LNP 1.38% vs KAP
Incumbent MP
Sam Cox, since 2012.
Geography
Far North Queensland. Thuringowa covers southern and western suburbs of Townsville, including Alice River, Thuringowa Central, Condon, Rasmussen, Kelso and parts of Deeragun and Kirwan.
History
The seat of Thuringowa has existed since 1986. The seat has been won by the ALP at all but one election, with One Nation interrupting the Labor hold on the seat in 1998.
Thuringowa was won in 1986 by Labor MP Ken McElligott, who had been first elected in Townsville in 1983. He served as a minister in the Goss government from 1989 to 1991 and again from 1995 to 1996.
At the 1998 election, McElligott was defeated by One Nation’s Ken Turner. Turner, like every other One Nation MP elected at the 1998 election, soon left the party, becoming an independent in 1999.
Labor candidate Anita Phillips defeated Turner in 2001. She served one term before stepping down in 2004 to run for the federal seat of Herbert, unsuccessfully.
Craig Wallace retained the seat for Labor in 2004 and was re-elected in 2006 and 2009. Wallace served as a minister from 2006 to 2012.
In 2012, Wallace was defeated by LNP candidate Sam Cox. Labor suffered a 22% swing on primary votes, and dropped to third place behind Katter’s Australian Party.
Candidates
- Jeffrey Knuth (One Nation)
- Michael Waters (Family First)
- Sam Cox (Liberal National)
- Karen Thompson (Greens)
- Margaret Bell (Independent)
- Ian Ferguson (Palmer United)
- Aaron Harper (Labor)
Assessment
Thuringowa was considered a reasonably safe seat before the 2012 election, with Labor holding the seat from 2001 to 2012. The seat has also been a strong area for populist minor parties, with One Nation winning the seat in 1998 and Katter’s Australian Party winning 30% in 2012.
Thuringowa will be the kind of seat where Katter’s Australian Party and the Palmer United Party would be hoping to do well in 2012, but there will presumably be a swing back to Labor that will turn the seat into a Labor-LNP race, with Labor in a strong position to regain the seat.
2012 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Sam Cox | Liberal National | 9,837 | 36.14 | +2.28 |
| Steve Todeschini | Katter’s Australian | 8,201 | 30.13 | +30.13 |
| Craig Wallace | Labor | 7,448 | 27.36 | -21.78 |
| Bernie Williams | Greens | 986 | 3.62 | -0.64 |
| Adrian Britton | Family First | 749 | 2.75 | +2.75 |
2012 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Sam Cox | Liberal National | 10,857 | 51.38 | +9.85 |
| Steve Todeschini | Katter’s Australian | 10,274 | 48.62 | +48.62 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Thuringowa have been divided into three parts. The booths closest to the Townsville city centre have been grouped as “Central”, while the rest has been split into “South” and “West”.
The Liberal National Party topped the poll in the Central area, with 40% of the primary vote. The KAP and LNP both polled exactly the same vote in the south, while the KAP topped the vote in the west.
On an estimated two-candidate-preferred basis between the LNP and the KAP, the LNP won a solid 57% majority in the centre, while KAP won 52.6% in the south and 59% in the west.
The Electoral Commission does not publish two-candidate-preferred figures by polling place, so two-candidate-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.
| Voter group | LNP prim % | KAP prim % | ALP prim % | LNP 2CP % | Total | % of votes |
| Central | 40.20 | 25.37 | 27.85 | 57.06 | 10,592 | 38.91 |
| South | 32.26 | 32.26 | 29.33 | 47.36 | 7,389 | 27.14 |
| West | 30.86 | 42.79 | 22.30 | 40.99 | 3,578 | 13.14 |
| Other votes | 36.93 | 28.24 | 27.08 | 53.00 | 5,662 | 20.80 |
This is the one seat Labor could win where they didn’t feature in the runoff last time. Antony Green estimates a 2PP margin of LNP 6.6% v ALP.
The 2012 preference distribution is interesting. Even after the elimination of the minor party candidates, all three remaining candidates were well under 40%. Labor preferences were decisive, but two thirds exhausted. The remainder split 2-1 in favour of KAP. A stronger flow, or smaller exhaust rate, could have tipped it to KAP.
Some see this as a weakness of OPV; large numbers of voters relinquishing their say in the final choice of candidate. I see it as a strength; not being forced to choose between two equally unpalatable alternatives.
I don’t see how the LNP can hold on here, the huge primary vote KAP received here in 2012 will likely go back to Labor. This seat has a strong tradition of being a Labor seat and with Labor pouring resources into Thuringowa like they have been, they are the favourites. I think it will be a safe seat again for Labor post-election.
Labor pouring resources into Thuringowa? Where? When? How?
Galaxy Poll – ALP 52-48
Margaret Bell is a candidate for the federally-registered Australian Voice Party
http://www.australianvoice.org/q.html
High profile candidate for One Nation in former One Nation MP and 2012 KAP candidate for Hinchinbrook Jeff Knuth. Presumably he’ll scoop up some of the 2012 KAP vote, but agree you’d have to expect Labor should get this one back.
Interested to see if Jeff Knuth will have much influence on the vote here. Surely he would have to capitalise on much of the former Katter Party vote from last time?
I don’t think all the katter vote will go to knuth. Some will go to pup, sone to labor, some even yo the lnp.
Interesting to see Jeff Knuth’s career has effectively came full circle. I wouldn’t be surprised if he polls better than Pauline will in Lockyer
Agree with that comment, he may get closer to 30% of the primary, Pauline will probably poll high 20s. If Jeff dilutes the natural swing back to Labor enough, this could hand another win to Sam Cox who will likely poll only 30-35% primary again. Will be an interesting finish.
LNP were at one stage 12 bucs on Sportsbet in this seat. They’re still 9. Worth a punt.