Stretton – Queensland 2015

LNP 9.55%

Incumbent MP
Freya Ostapovitch, since 2012.

Geography
Southern Brisbane. Stretton covers the suburbs of Kuraby, Calamvale, Drewvale, Stretton and parts of Runcorn and Sunnybank Hills, at the southern end of the City of Brisbane.

History
Stretton was created in 2001, replacing the seat of Sunnybank which had existed since 1992.

Labor’s Stephen Robertson held the seat of Sunnybank and then Stretton continuously from 1992 to 2012. He served as a minister in the Beattie/Bligh government from 1998 to 2012.

In 2012, Robertson retired, and Stretton was won by LNP candidate Freya Ostapovitch with a 19% swing.

Candidates

Assessment
Stretton has tended to be a reasonably safe Labor seat up until the 2012 election, and Labor will be hoping to win it back as part of a statewide pro-Labor swing.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Freya Ostapovitch Liberal National 13,000 46.85 +9.75
Duncan Pegg Labor 7,968 28.72 -24.86
David Forde Independent 5,259 18.95 +18.95
Brian Sadler Greens 1,521 5.48 -3.84

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Freya Ostapovitch Liberal National 14,239 59.55 +19.03
Duncan Pegg Labor 9,670 40.45 -19.03
Polling places in Stretton at the 2012 Queensland state election. North-East in orange, North-West in blue, South in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Stretton at the 2012 Queensland state election. North-East in orange, North-West in blue, South in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Stretton have been divided into three parts: north-east, north-west and south.

The LNP topped the poll in all three areas, winning 46-48% of the primary vote in each area. The LNP vote was strongest in the north-east.

The ALP’s vote ranged from 22.5% in the north-east to 32.8% in the south.

The vote for independent candidate David Forde ranged from 16.7% in the south to 24.8% in the north-east. Forde outpolled Labor in the north-east.

The LNP is estimated to have won the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 56.6% in the south to 64.2% in the north-east.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % IND prim % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
North-West 46.17 30.29 18.19 58.23 7,659 27.60
South 45.77 32.79 16.66 56.56 6,646 23.95
North-East 47.95 22.45 24.79 64.18 5,558 20.03
Other votes 47.65 28.17 17.51 60.28 7,885 28.42
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Stretton at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Stretton at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate David Forde in Stretton at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate David Forde in Stretton at the 2012 Queensland state election.

184 COMMENTS

  1. Brisbane Times (Fairfax) is even worse. Any wonder they don’t print it, even the fish shops and cat litter trays would knock it back!

    BUT, in keeping with the fact this IS the Stretton page, what do contributors (and Benny Raue, please feel free to add your input in this too) make of the Freya Ostapovitch sign on Mains Road outside Hatzis Lawyers (and therefore adjacent to the building that houses her electorate office) that has the LNP logo covered up? Panicking about her own party’s chances/ Abiding by some law preventing political advertising within a certain distance of an electorate office? Or (and I doubt this, given Mains Rd is an insanely BUSY road) is it political vandalism? Your thoughts welcome. GO!!

  2. I think it would be impossible to guess what’s in Freya’s mind, having had discussions with her on a few occasions she seems to be in a very different place.

  3. Well, I grew up in the electorate. I was raised in Sunnybank until we moved to Runcorn in 1970. If any of you can prove a closer link to the area, please do so. I am getting a little bit tired of those of you who actually have no idea of the electorate. I am waiting for any of you to provide a decent response on behalf of your area.

  4. I grew up in the area, Adrienne. I was born in the 60’s and have lived in the electorate MY entire life. I have a very good idea of what the electorate is about. I also have a mind of my own and will voice opinion where necessary.

  5. Not to mention my grandparents have lived in the electorate since it’s beginning. Adrienne, you appear to be very narrow-minded and unable to take on or consider other opinions. Again, I will restate, people have the right to voice an opinion. By the way, I am not panicking! I voted as soon as pre-polling opened.

  6. I have put Peter Taylor on permanent moderation after some comments that easily breached the comments policy, and I have deleted a large number of comments from a tedious conversation involving insults and comparisons about whose family has lived in the area longer. I’m willing to ban others if necessary too.

  7. Okay, the “permanent moderation” I can cop – IF it’s genuinely waranted. BUT what I CANNOT understand is that those who are obviously LEFT can slag off willy-nilly unchecked, but whenever anyone else returns fire, it’s deleted, or “moderated”. Where is Adrienne Cremmin’s “permanent moderation”, since she, too, was party to that same “tedious conversation” and delivered her own share of insults and attacks? At least I have the courage and transparency to comment under my full name!

  8. Discussion should be about candidates and what they are or are not doing. Will be very interesting to see the outcome on Saturday.

  9. FINALLY we get back to discussion on what REALLY matters – the CANDIDATES! Ben, I am glad you took action to stem the pathetic, gutter-level personal attack type comments here! We’re talking about – potentially – who will govern our great state for the next 3 years or so, not some school yard popularity contest amongst teenagers. The way I see it, the LNP will probably lose around 20-25 seats statewide. As for THIS seat, I think it will be a close result. Whils I do agree with a lot of comments here (and I’ve heard it elsewhere) that the incumbent has been anything less than impressive in her performance thusfar, I just don’t think the ALP candidate has gained enough equity in the minds of the electorate as far as being seen as a viable alternative. As for the other two candidates – the Greens’ Brian Sadler and Independent David Forde, well, I guess anything is possible but most people still seem to be locked into a 2 horse race when it comes to voting. Shame, really, as there are often quite talented people who DON’T belong to either of the major parties, yet they are often overlooked. I guess only time will tell, and if you’re over the saturation propaganda from all and sundry like I am, then that time can’t come soon enough!

  10. Hi Peter,

    I’m not going to enter into discussion here about decisions – email me if you wish. I read through all the comments before I deleted them, and your comments were substantially more insulting and aggressive.

  11. I was very interested to see an interview on the 7:30 report with Tony Fitzgerald, he was very disillusioned with Party Politics and considers both the ALP and NLP have trampled on democracy in this state. I must say I share his disgust with the direction of both the ALP and NLP and will personally support independents in the future until the Majors change their mode of operation with privileged access and policy outcomes for their supporters/donors.

  12. Since I commenced voting back in the 80s, I have changed my political views quite substantially. At one point I was a devoted ALP supporter but became disillusioned with their points of view on issues. Then I became a member of the LNP. Again I found myself questioning their politics. Now I see myself as a swinging voter where I make an informed decision on their policies and agendas. I now vote for the person that has the interests of the greater community and contributes to the community not only during the campaign period, but through the entire term leading up to and including the campaign. Some of the candidates within this electorate become ghosts during a sitting term and only reappear during a campaign. Makes people think about why they go into hiding. What is their real agenda? Why can’t they support the community and listen to the people.

  13. Anne, I am reminded of an old political yarn that begins, “I’m a country remember…”. So too, will the electorate remember just who pulls the hard yards and who only turns up for photo opportunities or shopping centre walk-throughs (even if they ARE captured under an unfortunate shop sign!) at election time. Surely if one is considering putting their political future in the hands of the electorate, then one should take it upon oneself to make the choice beyond doubt in the minds of that electorate. Shame, then, that most of those sitting for Stretton have NOT chosen to prove beyond doubt why they should hold the esteemed and indeed very privileged position of public office serving the fine people of Stretton! I guess we will see on Saturday night just WHO has done the better job of convincing the Stretton voters of their credentials! We can only hope that, collectively, we make the RIGHT decision.

  14. any seat with an ALP history over the bulk of the last 20 years and a margin of less than 10% after a 19% swing…… is a probable labor gain

  15. I have abandoned both major parties as I am sick of the lies, pork barrelling, favours for mates, sense of Born to Rule, and absolute incompetent management skills. I mean really Queensland is an economic and social basket case due to poor Government for many years, we have unaffordable electricity (when we export coal & gas so cheaply to overseas countries) the highest vehicle registration charges in the country, a health system in crisis (Payroll Scandal anyone $1.2 billion) a water recycling and desalination system that cost Billions rusting and unnecessary. A Traveston Crossing Dam that was initiated by the Labor State government in 2006 cancelled in November 2009, after being refused approval by federal Environment Labor Minister Peter Garrett this debacle cost us Billions. How many more costly screw-ups can we as a State afford? Can any reasonable thinking person really support the Drones the Party machine put to us as local candidates? They are preselected on the basis of their ability to be controlled by the Party Machine, they don’t represent us, they take a massive pay check to follow the Party Line.

  16. “Anne” you say your grandparents were here? Well, isn’t that lovely? I believe that the Labor vote will blitz this area. People are very unhappy with the LNP. Most of them are not taking anyone’s votes but they are very determined. No-one appears to be interested in Independents or the minor parties. But, before I get a nasty email back, I say, “Wait until the count comes back”. However, if the Independent candidate wins the vote, well, I say, “Well done.” As I have said, no one would ever begrudge his work ethic, or his ability for self promotion, either. I just happen to believe that the Labor candidate is better overall. And I am entitled to my belief, just as he is, his.

  17. Adrienne if the Independent Candidate for Stretton David Forde wins on Saturday I think you at least should hand over a bottle from your private stock, a good strong Red. I am certainly hoping that both the ALP and LNP lose in Stretton they certainly deserve it.

  18. Adrianne, I would say Forde is good at self promotion because he works so hard and has a bit to say. He really seems to walk the walk. Shame Duncan doesn’t seem to do terribly much in the community. Forde at least works hard for the community of Stretton and doesn’t lie.

  19. Yes it is Adrienne, they were some of the original people in the area. In fact one of them still lives in the original house and same place it has always been. My grandmother is still very capable of voting! Also agrees with me regarding current political candidates and their lack of real community involvement. All the current candidates with the exception of David Forde are in it for themselves not the community. David Forde is the ONLY ONE that genuinely has the interests of the voting community underpinning his campaign.

    Rudd for PM, my reasons for leaving the parties were varied. However, the main one on all occasions has been the lies they have perpetuated. Promises made during a campaign blatantly ignored and started focusing on their own agendas. Once they got in they changed their opinions or attitudes. They forgot about the people and only thought about themselves and their pay packets.

  20. John Swift, I respect your hope that either Sadler or Forde will win on Saturday night. I hope that, at around the same time, I’ll win Lotto, an event, I beleive, of similiar likelihood. Both candidate will come a distant third and fourth on primaries. To have any chance, both will have to receive a huge preference flow. Sadler has recognised this by, it would seem, doing a preference deal with the ALP. Forde stands, in contrast, with his “Just Vote 1 strategy. If he had any political nous, he would have discussed with the Greens a preference swap to recommend to their respective supporters, to maximise their chances.

    On to policies. The ALP and LNP have at least put together a suite of policies across a range of areas, with some detail including numbers and costings. Forde, on the other hand, is primarily standing on his history of community involvement ( & good on him for that) but is very light on policy. HIs centrepiece policies are (i) reduction of public transport fares and (ii) the establishment of a website. Public transport is heavily subsidised by the taxpayer. Political promises come with responsibility. Forde needs to explain where the money would come from to reduce fares. What, for instance, is his position on parliamentary support for increased MV registration or increased payroll tax or agreement with the federal government on an increase in the GST ? He’s acknowledged, on this blog, that establishment of a website does not require “MP” to follow the name of the founder. He’s said that, over the last three years, he’s simply been too busy to make this passion a reality.

    No, the next member for Stretton will be either Pegg or Ostapovich. It’s a even money seat, in my view.

  21. The previous comment from Mark Mitchell should come with a Written & Authorised announcement as he is one of the many ALP Members who are staffing Pegg’s ALP campaign for Stretton. I am sure the people of Stretton will have their say on Saturday, I will certainly be saddened if it is one of the two drones selected by the major parties to be seat fillers, saddened but not surprised. The political duopoly that Queensland has suffered under for so long has done very little for the people of Queensland but is certainly has filled the pockets of the elected representatives and their backroom masters.

  22. Whatever happens Saturday, time will tell. But I am somewhat amused and flattered at the level of attention Adrienne and her husband Mark Mitchell are paying to me. Of course if they lived in the electorate they would have read about a range of issues I stand on. As for public transport, at least I have bothered to discuss it, both main candidates has been silent. I will add one policy area you fail to mention that is a big issue for many – asset sales / leases. Mark, asset sales was what your ALP candidate supported (strongly) when he stood at the last election – now conveniently opposes. Perhaps a candidate’s debate would have at least given you a chance to question me in public, but as you well know, all such requests were ignored. If this is really about the ALP and LNP candidates, it is again amusing and flattering that your focus is on me. Says a lot really. Good luck to all and being part of the democratic process should not be the exclusive right to a select few who belong in parties. Its very easy to be a key broad warrior and certainly has been very enjoyable being a candidate.

  23. John Swift, happy to say I’m an ALP member. My observations were on the chances of the minor candidates and the implications of their contrasting preference strategies, and on policies. Forde4Stretton, “As for public transport” , still no word on funding ? Responsibility. Good luck to all candidates and, David, best wishes with your community work over the next three years.

    Thanks to Ben Raue for establishing this website. It’s been an interesting, sometimes spirited read.

  24. I see that the ALP has back flipped on the VLAD laws, Anna wants to make them apply to all Organised Crime (with the exception of Political Parties and Unions no doubt) clearly she has not read the laws as they already do apply to all Crime Groups, this briefing sheet must have been on the back of the one letting her know that the GST was in fact 10%. A little too late to get on the Anti-crime bandwagon Anna (polling on that issue must have come in a bit late). Good luck to all honest candidates tomorrow, I am sure there must be a few of you out there.

  25. Well, Forde4Stretton, I have spoken to the ALP State Secretary and he tells me that there was NEVER a plan to Just Vote 1. So, you either lied or imagined that response. Seriously, don’t lie. And, in my book, lies apply to half truths and omissions. For someone who was such a Labor operative, you sure changed your tune very quickly. You expected to be handed a “safe” seat. Well, why should you?

  26. You were supposed to save that flagon of red for the winners prize Adrienne, I guess you could just send flowers!

  27. “John Swift”, I think you are being led astray. Clearly, you are being sent messages from David Forde, severely beaten Labor candidate for Stretton. David would prefer the LNP to win Stretton than have the candidate who thrashed him in the pre selection win. Sad but true.

  28. Ben, I would be hoping that you put Adrienne on moderation of comments as she seems to attack anyone that she doesn’t agree with.

  29. Anne, I really think you have made a grave error in mentioning Adrienne and moderation in the same sentence.

Comments are closed.