LNP 6.39%
Incumbent MP
Bruce Young, since 2012.
Geography
North Queensland. Keppel covers regional areas along the coast to the north of Rockhampton, including Yeppoon, northern suburbs of Rockhampton, and the Keppel islands.
History
Keppel was first contested at the 1992 election. A former seat with the same name had existed from 1912 to 1960. The current incarnation was held by the National Party until 2004 and has been held by the ALP since 2004.
The seat was first won in 1992 by National Party MP Vince Lester. He had previously held the seats of Belyando and Peak Downs, having first been elected in 1974. Lester had served as a minister in the National Party government from 1983 until 1989.
Lester retired in 2004, and Keppel was won by ALP candidate Paul Hoolihan. Hoolihan won re-election in 2006 and 2009.
In 2012, Hoolihan was defeated by LNP candidate Bruce Young.
Candidates
- Brittany Lauga (Labor)
- Bruce Young (Liberal National)
- Brandon Jones (Greens)
- Bruce Diamond (Independent)
- Warren Purnell (Palmer United)
Assessment
Keppel is a typical marginal seat, with Labor having held the seat from 2004 to 2012, and before that the Nationals. In recent years, Keppel was usually held by relatively slim margins, and will likely revert to type in 2015.
2012 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Bruce Young | Liberal National | 13,143 | 44.25 | +4.86 |
| Paul Hoolihan | Labor | 9,935 | 33.45 | -19.13 |
| Luke Hargreaves | Katter’s Australian | 4,722 | 15.90 | +15.9 |
| Paul Bambrick | Greens | 1,905 | 6.41 | -1.62 |
2012 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Bruce Young | Liberal National | 14,757 | 56.39 | +14.01 |
| Paul Hoolihan | Labor | 11,411 | 43.61 | -14.01 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Keppel have been split into three parts. Those booths in the Rockhampton urban area have been grouped together. Those in the Livingstone council area have been split into central and north.
The LNP topped the poll in all areas, ranging from 40.4% in Rockhampton to 49% in the north.
The ALP’s vote ranged from 28.5% in the north to 37.9% in Rockhampton, and Katter’s Australian Party came third with a vote ranging from 14.5% in the north to 19.7% in central.
On the estimated two-party-preferred vote, the LNP majority ranges from a slim 51.8% in Rockhampton to 61.6% in the north.
The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.
| Voter group | LNP prim % | ALP prim % | KAP prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total | % of votes |
| Rockhampton | 40.37 | 37.93 | 16.50 | 51.81 | 10,472 | 35.25 |
| North | 48.99 | 28.51 | 14.49 | 61.63 | 7,289 | 24.54 |
| Central | 42.26 | 32.08 | 19.74 | 56.46 | 3,410 | 11.48 |
| Other votes | 45.73 | 32.70 | 14.82 | 57.53 | 8,534 | 28.73 |
Another seat I’m not sure on who will win, the margin doesn’t seem strong enough for the LNP to hold on, but this area has tended to lean more LNP’s way than Labor’s in history. Impressive young Labor candidate here but doubt she would strong name recognition. Hard to say whether Young has entrenched himself in this seat yet. The LNP having won Capricornia Federally and with Senator Canavan’s Office being in Rockhampton would only stand to help build the LNP profile in this seat. Should be interesting.
Yeah LNP hold. Funny you mentioned Capricornia going to LNP in federal eledction. The same thing happened in 96 and Labor won it back in 98. I don’t think Labor will have trouble winning that back at next federal election. Carbon tax killed them this time.
Jan McLucus’ office is also based in Rockhampton so there is still a labor presence. I think this seat will probably swing uniform so probably a seat labor should be exctied about. Capricornia had a retiring MP and anti-labor vibe in the state so not a great indicator
I’m not sure, remember the seat was held by the Nationals in the huge landslide loss in 2001. But after Nationals MP Vince Lester retired before 2004 state election, Labor won Keppel despite the state vote dropping. It was Labors only gain in the 2004 election. This seat could still be up for grabs with a 6% margin- it was largely held by the Nationals for 12 years because Vince Lester was a very popular MP- does not mean it’s a Nationals party stronghold that can’t be toppled.
Sportsbet have Labor favourites here. Surely that can’t be right? Has anyone seen any polling here?
Surprise Labor lost this in 1992 as it included much of former Labor stronghold of Rockhampton North, Vince Lester obviously a great candidate (reminds me of the Labor MP who has amazingly held Albany in WA) unless Bruce Young is equally charismatic Labor should win this.
The independent Bruce Diamond was a local media personality who contested Rockhampton at the last election and Capricornia at the federal election. He has a Facebook page here
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Bruce-Diamond-for-Keppel/204447129588423
It amazes me Labor are favorites here and Toowoomba North on Sportsbet. There’s no way Labor has gotten themselves into a position to win this. They will win Keppel when they’re going to government. That’s not now. I swear, there is a bunch of roosters running Sportsbet right now.
No doubt then R4PM will be collecting some serious coin from Sportsbet once the returns are in.
with a 14% swing there is a 5% margin………. Mr Lester had a big personal vote which is lost now to the conservatives. I expect that Labor are the favorites here
Ha ha @ David Walsh – I’ll pay that call 🙂 I do like the odd gamble on the footy, my record is better than average. However, I have a policy of never betting against my team and in this case, I’m a Labor voter so I can’t bet against them. However, my advice is there are some seats where LNP are huge outsiders, like Cairns and Brisbane Central where some good coin could be made.
@Mick a 14 percent swing is a huge call for a CQ seat which the Conservatives were even able to hold druing the high point of Labor in Qld (2001) and the fact Labor are losing all momentum in this campaign. I’d say an inevitable swing to Labor but less than 10 percent.
there was a marginal seat near Rockhampton called Broadsound I think, labor won it in 1989 with Goss gaining Govt. The redistribution after that abolished peak downs and Broadsound became Keppel.. Mr Lester was now in the contest … he won and held the seat till his retirement.
The Margin here is almost 6% based on 2012 election result……… Alp win is highly possible\
A definite win for Labor. ALP candidate is young, fresh and energetic. The sitting LNP candidate, despite his name, is anything but. Labor’s Brittany Lauga has been running a strong grassroots based campaign and this will pay off on election night. FYI, 1992 redistribution saw former Broadsound electorate (which included the coastal and rural hinterland areas of Keppel) abolished as was Lester’s old seat. Broadsound Labor MP, Jim Pearce, stood for the new mining seat of Fitzroy and Lester ran for Keppel. Both won and were very successful, holding their seats until retirement because they were grassroots campaigners in their electorates.
This will be a great seat to watch.
I think a labor win here is doable, because if you look at 2012, the LNP primary swing was only 4%. Most of Labors losses went to KAP. If Labor focuses on getting those voters back, they’ll win.
I also actually went to uni with Brittary Lauga and I know she will make a great local member.
I don’t know a lot about her but I subscribe to most Labor candidates and she has been one of the more active of any in the regional Qld area. I hope she wins.
Labour will pick this one up easily. Almost half the numbers in the electorate are in Rockhampton, lots of money flowing to Livingstone but not appearing in the Rockhampton part of the electorate. Still a few favours for Rockhampton to settle following de-amalgamation.
Livingstone was looking to replace its Mayor based on the last Local Council election results to clear the air after the split. LNP ran two candidates just to confuse everyone. And for some reason Bruce Young is campaigning on the back of his strong partnership with the Mayor who delivered de-amalgamation.
The Labour candidate has been working on a grass-roots campaign for some time and will get the result.