LNP 5.36%
Incumbent MP
Saxon Rice, since 2012.
Geography
Inner Brisbane. Mount Coot-tha covers the inner western Brisbane suburbs of Milton, Red Hill, Paddington, Auchenflower, Bardon and Toowong.
History
Mount Coot-tha has existed since 1950. The seat was continuously held by the Liberal Party from 1950 to 1989, and has been held by the ALP ever since.
Kenneth Morris won Mount Coot-tha for the Liberal Party in 1950. He had held the seat of Enoggera since 1944, before moving to the new seat. He was elected as Liberal Party leader in 1954. He served as Deputy Premier from 1957 to 1962. In 1963 he resigned from Mount Coot-tha and won a special election to the Senate. He served as a Senator until his retirement in 1967.
Mount Coot-tha was won in 1963 by Bill Lickiss, also of the Liberal Party. He held the seat until 1986, when he moved to the new safe Liberal seat of Moggill. He held Moggill for one term before retiring in 1989.
Lyle Schuntner was elected as Liberal MP for Mount Coot-tha in 1986, but lost his seat in 1989 to Labor candidate Wendy Edmond.
Edmond went on to retain the seat relatively comfortably. The seat became a primary target for the Queensland Greens, with Drew Hutton polling strongly at the 1995 election. Edmond became a minister in the Beattie government in 1998, and retired in 2004.
In 2004 the Greens mounted another high-profile challenge in the seat, running former journalist Andrew Carroll, but the seat was won by Labor candidate Andrew Fraser.
Fraser joined the ministry in the Beattie government in 2006. When Anna Bligh became Premier in 2007, she appointed Fraser as Treasurer. He also became Deputy Premier in September 2011.
In 2012, Fraser lost his seat to LNP candidate Saxon Rice.
Candidates
- Saxon Rice (Liberal National)
- Omar Ameer (Greens)
- Steven Miles (Labor)
- Charles McAlister (Independent)
Assessment
In normal circumstances, Mount Coot-tha is a progressive seat. Prior to the 2012 election, Labor held the seat for 23 years. Mount Coot-tha is also one of the best Greens seats in Queensland, and in the past has been the focus of Greens campaigning, with the Greens candidate winning over 20% at every election since 2004. It’s likely that a swing back to Labor will give them the seat, with the Greens coming a strong third.
2012 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Saxon Rice | Liberal National | 12,142 | 47.74 | +11.48 |
| Andrew Fraser | Labor | 7,285 | 28.64 | -9.24 |
| Adam Stone | Greens | 5,269 | 20.72 | -2.36 |
| Margaret Waterman | Katter’s Australian | 739 | 2.91 | +2.91 |
2012 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Saxon Rice | Liberal National | 13,067 | 55.36 | +10.61 |
| Andrew Fraser | Labor | 10,538 | 44.64 | -10.61 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Mount Coot-tha have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.
The LNP’s primary vote ranged from 44% in the north to 49.8% in the south. The ALP came second, with 28-29% of the vote in each area.
The Greens vote was substantially higher in the north, with 23.5%, compared to 19% in central and south.
On a two-party-preferred basis, the LNP won a slim 52% majority in the north and larger 56-57% majorities in the other areas.
The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.
| Voter group | LNP prim % | ALP prim % | GRN prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total | % of votes |
| North | 44.08 | 29.40 | 23.55 | 52.32 | 6,506 | 25.58 |
| Central | 49.17 | 29.29 | 19.12 | 56.11 | 6,036 | 23.73 |
| South | 49.84 | 28.00 | 19.18 | 57.18 | 5,146 | 20.23 |
| Other votes | 48.29 | 27.92 | 20.60 | 56.08 | 7,747 | 30.46 |
What’s Andrew Fraser doing these days, at the ripe old age of 38?
keeping the return of Bligh MPs to a minimum
So why Jones, Dick, Hinchcliffe – to name just three off the top of my head – but not Fraser?
David Walsh last I read Andrew Fraser was working as a consultant with the NRL. I have also heard on the grape vine that he will take a spell from politics, but not ruling out coming back one day.
On to the seat, on paper you would have to think this seat is vulnerable. A five percent margin and this seat has a strong Labor history for the last 20 years, and you would think Labor could win it back. The LNP introduced Saxon Rice as their rising star candidate at the last Campaign Launch. But there is every chance now should could be a ‘oncer’.
Labor has chosen Steven Miles, a very highly regarded candidate inside the Labor party. Who contested 2010 election as the candidate for Ryan.
I agree they really ruined their chances of making this an LNP seat. Probably would be a sure hold if they hadn’t wasted efforts in funding Ashgrove
Anyone give the Greens a chance here?
No way. If the Greens couldn’t outpoll the ALP here at Labor’s nadir in 2012, why would they now?
I recon it’d be too hard given the election environment. Support for labor will increase and its unlikely that it will flow from the LNP to the Greens. Plus optional preferencing makes it unlikely
Labor a good chance here. Miles is a great candidate and doesnt appear to be a normal labor pollie. Saxon has fizzled a bit in the first term, not the rising star everyone thought she would be. Im tipping labor to win with a new margin of 5% and greens to poll well, but not ahead of lnp.
I agree Andrew if they wanted to keep this seat they had to get Rice the same profile Frecklington has gained but that didn’t happen
Saxon Rice had a child last year and her profile dropped as she went on maternity. She was on a similar standing to Frecklington before this.
Not at all she didn’t have a profile at all after they won. She had a profile on the campaign so the LNP could pretend to be a pro-women party and eat into labor base (as more women tend to vote labor) and because she was in a high profile race and the LNP wanted Fraser’s seat
Agree and then hot an assistant ministry gig, so starting point was the same as frecklington. Frecklington obviously has a higher profile three years later
Use all the preferences when voting not just marking the ballot with a 1. Preferential voting is much better than first past the post as it can indicate the mood of the people much more. Also, it gives the smaller parties and independents more of a chance of being elected.