Lockyer – Queensland 2015

LNP 14.87% vs KAP

Incumbent MP
Ian Rickuss, since 2004.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Lockyer covers rural areas between Toowoomba and Ipswich. The seat covers the Lockyer Valley local government area and the neighbouring council areas of Ipswich, Logan and Scenic Rim. The seat covers the towns of Grandchester, Laidley, Gatton and Helidon.

History
The seat of Lockyer first existed from 1888 to 1932, and has existed continuously since 1950. The modern seat has never been held by the Labor Party.

The seat was held from 1950 to 1980 by Liberal Party members, and was won in 1980 by the National Party’s Tony Fitzgerald.

Fitzgerald held the seat throughout the 1980s and 1990s, but in 1998 lost to One Nation’s Peter Prenzler.

Prenzler left One Nation in 1999 to found the City Country Alliance. In 2001, Prenzler lost to the new One Nation candidate, Bill Flynn.

Flynn became leader of One Nation in the Queensland Parliament following the 2001 election, and held the seat for one term before losing in 2004.

The seat has been held since 2004 by Ian Rickuss, who held the seat first for the National Party and for the LNP since the 2008 merger.

Candidates

Assessment
Lockyer is a very conservative seat, and the LNP should be able to hold on comfortably in 2015.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Ian Rickuss Liberal National 14,348 52.01 -1.55
David Neuendorf Katter’s Australian 6,571 23.82 +23.82
James Wilson Labor 4,876 17.68 -19.94
Clare Rudkin Greens 1,790 6.49 -2.33

2012 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Ian Rickuss Liberal National 15,387 64.87 +7.26
David Neuendorf Katter’s Australian 8,334 35.13 +35.13
Polling places in Lockyer at the 2012 Queensland state election. Central in blue, East in orange, West in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Lockyer at the 2012 Queensland state election. Central in blue, East in orange, West in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Lockyer have been divided into three parts: central, east and west.

The electorate of Lockyer covers the entirety of the Lockyer Valley council area, and this council area contains a majority of the seat’s population and land area. Booths in that council area have been split into “central” and “west”. Those booths in the Ipswich, Logan and Scenic Rim council areas have been grouped as “east”.

The Liberal National Party won a majority of the primary vote, ranging from 50.4% in central to 52.7% in the west. On a two-candidate-preferred basis, the LNP’s vote ranged from 62.6% in the central and west to 66.6% in the east.

Katter’s Australian Party came second, with a vote ranging from 20.2% in the east to 28.3% in the west. Labor came third, with a vote ranging from 13% in the west to 21.9% in the east. KAP came second in central and west, while Labor came second in the east.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-candidate-preferred figures by polling place, so two-candidate-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % KAP prim % ALP prim % LNP 2CP % Total % of votes
Central 50.43 26.18 17.43 62.55 10,158 36.82
East 51.19 20.19 21.93 66.64 6,365 23.07
West 52.67 28.29 12.97 62.56 4,118 14.93
Other votes 54.69 21.05 16.92 68.09 6,944 25.17
Estimated two-candidate-preferred votes in Lockyer at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-candidate-preferred votes in Lockyer at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in Lockyer at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in Lockyer at the 2012 Queensland state election.

37 COMMENTS

  1. Pauline Hanson should do well here, since the seat has a history of crazy far-right parties/candidates doing well. Could very well finish second but won’t win the seat.

  2. KAP announced that DAvid NEuendorf had been endorsed as KAP Candidate in Locker over six months ago.

    Ian RIckuss is in Parliament only because he got Green & ALP prefernces in 2012

    The reason that Pauline Hanson is standing in Locker rather than her own backyard is because Katter’s Australian Party did so well in this electortate in 2012. She has done LNP a great favour in standing in this seart and dividing the minor party vote.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson@hotkey.net.au

  3. Wrong. Rickuss polled 52% of the first preference vote in 2012 and didn’t need anybody’s preferences to be elected. Neuendorf polled 23.8%.

  4. If Pauline Hanson wins this seat she will be a Neville Noboddy in parliament. Labor and LNP will just laugh at her. In instance of her holding balance of power though my advice would be to hire a mini van and go live in another state for a few years. I would happily join.

  5. Ian Rickuss will no doubtably gain a massive swing against him at this election. This may very well be the reason Pauline Hanson chose Lockyer for her return to Queensland. It is also one of the few chances the KAP (David Neuendorf) have to either gain or hold their vote from the last election. If Rickuss is vunerable then preference deals must be done. The KAP , Pauline Hanson and the ALP are the options and it will be interesting to see if any a deal can be done to bring down an obvious very unpopular sitting member. A host of conservative minors who normally past their preferences to the LNP have threatened that unless the LNP fill their ticket then they wont past preferences either. This will be a good one to watch. I am not sure who will be the beneficiary but look for a 12 or greater % swing against the LNP.

  6. I’ve said it before and I will say it again until poll day – god help us Queenslanders if the people of Lockyer vote in Pauline and she holds balance of power. As a Labor man, I’d even rather an LNP government than any sort of minority gov where she holds the balance.

  7. Better Start praying then because Pauline will just about win and this is why

    a) LNP is well on the nose and people want an alternative and thats not ALP who they would
    not pee on if they were on fire in Lockyer

    b) What better candidate for the disaffected voter than Pauline

    c) People are over that media rubbish about One Nation which is spin created for
    major parties. If she was a rascists she would not have employed an Asian manager
    for her Fish Shop

    d) Much of Paulines polices have been implemented very successfully by the Libs anyway
    and nobody said boo about that did they

    e) Current on line polling suggests 47% for Pauline and she will get most of the 14%
    preferences from KAP . So even if the ALP and LNP swap with each other she should
    get over the line

    f) People are slowly getting sick of voting for Tweedle Dumb and Tweedle Dumber
    if you buy a car from a dodgy used car dealer and are disatisfied you would not go
    and buy another there would you. Why vote for the same crooks then

    g) The simple method is put Labor and Liberal last then see whats left over

  8. Dave, that 47% is from Daily Mercury… online polls are notorious for vastly overrating niche candidates with fervent followings. Same reason as why you have KAP getting as much support as Labor or LNP at under 20%, when Labor+LNP represented 75% of the vote at the last election.

    The reason why Pauline Hanson isn’t going to win is that she’s damaged goods. Even if they would have supported One Nation (and I really hope they wouldn’t have, anyway), Hanson is now very much disliked by a lot of people. One Nation’s heyday has come and gone, it’s Palmer United now that the disaffected voters will flock to, with a secondary group going to KAP.

    And because of the situation over the last three years, I find it unlikely that there are as many completely disaffected voters – most “disaffected voters” are just against LNP right now, because Labor hasn’t really had any major visibility, except on things where the vast majority agree.

  9. The only election Hanson ever won was when she had the words “Liberal Party” printed next to her name. She’s been a unsuccessful candidate numerous times since then, including the PR contests of the Queensland Senate and NSW Legislative Council.

    It would be very surprising if the Hanson zombie suddenly sprung up in 2015 after 17 and a half years in the political grave.

  10. Go through all of those defeats and see LIBS giving preference to ALP and votes disappearing and yet she has came very close on several occassions one one occassion she just got pipped by the shooters party in NSW

    Pauline is not yet spent and if she dosnt get in the guy from KAP may just do so

    LNP is on the nose but Lockyer voters will not vote ALP

    You need to factor in even without KAP and Pauline factor there will be a swing of at least 15% against the LNP anyway across the state

    Then ad to that the protest vote towards KAP and Pauline

    My prediction Campbell to lose his seat to Miss Jones from ALP and LNP to win 44-39 seats
    1 x ONP (Pauline) 3 Independents 2 KAP (MT ISA and DALRYMPLE). Lets see how close I get to the result shall we

    Think Pauline will scape home here No by much because Rickus will give his preferences to the ALP which in itself is a capital crime That in itself will cause protest vote

    Sitting MP cant expect to keep his 20% margin this time the voters will take a cricket bat to him

    The trouble with voters is they vote for one bunch of crooks or another Tweedle Dumb or Tweedle Dumber

    REJECT ANY POLLY WHO DOES NOT REPRESENT THE VOTERS
    FOREVER

    That means Labor and Liberal Last and see see whats left over

  11. Ben, I recall seeing that Labor came closeish to winning this seat in one of the Beattie landslides – which is pretty astonishing. The Lockyer valley has been one of the most conservative areas in Qld for decades. Gordon Chalk, a former Liberal Deputy Premier (and Premier for one week) was the liberal member for Toowoomba East and then Lockyer. When I lived in the western suburbs of Brisbane, I was told that (for at least some time) he lived Indooroopilly while representing Lockyer.

  12. thats a disgrace living in indoorapilly and representing lockyer

    silly voters should have dumped him

    had that in sydney with alp mp representing cabramatta lived in north sydney few years ago
    thats disgusting

  13. Dave
    I know that when Gordon Chalk was MLA for Lockyer he used to give QLP/ DLP MLA LEs Diplock a lift of part of way home after late night sittings. A lift from George ST to Indooroopilly would not be of great use on a journey Brisbane to Dalby.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson@hotkey.net.au

  14. there will be a swing against the lnp here probably in excess of 10% probably increase in Alp vote of a similar amt. with optional preferences and kap, pup and the greens also in the sums
    now with pauline Hanson in the mix…… who knows? the winner could be on 30% of the vote

  15. Pauline is currently on 48% in the Polls, Rickiss and Lees on 18% KAP on 11% Can someone point them towards Centrelink office Pauline is paying $5 on Sportsbet Very high odds I would think The value bet of the year I think Go you good thing Pauline and dont let the Bastards grind you down

  16. If Pauline wins I will just laugh at the people of Lockyer who will get nothing for the next 3 years, except maybe a few redneck grabs about Muslims and Aboriginals (even though virtually none of those 2 groups live in that electorate) that the media will love. In saying that though, their LNP member is a dud but I’ve no time for Pauline either. Another independent would be ok though. I’m in no way anti minor parties, just anti her.

  17. On a side note you could be right about her chances Dave Smith. I remember Clive Palmer was at similar odds and written off in the federal election yet he won.

  18. Labor on how to vote cards are not preferencing Pauline Hanson at all. They have said put the LNP last, but leave the One Nation box blank.

  19. Preferencing last LNP last places LNP above Hanson. But in this seat ALP preferences may be important.

  20. Pauline Hanson should have got in. it just shows that so many are still ignorant about what is going on in the world and what has to be stopped before we end up like France and the UK. The majors are pathetic when it comes to reality.

  21. I’d have given Pauline Hanson a chance if there’d been no KAP and PUP candidates.
    She really needed to be the only alternative to Labor and the LNP to have a chance, given that Labor was never going to do well here. But the KAP and PUP candidates split the vote that might well have gone to her, and Ian Rickuss looks to have made it home.
    Because voters in Queensland state elections aren’t required to direct preferences, they become close to first-past-the-post contests. And if forces from one side of the political spectrum can’t unite behind a single candidate in those circumstances, a candidate from another side of the spectrum comes through to win.
    People will hate me for saying this, but I see similarities in this result to some first-past-the-past presidential elections in other countries. Remember the Egyptian secularists splitting and enabling an Islamist to win? Remember the Iranian conservatives splitting and enabling a moderate to win? And in the US, remember the Democrats winning when Ross Perot divided the Republican vote and George W Bush winning when Ralph Nader divided the Democratic vote? I reckon that the KAP and PUP candidates have cost Hanson the outside chance of an upset.

  22. Radio 94.9 anounced today that ALP gave their Preferences to the LNP in Lockyer. If this is true I would have to say I am discusted that a major party would be allowed to give their HUge amount of prefences to their opposing Major party just so an independant party doesn`t get the seat. Pauline Hanson Had a really great voter backing and a real chance . This is Australia and Once again I Find it shamefull behavious that I call the both major Parties in Lockyer Lowlifes. To stoop so low as to steal that many votes and steal is what they did (if this is true) How is this allowed by the constitution? When so very many voters vote in a way that the call is enjoyable balanced It seems like theft. How can Ian Rickuss or any Leader celebrate a win under these circumstances. Upset ? Yes, I am upset but because Pauline Hansen lost but as once again I see Our Aussie Government take our choices and do what ever the Heck they want.

  23. Aussie Girl that is the most bizarre argument I’ve heard on this. The ALP advocated to number every square so why on earth would they put some extreme racist nut job ahead of a centre right party. They preference based on ideology and it would make no sense to help elect and extreme right one nation MP (not at all an independent) ahead of an LNP candidate. Its called democracy, the voters decide where they allocate preference and rejected Hanson. Get over it, nobody wanted that extremist in the parliament and if you don’t like it too bad because clearly the majority of Lockyer were against her.

  24. Earth to Aussie Girl; it’s the voters themselves who actually cast the vote. The parties may suggest their preferences but no one is under any compulsion to follow them …… under Qld voting laws they need only indicate 1 for their preferred candidate and a good percentage of voters do that. Perhaps the voters of Lockyer have noticed Pauline has been running for office wherever she can (hello NSW Senate, NSW Upper House) and made up their mind that it’s more about ‘Pauline’ than serving them and the interests of their electorate.

  25. I stood for One Nation in Western Australia 3 times. After that I watched the so called normal parties (LNP & Labor) steal all of Pauline’s policies.
    So I ask Mr Observer, how do you place Pauline as an extremist?
    I find you people who spew spin out without a single clue what you are talking about disrespectful and 3 dollars short of a 5 dollar bill!
    By the way, Pauline is in front. How do you like them apples people?
    You go Pauline and get them Girlie. 😉

  26. I watched the channel 7 election live on Saturday night until late. And they had a panel of people from Katter, LNP and ALP parties. When the subject came up about Lock yer, the ALP people were asked who their preferential votes would go to. They instantly replied that ALP usually gives their votes to LNP (Their opposition). It is so wrong. Which means that the people don’t get a say at all. There should be no preferential votes at all. Should be one vote for one person and that is it.

  27. It is one vote for one person. Your vote only passes on when your original candidate is knocked out, so you only ever get to vote for one candidate at a time.

    Also the ALP can only advise – real voters have to be the ones to fill out the preferences.

  28. Three times Gavin? Why not a few more? Than you will have lost as many times as Pauline. She gets money everytime she fails though so I guess I gotta envy that.

  29. If the grubs from ALP and LNP did not gang up on her with preference deals with each she would have won most of those elections. I hope Pauline wins

    LNP and ALP never represent the electorate an have not done so for years
    Why do people vote for those deadbeats in the first place they are destroying our Country

    We need voters recall here so we can just recall a pollie before the next election and hold them to task Dancing on the world stage and smooshing up to big business is not in the voters best interest

    VALE TOM UREN A real Labor Man not like this rubbish they have now days

  30. Because my business started to consume too much of my time Mr Rudd for PM.

    Unlike you who sits for keyboard parliament under the moniker of Rudd for PM, I did the good old Aussie thing.

    “I had a go mate”!

    Now if Pauline can just hold on.

  31. I have never heard a labor or liberal MP agree with Pauline on being ‘swamped by Asians, or refusing to sell their house to a muslim. BTW Pauline is now behind, who do you like them apples.

    Dave Smith thats absolute crap, why would the ALP or LNP want her in parliament. She’s not some independent she has an agenda to put an end to multiculturalism in Australia which is disgraceful so why should they help her get elected. She doesn’t even really care about her electorate shes a career politician, how many times has she run now? In both QLD and NSW? Shes only running to promote her views on getting rid of multiculturalism so thats why its ideal that the LNP and ALP preference against her

Comments are closed.