Logan – Queensland 2015

LNP 4.80%

Incumbent MP
Michael Pucci, since 2012.

Geography
South-East Queensland. The seat of Logan covers a series of suburbs in Logan City, specifically Browns Plains, Regents Park, Heritage Park, Park Ridge, Munruben and Logan Village.

History
The seat of Logan was first created in 1873. It was abolished in 1950, restored in 1960, abolished again in 1972, and restored finally in 1986. It has been held by ALP members since 1969.

When Logan was restored in 1986, Wayne Goss won the seat for the ALP. He had won the seat of Salisbury in 1983.

Goss became Leader of the Opposition in 1988 and in 1989 led the ALP to victory, becoming Premier of Queensland.

He was re-elected in 1992 and won another term by a slim margin in 1995. The ALP won a one-seat majority at the 1995 election, and lost this majority when the result in Mundingburra was overturned and the Liberal Party won the ensuing by-election in 1996. This resulted in the Goss government losing power.

Goss resigned as ALP leader and returned to the backbench. He retired in 1998.

John Mickel won Logan in 1998. He was appointed to the ministry in 2004 and served as a minister until 2009. He served as Speaker of the Legislative Assembly from 2009 until his retirement in 2012.

In 2012, Liberal National Party candidate Michael Pucci defeated Labor candidate Linus Power with an 18.7% swing.

Candidates

Assessment
Logan has traditionally been a safe Labor seat, and was only won by the LNP by a slim margin after a very large swing. The seat should return to the Labor fold in 2015.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Michael Pucci Liberal National 10,388 41.01 +9.34
Linus Power Labor 8,431 33.29 -23.44
Tony Karamatic Katter’s Australian 3,196 12.62 +12.62
Mike Kelly Independent 1,559 6.16 +6.16
Julian Hinton Greens 1,362 5.38 -3.12
Troy Aggett One Nation 392 1.55 +1.55

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Michael Pucci Liberal National 11,801 54.80 +18.73
Linus Power Labor 9,732 45.20 -18.73
Polling places in Logan at the 2012 Queensland state election. North in blue, South in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Logan at the 2012 Queensland state election. North in blue, South in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Logan have been split into two parts: north and south.

The Liberal National Party topped the primary vote in both areas, with 39.2% in the north and 42.7% in the south.

Labor was only just behind the LNP in the north, with 37.3%, and polled 28.9% in the south. Katter’s Australian Party’s primary vote was 15% in the south and 11.5% in the north.

The Liberal National Party won 51.4% of the two-party-preferred vote in the north and 58.6% in the south.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % KAP prim % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
North 39.17 37.27 11.54 51.36 12,025 47.48
South 42.73 28.91 15.05 58.63 7,377 29.13
Other votes 42.63 30.64 11.78 57.31 5,926 23.40
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Logan at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Logan at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter's Australian Party primary votes in Logan at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter’s Australian Party primary votes in Logan at the 2012 Queensland state election.

5 COMMENTS

  1. Hard to see the LNP holding on here, very strong Labor candidate who was very much expected to win in 2012. Pucci has been a decent MP in his first term and built himself up some name recognition, but this is a traditionally safe Labor Electorate and should easily go back to them.

  2. People often confuse Logan with Woodridge or Waterford as a ‘natural’ labor seat. The seat of Logan is a lot more rural and after successive redistributions had made the seat far more marginal before the last election. Cuts to local services may hurt the sitting member but I can’t see a massive swing happening here. My guess is Labor by 2%.

  3. Interestimg comment PRP. Have not seen Linus Power anywhere over the last three years, no idea who he is. Pucci, by contrast has been an extremely involved and har working local member- have to admit he grated at first, but have to give him credit where its due. He may surprise…

  4. Pucci has done the work, but will be a casualty of the state swing. Its hard for first termers to withstand big state swings. I reckon labor with a new margin of 5%.

  5. Can anyone tell me anything about the independents standing for Logan. Can’t find much info about either of them

Comments are closed.