LNP 9.52%
Incumbent MP
Dale Shuttleworth, since 2012.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Ferny Grove covers southern parts of Moreton Bay LGA and a small part of the City of Brisbane, on the northwestern fringe of Brisbane. The seat covers the suburbs of Ferny Grove, Ferny Hills, Arana Hills, Upper Kedron and parts of Keperra and semi-rural areas to the north-west, including Samford Village, Closeburn, Mount Glorious and Mount Nebo.
History
Ferny Grove has existed since 1992, and has always been held by the ALP.
It was first won in 1992 by Glen Milliner, who had held the neighbouring seat of Everton since 1977. He became a minister in the Goss government in 1989. He continued to serve as a minister until the government lost power in 1996, and he retired from Parliament in 1998.
Ferny Grove was won in 1998 by Geoff Wilson. Wilson held Ferny Grove for five terms, and served as a minister from 2004 to 2012.
In 2012, Wilson was defeated by LNP candidate Dale Shuttleworth.
Candidates
- Michael Berkman (Greens)
- Di Gittins (Independent)
- Dale Shuttleworth (Liberal National)
- Mark Taverner (Palmer United)
- Mark Furner (Labor)
Assessment
Ferny Grove was a very safe Labor seat for most of the 2000s, but became a marginal seat at the 2009 election before the LNP won in 2012. Labor will be hoping to regain the seat if they are to have a shot at forming a new government.
2012 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Dale Shuttleworth | Liberal National | 15,458 | 54.36 | +15.07 |
| Geoff Wilson | Labor | 8,929 | 31.40 | -12.86 |
| Howard Nielsen | Greens | 4,051 | 14.25 | +0.3 |
2012 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Dale Shuttleworth | Liberal National | 16,062 | 59.52 | +14.01 |
| Geoff Wilson | Labor | 10,922 | 40.48 | -14.01 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Ferny Grove have been split into three parts: Ferny Grove, East and West.
The LNP won a majority of the primary vote in all three areas. The LNP vote was higher at 57.9% in the west than its vote in the other two areas, where it was around 52-53%.
The ALP performed most strongly in Ferny Grove and the east, with 34% of the vote, and much less at 23% in the west.
The Greens polled most strongly at 19.2% in the west, and with 13% in the east and Ferny Grove.
The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.
| Voter group | LNP prim % | ALP prim % | GRN prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total | % of votes |
| Ferny Grove | 52.67 | 34.40 | 12.92 | 57.25 | 9,487 | 33.36 |
| West | 57.87 | 22.93 | 19.20 | 65.23 | 5,792 | 20.37 |
| East | 52.31 | 34.47 | 13.22 | 56.98 | 5,297 | 18.63 |
| Other votes | 55.18 | 31.94 | 12.88 | 59.87 | 7,862 | 27.65 |
Geoff Wilson being the Health Minister was always going to be the biggest factor for this area to vote for the LNP. With a high profile labor candidate in Mark Furner, this seat should go to labor
Dat 49% Greens booth.
I wonder what the factor/s is/are that gives The Greens an incredibly high percentage of the vote in that particular booth when compared to other booths in the electorate? Especially considering that the next highest booth for The Greens is 19%..
That would be Mt Nebo Khan, a small hippy commune with a small population.
Ferny Grove is next to ashgrove, if it falls then the premier is certainly gone. I think the swing in this area (ashgrove, Ferny Grove, Brisbane central, bullimba and Mt cootha will be stronger than the northern corridor of kallangur murrumba pumicestone morayfield). The question is how strong.
Agree with all you said Observer except Brisbane Central. Demographics changing everyday there. Becoming more and more LNP.
Labor didn’t even get close to winning Brisbane at fed election. Once upon a time it was a give me seat for Labor.
Agree with all you said Observer except Brisbane Central. Demographics changing everyday there. Becoming more and more LNP.
Labor didn’t even get close to winning Brisbane at fed election. Once upon a time it was a give me seat for Labor.
Cavalucci is a real talent and the strongest local member of those seats but if the swing in that area averages 10% he is gone. If it’s closer to his margin then he may have done enough to hold while others on that margin fall, if that makes sense.
Rudd for PM, labor weren’t going to pick up any seats, the best they did was a very small swing to them of less then 1% in Bonner I think so using federal seats as an indicator for state performance isn’t very useful, after all state and federal labor in QLD haven’t performed the same pretty much ever with the exception of 2007
Using federal results might not be the neatest fit, but it’s the most recent election in Qld, and the results are somewhat sane. It’s what we’ve got.
Have a look at the comment I left on the Gladstone page, and plug those numbers into Excel and graph them. Factor in a ~15% personal vote for the conservative indie MP, and the state and federal figures line up surprisingly well. If I get bored enough over the next few days I might have a go at that for some more seats (mostly in Brisbane and the Gold Coast, as the KAP factor screws things up in any part of North Qld that isn’t Kennedy, and PUP does similar in Fairfax and Fisher).
Perhaps it’s not the best for me to use federal results as any sort of indication but I still stand by that Labor WON’T win back Brisbane Central. If ever there was an area you could say is changing by the minute, both in demographic and wealth it’s that seat.
The margin here is 9.5%, as I mentioned above I think the inner Brisbane swing will be heavier, somewhere between 8-12%. So this seat is in range.II I will save more Brisbane central for its own thread, but in summary the margin is just too small to survive. Even if his swing is smaller than ferny Grove or ashgrove. I think the northern corridor the swing will be smaller by a couple of percent.
I think that the LNP will hold this seat. Good local candidate and haven’t seen or heard much from Mark Furner around the traps.
Di Gittins is a member of the federally-registered Arts Party
http://digittins.com/
I’m from Sydney but have family in this electorate and they are working hard for LNP candidate – I’ve met him – my relatives inform he has done a good job (and when I was up there recently and met with relatives and many of their friends there was nothing but good things said. There may only be a small swing against this candidate irrespective of what happens elsewhere – very confident this LNP candidate will hold on.
Will be watching this one closely!
Labor Candidate Mark Furner has been door knocking for 6 months and has run a very good campaign the alternative only came to life once election called with many locals reporting in prepolling that they’re feeling they’ve had no voice through him.
Mark Furner will bring a lot of experience and skill to government with an already built local repuatation. I think you’ll find this one will clearly fall his way.
I hope you’re right Scope.
If effort by a candidate counts for anything, this seat will have the greatest swing in the state. Mark Furner has been tireless over the last 6 months and is possibly the most recognisable non-sitting member in the state (and more recognised than most sitting members too).
I can say I live in Ferny Grove and all I have ever seen Mark Funer do is sit down! He has not once got up from that chair of his to acknowledge me when I have walked passed or drove passed! He also has not door knocked me or any family member!! A waste of space I say and if he wins I’m out!
Louise this is hardly the site for “rubbishing” candidates and youre remarks have no merit! Seems like you must of seem a lot of him which could only prove a strong presence?
Leave those comments for facebook!
I agree and I will apologize scope, to be honest I’m very undecided in who to vote for, like you have said I have seen mark or his volunteers out but I’ve also have had good dealings with Dale!
Very tough choice this election and I have been hearing a lot of mixed opinions from the community!
Will be a close seat to watch I think!!
My prediction: Perhaps a future bellwether, if federal results in the area are anything to go by. This is a real nail-biter, and to be honest, I think the ALP will narrowly win this back.
Has this seat been determined? I can’t seem to find anything that I can understand! Thanks
Ferny Grove is a probable Labor gain.
The ABC has given the seat away. Poll Bludger is more cautious and has it as one of the handful in doubt.
probably Labor, but Sunday update cuts its share of 2PP from 51.6 to 51.25. Given LNP strength in postals and pre-polls, can’t lock it in yet.
Interesting to note that a group of seats out that way recorded notably smaller swings to Labor than the statewide average: on current figures, 8.3% in Mt Coot-tha, 9.8 % in Ashgrove – yes! – and 11% in Ferny Grove. Anyone got any thoughts on why?
will more than likely fall to ALP Mark Furner, he holds a big enough lead for any remaining figures coming through to not likely be strong enough to fall.
Haven’t seen any further update yet! Guess it’s one of the seats that will take a few days with postal votes! I knew it would be close but probably not this close!
Postal votes won’t help. It’s labor win. Check out abc website, they have called it safe labor win
This seat is a mess!! Anyone thoughts on by-election I’m thinking unlikely but that’s just what I’ve heard from the media.
ECQ has called Ferny Grove for Labor by about 400 votes.