Mount Isa – Queensland 2015

KAP 10.04% vs LNP

Incumbent MP
Rob Katter, since 2012.

Geography
North-Western Queensland. The seat of Mount Isa covers the city of Mount Isa and a large mass of northwestern Queensland, covering the entire border with the Northern Territory and stretching as far south as the South Australian border. The seat covers the local government areas of Boulia, Burke, Cloncurry, Croydon, Diamantina, Doomadgee, Etheridge, Flinders, McKinlay, Mornington, Mount Isa, Richmond and Winton, and parts of Carpentaria.

History
The seat of Mount Isa has existed since 1972. It has been predominantly won by the Labor Party.

Alex Inch won the seat for the ALP in 1972. He lost in 1974 to Country Party candidate Angelo Bertini. He held the seat until 1983, when he was defeated by Labor candidate Bill Price. Price himself was defeated in 1986 by Liberal candidate Peter Beard. Beard held the seat for one term, losing in 1989.

The ALP’s Tony McGrady won the seat in 1989. He held the seat throughout the 1990s, and became a minister in 1998. He became Speaker of the Legislative Assembly in 2005, and retired in 2006.

Labor’s Betty Kiernan held Mount Isa for two terms from 2006 to 2012.

In 2012, Kiernan lost Mount Isa to Rob Katter. Katter, the son of federal MP Bob Katter, ran for Katter’s Australian Party. Labor suffered a large 18% swing and Kiernan was relegated to third place.

Candidates

Assessment
Katter’s Australian Party is not as strong as they were in 2012, and will likely struggle to maintain their vote across Queensland. Having said that, Katter has been an incumbent for the last three years and his father and grandfather have been politically dominant in the area for many decades. At the very least, you would expect Labor to benefit from an anti-LNP swing that should push them into the top two.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Rob Katter Katter’s Australian 6,658 41.61 +41.61
Mick Pattel Liberal National 4,731 29.57 +0.08
Betty Kiernan Labor 4,264 26.65 -17.80
Colleen Williams Greens 348 2.17 -0.34

2012 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Rob Katter Katter’s Australian 7,996 60.04 +60.04
Mick Pattel Liberal National 5,322 39.96 -4.32
Polling places in Mount Isa at the 2012 Queensland state election. Mount Isa in green, North in orange, South in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Mount Isa at the 2012 Queensland state election. Mount Isa in green, North in orange, South in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Mount Isa have been divided into three parts. A majority of the seat’s population lies in the Mount Isa urban area, and the nine booths in this area have been grouped together.

Booths to the north of Mount Isa have been grouped as “North” and those to the east and south of Mount Isa have been grouped as “South”.

Katter’s Australian Party topped the primary vote in all three areas, with a vote ranging from 40.3% in Mount Isa to 47.9% in the north.

The LNP came second overall, with a vote ranging from 22.7% in Mount Isa to 34.4% in the south.

Labor came third overall, but outpolled the LNP with 34.7% in Mount Isa. Labor’s vote dropped down to 20.8% in the south. The ALP also did very badly on the special votes.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-candidate-preferred figures by polling place, so two-candidate-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group KAP prim % LNP prim % ALP prim % Total % of votes
Mount Isa 40.32 22.73 34.66 6,863 42.89
South 43.46 34.41 20.80 2,476 15.47
North 47.92 27.38 22.50 1,680 10.50
Other votes 40.35 37.31 19.91 4,982 31.14
Katter's Australian Party primary votes in Mount Isa at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter’s Australian Party primary votes in Mount Isa at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Liberal National primary votes in Mount Isa at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Liberal National primary votes in Mount Isa at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in Mount Isa at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in Mount Isa at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter's Australian Party primary votes in the Mount Isa urban area at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter’s Australian Party primary votes in the Mount Isa urban area at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Liberal National primary votes in the Mount Isa urban area at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Liberal National primary votes in the Mount Isa urban area at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in the Mount Isa urban area at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in the Mount Isa urban area at the 2012 Queensland state election.

11 COMMENTS

  1. You’d reckon the surname guarantees this will be Rob Katter’s seat for as long as he wants it to be. Perhaps until he succeeds his father in Kennedy.

  2. Bob Katter suffered a massive swing against him in the federal election. Regardless of his surname – any seat held by KAP is game on this election, really.

  3. Good point Khan, although with the decline in popularity of the LNP at both levels of government, both Katters should be able to capitalise on being “a true voice of his constituents”, as they may say, even if not in those words.

  4. Richmond Mayor John Wharton is running for the LNP – should do just as good, if not better, then Mick Pattel did last time. Still think Robbie Katter will hold on, but I think his margin will slip a bit.

  6. I recon labor could do well here but probably not enough to win. Betty was a strong candidate so a personal vote loss there but with Katter brand not as popular and the LNP being on the nose, labor could bring the 2PP to 55 but probably a hold for Robbie

  7. Its all mathamatical guess work

    Robbie is a Katter and the only reason his Dad got a scare in Kennedy was cause the oily LNP
    spread rumours a vote for Katter was a Vote for ALP which was bulldust . Rob will win Mt Isa
    as LNP is on the nose

  8. Scott Sheard (One Nation) is the underdog & I believe will give regional Aust another option who to vote for to see actual changes. Walk the talk so to speak! The current party in power have done little for struggling farmers made homeless due to droughts or mining giants moving them along. I recently read a woman with 5 kids was displaced & made homeless! Her home majorly under valued & currently seeking compensation with little support from govt! Disgusting!! Not up mention loss of jobs in mining sector, poor wait time list for early childhood placements therefore women unable to return to work or forced to send child to less then adequate supervision in child care centres. Pauline’s Hansons view on the Me Katter on her one nation fb page recently..Also it has been brought to One Nation’s attention that Bob Katter and Clive Palmer are joining forces to stop One Nation. Bob Katter has espoused many of the same policies and concerns as I and One Nation over the years, yet he has never tried to work with me or One Nation against the entrenched majors, and their policies that are destroying our way of life, culture and standard of living. WHY?

  9. Dont worry Pauline will win in Lockyer PUP KAP and ONP ought to be allies not enemies
    if they dont swap preferences with each other then thosde shmucks in LNP and ALP will get up

    The enemy is ALP and LNP not KAP ONP or PUP

  11. Once again most will vote for Bob’s son, because he is Bob’s son. leaving Mount Isa
    , again, out in the cold. Regardless of which major party gets into government, if we don’t have a representative, we will continue to get nothing. Always have to fight toe and nail to get anything if your not part of the government. We have seen it time and time and time again. Queenslanders are very slow to learn. Remember Joe?

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