LNP 2.45%
Incumbent MP
Ian Kaye, since 2012.
Geography
South-East Brisbane. Greenslopes covers the Brisbane suburbs of Holland Park and Holland Park West, and parts of Greenslopes, Coorparoo, Camp Hill, Mount Gravatt and Mount Gravatt East.
History
The seat of Greenslopes has existed since 1960. In that time the seat has always been won by a party of government.
The seat was won in 1960 by Liberal candidate Keith Hooper. He had previously held the seat of Buranda since 1957. He held Greenslopes until his death in 1977.
In 1977 the seat was won by Bill Hewitt. He had previously held the seat of Chatsworth for the Liberals since 1966. He was defeated in Greenslopes in 1983 by National Party candidate Leisha Harvey.
Harvey became a minister in the Ahern government in 1987. In 1989 she lost her seat to Labor candidate Gary Fenlon.
Fenlon was re-elected in 1992 before losing to Liberal candidate Ted Radke in 1995. Fenlon won the seat back off Radke in 1998. He then went on to be re-elected repeatedly in 2001, 2004 and 2006.
In 2009, Fenlon retired and was succeeded by Cameron Dick. The new member for Greenslopes was immediately promoted to cabinet and served first as Attorney-General and then as Minister for Education in the Bligh government.
In 2012, Cameron Dick was defeated by LNP candidate Ian Kaye.
Candidates
- Ian Kaye (Liberal National)
- Matthew Darragh (Family First)
- Joseph Kelly (Labor)
- Darren Ellis (Greens)
Assessment
Greenslopes was considered a reasonably safe Labor seat prior to the 2012 election, and should return to Labor in 2015.
2012 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ian Kaye | Liberal National | 13,076 | 47.87 | +10.06 |
| Cameron Dick | Labor | 10,713 | 39.22 | -7.06 |
| Emma-Kate Rose | Greens | 3,529 | 12.92 | +0.35 |
2012 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ian Kaye | Liberal National | 13,590 | 52.45 | +9.39 |
| Cameron Dick | Labor | 12,318 | 47.55 | -9.39 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Greenslopes have been split into three parts: north, south and central.
The Liberal National Party topped the primary vote in the north and central with around 49% of the primary vote. In those areas, Labor polled around 38-39% of the primary vote.
In the south, Labor narrowly outpolled the LNP – 43.8% – 43.7%.
On a two-party-preferred basis, the LNP won the north (54.3%) and the centre (53.7%) and Labor won 52.1% in the south.
The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.
| Voter group | LNP prim % | ALP prim % | GRN prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total | % of votes |
| North | 49.81 | 37.90 | 12.29 | 54.27 | 7,792 | 28.52 |
| South | 43.66 | 43.81 | 12.54 | 47.88 | 6,581 | 24.09 |
| Central | 49.37 | 38.74 | 11.89 | 53.67 | 5,248 | 19.21 |
| Other votes | 48.47 | 36.95 | 14.58 | 53.73 | 7,697 | 28.18 |
I think this is one of the more interesting seats in this election. The margin is small suggesting but it was only won because of the size of the swing and should easily offended back to labor. The truth is more complicated as the seat really should be safer for the lnp. Dick was a strong incumbent and high profile. I think that buffered labor from a bigger swing here and I would not be surprised to see this seat as one of the smallest swings to labor. I expect labor to win, but I wonder by how much and whether long term this ends up a lnp seat more often then not.
Apologies for typos and stray words, on a tablet that is autocorrecting
Greenslopes is the Eden-Monaro of Qld, even flipping from Lib to Nat when the coalition broke up and the Nats had two terms of majority govt. Apart from a gap between the 1995 election and the Mundingburra by-election, that’s a 55 year streak. No doubt that’ll continue, at least for now.
Greenslopes in the last 16 years has had labor margins well above the state 2PP so its not really a bellwether. Cameron Dick was a new MP in 09 resulting in a cut in his margin and his popularity and sophomore surge probably saved the swing here. I think labor gain but probably only a 5% swing
I think Labor win IF the swings to Labor we are thinking are going to occur.
The fact that Dick is contesting Woodridge suggest Labor does not consider this a laydown misere. Still, Greenslopes should be the lowest of low-hanging fruit.
He wants to be Premier and given the distraction Newman has given himself in contesting Ashgrove, I don’t blame Cameron for contesting an incredibly safe labor seat
Observer correct. Any donkey could win Woodridge for Labor so Dick being a good MP, and a likable, he will guy will absolutely romp it in. When he eventually leads Labor he will not have any seat distractions and can focus on the state issues. Dick could have won Greenslopes back.
I agree, Cameron would have romped in, but couldn’t take the risk – he’s too good to lose! Sorry I cNt vote for him this time ’round. Joe may not be as dynamic but he passionate, caring and a hard worker & will get my vote over our faceless LNP member
Pollbludger says a galaxy poll has this as absolutely no chance for the LNP
Galaxy Poll – ALP 59-41
LNP primary vote at 35%. This is especially bad because the LNP were counting on the inner city to swing less so they can withstand the swing from North QLD. LNP would be looking at losing Ferny Grove, Algester, Mount Coot-tha and Brisbane Central
Observer: are those primaries from the paper edition? Thanks.
Yes thats based on the swing reported in the courier mail
If I was ALP hack and had choice of Greenslopes or Woodridge I would pic the later
a drovers dog would win that for ALP Happy retirement Desley
My prediction: Greenslopes’ bellwether history will likely come to a close – while it’s gone with the government since 1960, it’s very much low-hanging fruit, and the ALP stands a good chance here. I think Mansfield and Mundingburra, this election pending, are better seats to use as bellwethers in the future.
I had a drovers dog and they worked very hard 🙂