Mermaid Beach – Queensland 2015

LNP 26.05%

Incumbent MP
Ray Stevens, since 2009. Previously Member for Robina 2006-2009.

Geography
Gold Coast. Mermaid Beach covers the Gold Coast suburbs of Merrimac, Mermaid Waters, Broadbeach Waters, Miami Keys, Florida Keys, Mermaid Beach and parts of Robina.

History
Mermaid Beach was created in 2009, replacing the former seat of Robina. Robina had existed from 2001 to 2009, and had always been won by the Liberal Party.

Bob Quinn was first elected as Liberal Party member for the new seat of Merrimac in 1992. Quinn served as Minister for Education in the Borbidge coalition government from 1996 to 1998.

At the 2001 election, the Liberal Party only retained three seats: those of former leader Joan Sheldon, party leader David Watson, and deputy leader Quinn, whose seat of Merrimac was renamed Robina. Quinn took over as Liberal leader, and served until 2006.

Quinn retired at the 2006 election, and was succeeded by Ray Stevens, also of the Liberal Party.

In 2009, Robina was renamed to Mermaid Beach, and Stevens was re-elected for the newly merged Liberal National Party. Stevens was re-elected in 2012.

Candidates

  • Simon Green (Family First)
  • Gary Pead (Labor)
  • Alex Caraco (Palmer United)
  • Ray Stevens (Liberal National)
  • Helen Wainwright (Greens)

Assessment
Mermaid Beach is a very safe LNP seat.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Ray Stevens Liberal National 17,856 65.13 +10.69
Rachel Paterson Labor 5,064 18.47 -15.02
Jenny Boddy Greens 2,043 7.45 +0.76
Ken Law Katter’s Australian 1,664 6.07 +6.07
Ben Donovan Family First 788 2.87 +2.87

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Ray Stevens Liberal National 18,764 76.05 +15.24
Rachel Paterson Labor 5,910 23.95 -15.24
Polling places in Mermaid Beach at the 2012 Queensland state election. East in green, North in blue, South in red. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Mermaid Beach at the 2012 Queensland state election. East in green, North in blue, South in red. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Mermaid Beach have been split into three parts: east, north and south.

The Liberal National Party won a large majority of the primary vote, and a larger majority of the two-party-preferred vote.

The LNP primary vote ranged from 62% in the east to 68.6% in the north. The two-party vote ranged from 74.4% in the east to 79.2% in the north.

The Labor primary vote ranged from 16.1% in the north to 19.5% in the south.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
North 68.60 16.12 79.18 7,303 26.64
South 64.48 19.49 74.99 6,552 23.90
East 61.96 18.80 74.38 4,861 17.73
Other votes 64.48 19.50 75.13 8,699 31.73
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Mermaid Beach at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Mermaid Beach at the 2012 Queensland state election.

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