South Brisbane – Queensland 2015

ALP 4.66%

Incumbent MP
Jackie Trad, since 2012.

Geography
Central Brisbane. South Brisbane covers suburbs in on the south side of the Brisbane River in central Brisbane, specifically West End, Highgate Hill, Kangaroo Point, East Brisbane, South Brisbane, Woolloongabba, Dutton Park and parts of Greenslopes and Coorparoo.

History
The seat of South Brisbane has existed continuously since 1860. The seat has been won by the ALP at almost all elections since 1915.

The seat was once held by Premier Vince Gair from 1932 to 1960. He was expelled in 1957 and formed the Queensland Labor Party, and later served as a Democratic Labor Party Senator from 1964 to 1973.

The ALP held the seat from 1960 to 1974. The seat was held by the Liberal Party for one term from 1974 to 1977 and has been held by the ALP since 1977.

Jim Fouras won the seat in 1977, and held it until 1986, when he lost ALP preselection to Anne Warner. He later held the seat of Ashgrove from 1989 to 2006, serving as Speaker from 1990 to 1996.

Warner had previously won the seat of Kurilpa in 1983, but her original seat was abolished in 1986. She served as a minister in the Goss government until her retirement in 1995.

South Brisbane has been held by Anna Bligh since 1995. Bligh became a minister in the new Beattie government in 1998. In 2005, she became Deputy Premier, and succeeded Peter Beattie as Premier in 2007. She won another term as Premier in 2009.

In 2012, Anna Bligh led the ALP to a massive defeat, with the party losing all but seven seats. Bligh held on in South Brisbane by a 4.7% margin, after a swing to the LNP of over 10%.

Bligh resigned from her seat immediately after the election. Labor’s Jackie Trad won the following by-election by a slim 1.7% margin.

Candidates

Assessment
South Brisbane is normally a safe Labor seat, and the party should hold on comfortably in 2015.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Anna Bligh Labor 10,015 38.57 -9.85
Clem Grehan Liberal National 9,887 38.07 +10.16
Jo-Anne Bragg Greens 4,692 18.07 +0.66
Robert Wardrop Katter’s Australian 883 3.40 +3.40
Liam Flenady Independent 491 1.89 +1.89

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Anna Bligh Labor 12,977 54.66 -10.35
Clem Grehan Liberal National 10,763 45.34 +10.35

2012 by-election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Clem Grehan Liberal National 7,761 38.00 -0.10
Jackie Trad Labor 6,720 32.90 -5.60
Jo-Anne Bragg Greens 3,960 19.40 +1.30
Penny Panorea DS4SEQ 751 3.70 +3.70
Robert Wardrop Katter’s Australian 435 2.10 -1.30
Jason McKenzie Independent 349 1.70 +1.70
Penny McCreery Family First 261 1.30 +1.30
Liam Flenady Independent 189 0.90 -1.00

2012 by-election two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jackie Trad Labor 8,963 51.70 -3.00
Clem Grehan Liberal National 8,388 48.30 +3.00
Polling places in South Brisbane at the 2012 Queensland state election. East Brisbane in green, West End in yellow, Woollangabba in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in South Brisbane at the 2012 Queensland state election. East Brisbane in green, West End in yellow, Woollangabba in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in South Brisbane have been split into three areas based on key suburbs: East Brisbane, West End and Woollangabba.

At the general election, the ALP won 55.2% of the two-party-preferred vote in Woollangabba and 61% in the West End, with the LNP winning 54.2% in East Brisbane.

On a primary vote basis, Labor topped the poll in the West End and Woollangabba and the LNP topped the primary vote in East Brisbane. The Greens came third with a vote ranging from 12.9% in East Brisbane to 22.7% in the West End.

At the by-election, the ALP again won the two-party vote in the West End and Woollangabba and the LNP won in East Brisbane. The LNP also outpolled Labor on primary votes in Woollangabba, but the ALP won that area on preferences, mostly from the Greens.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

2012 election breakdown

Voter group ALP prim % LNP prim % GRN prim % ALP 2PP % Total % of votes
West End 40.94 31.56 22.74 60.97 7998 30.80
Woollangabba 40.89 38.05 15.41 55.18 4652 17.91
East Brisbane 34.09 47.45 12.89 45.83 4740 18.25
Other votes 37.57 38.98 18.01 53.57 8578 33.03

2012 by-election breakdown

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % GRN prim % ALP 2PP % Total % of votes
West End 30.37 35.40 24.85 59.25 7851 38.44
East Brisbane 47.12 28.30 14.59 42.58 4813 23.56
Woollangabba 36.44 34.42 17.91 53.10 4210 20.61
Other votes 44.34 31.81 15.57 46.48 3552 17.39
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in South Brisbane at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in South Brisbane at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Greens primary votes in South Brisbane at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Greens primary votes in South Brisbane at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes at the 2012 South Brisbane by-election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes at the 2012 South Brisbane by-election.
Greens primary votes at the 2012 South Brisbane by-election.
Greens primary votes at the 2012 South Brisbane by-election.

5 COMMENTS

  1. Jackie Trad is a rising star of the Labor Party and potential leader in the future. The percentage she is on is not really reflective on how progressive this seat is in terms demographics. Look to her to add at least a further 10% on her margin at the next state election.

  3. The political home of the ALP in Queensland this seat is certain to be retained with an increased margin. If my memory serves me right only Vince Gair (QLP later DLP) and one independent are the only others that have won this seat at an election. No one would say even with Gair that this seat has always been a labor seat and the independent I believe wanted to stand for the DLP. Andrew Jackson might be able to shed some light on that one

  4. Tony is correct VInce Gair was MLA for SOuth BRisbane. Col Bennett standing for the ALP defeated Vince in 1960. Peter Beattie speaking on Col’s life in a condolence motion said “when the boundaries of his seat were redrawn and he was not re-endorsed by the Labor
    Party. He first stood as an Independent and then, so angry was he at the decision, he even stood for the National Party, despite having fiercely attacked Premier Joh Bjelke-Petersen for some of his business dealings.He lost ALP endorsement in later years and stood as an independent.”

    Col Bennett and Vince Gair hated each others guts. At one stage this hatred reached the point of a physical fight landing Brian Kehoe QLP Vice President in hospital and Vince and Col in court with an indeterminate outcome. The Australian Journal of Politics and History reported the incident as follows “Queensland continues to display some colourful political figures. It was alleged by a former state parliamentarian Mr G. B. Kehoe, who is the deputy registrar of the Magistrates’ Court and vice-president of the QLP, that on 2 December while walking in the city with Mr Vince Gair (leader of the QLP) he was punched in the mouth (three stitches in a lip and a broken tooth) by Mr Colin Bennett, ALP MLA for South Brisbane and a leading barrister. Mr Bennett was served with a summons and said he would defend the assault charge. The police asked the Crown Law Office to conduct the case and they briefed a QC. There was a short hearing on 30 December which was adjourned.”http://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:239858/AJPH_Political_Chronicles_Qld_1964_10_1.pdf

    Col Bennett probably should have been in DLP on the basis of his policies but on the basis of his friends he was not. I am certain that he never joined the DLP and can remember having my head bitten off when I suggested that DLP should approach him to see if he would be interested in standing for us when he lost ALP endorsement.

    I think the person who bit my head off was my friend Harry Wright . but it was certainly one of the old QLP 1957 members. I think it is unlikely that Bennett and Gair would have been able to be in the same room with each other let lone the same party room.

    In those days they knew how to hate their political enemies.

    Tony is right South Brisbane is ALP territory even after Anna Bligh promised to remain as local member in 2012 if she lost the premiership South Brisbane voted for ALP’s Jackie Trad. She will improve on the 51% she got in the South Brisbane By-election. Having handed out HTV for KAP at pre-poll and election day there was a lot of hostility to having to go back to the polls 1 month after the GEneral election. MY guess is Jackie TRad will get an improvement of State margin change plus 2 or 3%.

    She has performed well in Parliament so I suspect she will claw back somne of the gREen Vote. In this seat Green Preferences will favour Jackie Trad and they are 18% of vote.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson@hotkey.net.au

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