Nicklin – Queensland 2015

IND 4.88% vs LNP

Incumbent MP
Peter Wellington, since 1998.

Geography
Sunshine Coast hinterlands. Nicklin covers Nambour, Yandina, Cooroy, Bli Bli, Mapleton and Kenilworth.

History
The seat of Nicklin has existed since 1986. The seat was dominated by the National Party until 1998, and since then has been held by an independent.

The seat was first won in 1986 by Brian Austin of the National Party. Austin had held the inner-Brisbane seat of Wavell since 1977, and moved after his seat was abolished.

Austin had been elected as a Liberal at the 1977, 1980 and 1983 elections, but defected to the Nationals following the 1983 election.

Austin was forced to retire in 1989, and the seat was won by Liberal candidate Bob King. However the result was declared void, and the 1990 by-election was won by the National Party’s Neil Turner.

Turner served as Speaker of the Legislative Assembly from 1996 to 1998, and in 1998 lost his seat to independent Peter Wellington.

Wellington won in 1998 with Labor and One Nation preferences. His vote helped prop up a minority Labor government, although only for a few months until a by-election gave Peter Beattie’s government a slim majority.

Wellington won re-election in 2001, 2004, 2006, 2009 and 2012.

Wellington won Nicklin in 1998 with a 5.7% margin. This margin grew to a peak of 29.6% in 2004, but has shrunk since then. In 2009, Wellington held on by 16.3%, and this margin dropped to 4.9% in 2012.

Candidates

Assessment
Peter Wellington has held Nicklin for a long time, but has suffered a gradual decline in support since his peak a decade ago. We will have to wait to see if Wellington’s support will drop far enough to knock him out of Parliament, or if the 2012 swing was due to the large statewide swing to the LNP and will be reversed in 2015.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Peter Wellington Independent 10,725 39.14 -10.77
John Connolly Liberal National 9,829 35.87 +7.59
Luke Moore Labor 2,154 7.86 -7.89
Matthew Smith Katter’s Australian 2,075 7.57 +7.57
John Law Greens 1,937 7.07 +0.51
Cathy Turner Family First 684 2.50 +2.5

2012 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Peter Wellington Independent 13,186 54.88 -11.43
John Connolly Liberal National 10,841 45.12 +11.43
Polling places in Nicklin at the 2012 Queensland state election. East in yellow, Nambour in blue, North in green, West in red. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Nicklin at the 2012 Queensland state election. East in yellow, Nambour in blue, North in green, West in red. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Nicklin have been divided into four parts. Those polling places in the town of Nambour have been grouped together. The remaining polling places were split into three groups to the east, north and west of Nambour.

Independent MP Peter Wellington is estimated to have won the two-candidate-preferred vote in three out of four areas, with a vote ranging from 55.3% in the north to 59.2% in Nambour. The LNP won a slim 50.2% two-candidate-preferred majority in the east.

On primary votes, Wellington topped the poll in those same three areas, with a vote ranging from 35.4% in the east to 45.1% in the west. The LNP candidate’s vote ranges from 32.1% in Nambour to 40.5% in the east.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-candidate-preferred figures by polling place, so two-candidate-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group IND prim % LNP prim % IND 2CP % Total % of votes
North 38.64 35.19 55.29 6203 22.64
Nambour 42.96 32.07 59.15 5924 21.62
East 35.35 40.50 49.82 5114 18.66
West 45.09 34.75 58.05 2089 7.62
Other votes 37.57 36.52 53.81 8074 29.46
Estimated two-candidate-preferred votes in Nicklin at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-candidate-preferred votes in Nicklin at the 2012 Queensland state election.

3 COMMENTS

  1. Fun fact: this seat was possibly the only one ever in Australia to have a 2cp count featuring none of the major parties (since there were such things). In 2001, the margin was Wellington vs One Nation. The Nats came fifth with 7.8%, only ahead of the Greens. 2001 wasn’t a good year for them. 2004 wasn’t much better – Wellington’s enormous margin was against Labor.

    (Three elections in a row, all won, and a different party coming second each time? That’s also pretty unique.)

    Wellington gets mentioned around the interwebs as a possible PUP recruit every now and again. Now that the party’s falling apart, I imagine that potential bubble’s burst.

  2. The LNP would be fuming they didn’t pick this up last time now that he could be in a important position after the election amd the LNP haven’t been kind to him

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