Mackay – Queensland 2015

ALP 0.53%

Incumbent MP
Tim Mulherin, since 1995.

Geography
North Queensland. Mackay covers the central suburbs of the city of Mackay from Mackay Airport to Slade Point.

History
The seat of Mackay has existed continuously since 1878. The seat has been held by Labor MPs, since 1915, although one MP became an independent for a period of five years in the 1970s.

William Forgan Smith held the seat for the ALP from 1915 to 1942. He served as Premier of Queensland from 1932 to 1942. Fred Graham held the seat from 1943 to 1969.

Ed Casey won Labor preselection in 1969. In 1972 he lost preselection, but won re-election as an independent, continuing as an independent until 1977 when he was re-admitted to the ALP caucus.

Casey served as leader of the ALP from 1978 to 1982, and continued to serve as Labor Member for Mackay until his retirement in 1995.

Tim Mulherin won Mackay in 1995. Mulherin has held Mackay for seven terms, and served as a minister from 2005 to 2012.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Tim Mulherin is not running for re-election.

  • Jonathon Dykyj (Greens)
  • Julie Boyd (Independent)
  • Lindsay Temple (Family First)
  • Deon Attard (Liberal National)
  • Julieanne Gilbert (Labor)

Assessment
Mackay is normally a safe Labor seat. While Labor came very close to losing in 2012, a general pro-Labor swing should ensure Labor retains this seat.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tim Mulherin Labor 9,920 38.58 -22.78
John Kerslake Liberal National 9,499 36.94 +6.76
Lindsay Temple Katter’s Australian 4,870 18.94 +18.94
Luke Mathews Greens 1,425 5.54 -2.92

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tim Mulherin Labor 11,317 50.53 -16.19
John Kerslake Liberal National 11,081 49.47 +16.19
Polling places in Mackay at the 2012 Queensland state election. North in blue, South in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Mackay at the 2012 Queensland state election. North in blue, South in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Mackay have been split into two parts: north and south.

The Labor primary vote was similar in both – 38.3% in the north and 38.8% in the south.

The LNP primary vote was 38% in the south and 36% in the north.

Katter’s Australian Party performed slightly better in the north with 20.1% compared to 17.6% in the south.

On a two-party-preferred basis, the ALP won 50.05% in the south and 50.8% in the north.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group ALP prim % LNP prim % KAP prim % ALP 2PP % Total % of votes
North 38.25 36.03 20.14 50.83 10,125 39.38
South 38.78 38.09 17.61 50.05 8,545 33.23
Other votes 38.80 36.85 18.82 50.70 7,044 27.39
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Mackay at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Mackay at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter's Australian Party primary votes in Mackay at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter’s Australian Party primary votes in Mackay at the 2012 Queensland state election.

 

9 COMMENTS

  1. While I actually think it’s time for Tim to retire, he will have absolutely no trouble retaining this given he didn’t lose in 2012. Expect double digit swing to Labor.

  2. Whilst the retirement of Tim Mulherin does now change the goal post in this contest, Mackay, like everywhere else saw an abnormally high LNP vote and for that reason, the ALP can’t lost the seat.

  3. Queensland Observer, I don’t think Julie will have much worry, Labor aren’t in any danger in the seats they hold.

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