Redcliffe – Queensland 2015

ALP 7.12%

Incumbent MP
Yvette D’Ath, since 2014. Previously Federal Member for Petrie 2007-2013.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Redcliffe covers most of the Redcliffe peninsula in Moreton Bay local council area, specifically the suburbs of Kippa-ring, Redcliffe, Woody Point, Clontarf, Margate and Scarborough, as well as Moreton Island.

History
The seat of Redcliffe has existed since the 1960 election. It was dominated by conservative parties until 1989, and has been dominated by the ALP ever since.

The seat was first won in 1960 by Jim Houghton. He was first elected as an independent and after a brief stint as a Liberal he joined the Country Party in 1963. He held the seat until his retirement in 1979.

The seat was won at the 1979 by-election by Liberal candidate Terry White. White was appointed to the ministry in 1980. He became the leader of a group of Liberal MPs critical of Joh Bjelke-Petersen and their own party’s closeness to the Nationals. In 1983 he led a Liberal rebellion which resulted in his election as Liberal leader and the dissolution of the coalition. In the ensuing election a majority of Liberals lost their seats and the Nationals won a majority in their own right.

White stepped down as Liberal leader following the disastrous 1983 election and held Redcliffe until his retirement in 1989.

Ray Hollis won Redcliffe for the ALP in 1989. He became Speaker of the Legislative Assembly in 1998 and retired in 2005. This triggered the 2005 Redcliffe by-election. At the ensuing by-election the ALP lost the seat to Liberal candidate Terry Rogers, who won with an 8.4% swing.

Rogers only held the seat for one year, and lost at the 2006 election to the ALP’s Lillian van Litsenburg. She retained the seat at the 2009 state election.

In 2012, van Litsenburg lost to the LNP’s Scott Driscoll.  Driscoll had been president of the United Retail Federation, and his political career quickly came undone due to allegations he misled the Parliament over his business interests. He was suspended from the LNP in March, and resigned in November 2013 under the threat of expulsion.

The 2014 Redcliffe by-election was won by Labor candidate Yvette D’Ath, with a 17% swing back to Labor. D’Ath had previously held the federal seat covering Redcliffe, Petrie, from 2007 until her defeat at the 2013 federal election.

Candidates

Assessment
Following on from the 2014 by-election, Labor shouldn’t have a great deal of trouble holding on to Redcliffe.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Scott Driscoll Liberal National 13,991 49.24 +14.94
Lillian van Litsenburg Labor 8,739 30.76 -12.26
Bevan Collingwood Katter’s Australian 2,484 8.74 +8.74
Noel Clothier Greens 1,912 6.73 +0.61
Kerri Dooley Family First 1,288 4.53 +1.91

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Scott Driscoll Liberal National 15,427 60.10 +15.67
Lillian van Litsenburg Labor 10,242 39.90 -15.67

2014 by-election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Yvette D’Ath Labor 12,437 44.6 +13.9
Kerri-Anne Dooley Liberal National 9,724 34.9 -14.4
Len Thomas Independent 2,837 10.2 +10.2
John Marshall Greens 1,064 3.8 -2.9
Sally Vincent Family First 675 2.4 -2.1
Talosaga McMahon Independent 345 1.2 +1.2
Liz Woollard Independent 327 1.2 +1.2
Gabriel Buckley Independent 268 1.0 +1.0
Andrew Tyrrell Independent 205 0.7 +0.7

2014 by-election two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Yvette D’Ath Labor 14,043 57.1 +17.2
Kerri-Anne Dooley Liberal National 10,540 42.9 -17.2
Polling places at the 2014 Redcliffe by-election. Kippa-Ring in green, Redcliffe in blue, Scarborough in yellow, South in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places at the 2014 Redcliffe by-election. Kippa-Ring in green, Redcliffe in blue, Scarborough in yellow, South in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Redcliffe have been split into four parts based on the key suburbs: Kippa-Ring, Redcliffe and Scarborough, with the remaining booths grouped as ‘South’.

At the 2012 election and the 2014 by-election, the LNP did significantly better in Scarborough than in the other three areas. In 2012, the LNP won 57-59% of the two-party-preferred vote in the three other areas, and 66.5% in Scarborough. In 2014, this dropped to 52% in Scarborough and 40-43% in the other three areas.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

2012 election breakdown

Voter group ALP prim % LNP prim % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
South 32.23 46.80 58.06 6314 22.22
Redcliffe 32.45 45.84 57.36 4767 16.78
Scarborough 26.05 56.68 66.51 4707 16.57
Kippa-Ring 31.37 47.83 59.11 4610 16.22
Other votes 31.00 49.63 60.07 8016 28.21

2014 by-election breakdown

Voter group ALP prim % LNP prim % ALP 2PP % Total % of votes
South 45.70 31.58 60.23 5646 20.25
Scarborough 36.57 42.17 48.10 4069 14.59
Redcliffe 44.78 32.40 59.15 3944 14.15
Kippa-Ring 45.65 32.55 57.34 3641 13.06
Other votes 46.69 35.55 58.09 10582 37.95
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Redcliffe at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Redcliffe at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Liberal National primary votes in Redcliffe at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Liberal National primary votes in Redcliffe at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in Redcliffe at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in Redcliffe at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Two-party-preferred votes at the 2014 Redcliffe by-election.
Two-party-preferred votes at the 2014 Redcliffe by-election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Len Thomas at the 2014 Redcliffe by-election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Len Thomas at the 2014 Redcliffe by-election.

6 COMMENTS

  1. This seat could surprise some with a swing of possibly 3 or 4% back to the LNP from the By-election. D’Ath’s primary vote was only 44% at the by-election which was at a time where the LNP had everything going against them and the LNP’s primary vote was 35%. Remembering Yvette D’Ath had high name recognition having been the Federal MP for six years and the LNP candidate being a relatively unknown. I’d expect Labor to hold on again but by only about 2 maybe 3% max.

  2. Usually, you’d expect a correction after a 17% swing in a by-election (like in this very seat in 2006), but this was itself a correction to a similar-sized swing in the other direction two years earlier. It’s a tricky one.

  3. Labor hold but a 2-3% swing to the LNP I’d argue for correctional sake. Particularly if we are talking about a result across the board where Labor will gain most of the seats it lost in 2012.

  4. Well, Dooley will certainly do better than she did as the Family First candidate in 2012.

    The LNP won’t be wasting their resources here though. Safe Labor retain.

  5. Of course Dooley will do better as a LNP candidate than as a FF candidate. The electorate just do not get the fact that she is the same person. FF is a front for LNOP to prevent votes going to KAP, DLP or CD parties. So far no evidence of FF stranding anywhere yet. Have LNP not yet organised.

  6. I’ve had a brief look at the historic fates of these sorts of seats that are won by the opposition in by-elections and my modelling can be seen here:

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/01/queensland-ashgrove-redcliffe-and-other.html

    Basically such seats take on a hybrid character, typically falling somewhere between their old margin and their by-election margin, but with great variation. This one could be thought of as notionally LNP by a small margin prior to the state swing, which means it should be retained by Labor, but there is more uncertainty than for “normal” seats held by the LNP by a few percent.

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