, so if she’s done her ground work she might get a decent result there.

  17. Labor got some pretty good results in the west. 58% and 54% in Charleville (compared to 16% and 15% in 2012!), 50% in Cunnamulla, and above 40% in another few little towns. Probably Labor’s best results anywhere west of the divide.

  18. Interesting Labor bounceback there along with Maryborough & Bundaberg maybe a sign of particular swing among low income & less educated voters

Comments are closed.