Gladstone – Queensland 2015

IND 14.03% vs ALP

Incumbent MP
Liz Cunningham, since 1995.

Geography
Central Queensland. Gladstone covers the Gladstone urban area and surrounding rural areas in the Gladstone local government area.

History
The seat of Gladstone has existed since the 1992 election. The seat was held by the ALP for one term but has been held by an independent since 1995.

Neil Bennett won Gladstone for the ALP in 1992. Bennett defeated independent candidate Liz Cunningham, who ran in opposition to the downgrading of Gladstone Hospital.

Cunningham won on a second attempt in 1995. She supported a minority Coalition government from 1996 to 1998. She lost the balance of power when a second hung parliament was elected in 1998.

Cunningham has been re-elected in 2001, 2004, 2006, 2009 and 2012.

Candidates
Sitting independent MP Liz Cunningham is not running for re-election.

Assessment
With Cunningham’s retirement, Gladstone is likely to return to Labor. Cunningham has endorsed independent candidate Craig Butler, who could have a chance of winning the seat in a race against Labor.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Liz Cunningham Independent 14,020 48.96 -5.68
Glenn Butcher Labor 8,359 29.19 -13.45
Russell Schroter Liberal National 3,109 10.86 +10.86
Anthony Beezley Katter’s Australian 2,545 8.89 +8.89
Andrew Blake Greens 602 2.10 -0.62

2012 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Liz Cunningham Independent 15,890 64.03 +7.9
Glenn Butcher Labor 8,925 35.97 -7.90
Polling places in Gladstone at the 2012 Queensland state election. Gladstone in green, South in orange, West in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Gladstone at the 2012 Queensland state election. Gladstone in green, South in orange, West in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Gladstone have been divided into three parts. A majority of voters live in the town of Gladstone, and the nine booths in that town have been grouped together. Rural polling places have been split between those to the west of Gladstone and those to the south of Gladstone.

Independent MP Liz Cunningham’s vote was highest in the west and lowest in Gladstone, ranging from 63.3% to 46.6% respectively. On a two-candidate-preferred basis against the ALP, Cunningham’s majority ranges from 59.6% in Gladstone to 79.4% in the west.

The ALP’s primary vote ranges from 16.1% in the west to 33.8% in Gladstone. The Liberal National primary vote ranges from 7.7% in the west to 11.5% in the south.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-candidate-preferred figures by polling place, so two-candidate-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group IND prim % ALP prim % LNP prim % IND 2CP % Total % of votes
Gladstone 46.61 33.76 9.42 59.57 13,923 48.62
South 52.34 24.48 11.50 69.08 6,907 24.12
West 63.30 16.08 7.65 79.39 902 3.15
Other votes 48.46 26.39 13.53 66.20 6,903 24.11
Primary votes for independent MP Liz Cunningham in Gladstone at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Primary votes for independent MP Liz Cunningham in Gladstone at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in Gladstone at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in Gladstone at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Liberal National primary votes in Gladstone at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Liberal National primary votes in Gladstone at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Primary votes for independent MP Liz Cunningham in the Gladstone urban area at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Primary votes for independent MP Liz Cunningham in the Gladstone urban area at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in the Gladstone urban area at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in the Gladstone urban area at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Liberal National primary votes in the Gladstone urban area at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Liberal National primary votes in the Gladstone urban area at the 2012 Queensland state election.

18 COMMENTS

  3. If Cunningham does not elect to stand, this will be close to the first seat declared as returning to Labor on election night.

  4. Khan,

    Obviously, all the conservative vote is tied up with Cunningham in a seat like this. The LNP don’t even run against her half the time….

    But yes, if Cunningham is retiring, Labor is very likely to win….unless another Indy or minor party can harness her vote.

  6. The LNP WILL NOT win Gladstone. Look at the seat’s history (it used to be a different name) always Labor. It’s a very working class industrial centre. Labor written all over it….add to the LNP’s woes, the fact that Abbott has made it easy for blue collar workers to return to their Labor roots (manufacturing just one of the examples.) Even if you don’t count any of that, the dredge spoil controversy will hurt the LNP big time too. If Cunningham runs again she will probably win…..if she doesn’t, just give the Labor the seat now and don’t waste everyone’s time with a count.

  7. I threw some federal data from Flynn / Hinkler at a spreadsheet (in the process discovering how old the AEC’s 2001 election site is), and got these rough ALP 2pp figures for Gladstone. The 2cp (ALP vs Cunningham) figures from the nearest Qld election are in brackets on the right – both Qld and federal parliament have three year cycles, so it lines up pretty well.

    2001: 56.1% (46.5%)
    2004: 51.3% (38.8%)
    2007: 63.9% (48.0%)
    2010: 59.5% (43.9%)
    2013: 56.4% (35.9%)

    Those two figures track each other pretty closely, with the difference generally increasing (from 9.6% in 2001 to 20.5% in 2012/13). I guess you could call that the group of people who vote Labor but are fine with a conservative indie as long as she’s doing her job locally. If she retires, that’s 20% going straight back to Labor. That should be enough, even with the other 30% going to the LNP.

  8. Gladstone will certainly not go to LNP whilst LIberals dominate LNP.

    BIrd of Paradox is statistically correct but does not take into account the Queensland Voter..

    Gladstone is an industrial seat with high union membership who are turned off by the perceived immoral social policies of the Greens and the ALP and the perceived economic immorality of the LNP’s policies. Federal ALP (and to a lesser extyent Libs have spoenbt the last ten years preparing for or implementing an attack on processed electricity (Aluminium) Gladstone is a Coal Port that is under attack by both major parties. Gladstone know that a few dead fish count for more tahn unemployment in the town. They see Gladstone being turned into Geelong or Northern Tasmania. The electorate know that the Greens would wipe Gladstone off the map, and that both ALP & LNP claim to support industry but in reality would close down the city. Consequently Liz Cunningham allows ALP voters to vote against ALP without voting LNP and LNP voters to vote against LNP without going to ALP.

    I see 2015 being a huge opening for Independents and minors who ideologically are socially to the right of the ALP and Economically to the left of the LNP. Mind you in Queensland this is just about 90% of the electorate but they the electorate are not aware of this themselves.

    2015 will force many who want to send Newman Packing but do not want a return to Bligh and have hardly heard of Annastacia Palaszczuk.

    The ALP should be awarding Campbell Newman Life Membership for services to the Party. No other person has done as much to get ALP votes since the early 1900’s.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson@hotkey.net.au

  9. Independents can eventually wear out their welcome & 2015 is looking like a base-rallying exercise for Labor but I presume this electorate has a very low population turnover & thus well-suited to an independent.

  11. Cunningham has announced retirement. Will be one of the first seats declared as going back to Labor on election night.

  12. Not sure about that. Liz was a great member and held the balance of power twice once siding with the ALP and the other siding with the Nats. Very much a social conservative remained a good friend to the DLP and the NCC. Will be a great loss to Qld and hard to replace thats for sure. I wish her all the best in retirement

  13. Just confirms the LNP needs a majority to stay in government as Liz was probably the only cross bench and potential cross bench MP that would consider support

  15. Cunningham endorses local councillor Craig Butler to be the next independent for the electorate. Given the Fisher by-election results its unlikely that Liz’s support will carry on to Butler but in may prompt the LNP to not put up a candidate to better the chances of an independent winning rather then another pickup for labor

  16. Hard to know if Liz Cunnigham influence will play a role, here. I presume it probably won’t too much, Craig Butler candidacy is so late so he won’t have enough time to door knock much of the electorate, with the election on in three half weeks.

    Cunningham was a popular figure, but she wasn’t absolutely adored. There were times where she appeared vulnerable, she almost lost her seat with a 10% swing against her in 2006.

    Katter vote should be interesting where it goes, as Katter’s Australia Party has confirmed they wont be running a candidate in this seat.

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