Coomera – Queensland 2015

LNP 23.26%

Incumbent MP
Michael Crandon, since 2009.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Coomera covers the northern Gold Coast suburbs of Steiglitz, Jacobs Well, Hope Island, Helensvale and parts of Coomera, Pimpama and Ormeau.

History
The seat of Coomera was created at the 2009 election out of parts of the Albert electorate, in the fast-growing corridor between Brisbane and the Gold Coast.

The seat was created with an 8.3% margin for the ALP, but a swing of over 10% saw the LNP’s Michael Crandon elected as the seat’s first MP. Crandon was re-elected in 2012.

Candidates

Assessment
Coomera is held by the LNP’s Crandon by a huge 23.3% margin, but this masks Coomera’s recent history as a marginal seat – the electorate was a notional Labor seat when it was drawn prior to the 2009 election, and Crandon only won in 2009 by a 1.9% margin. Crandon is likely to retain the seat, but you would expect to see his margin cut dramatically.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Michael Crandon Liberal National 17,951 61.89 +14.76
Graeme Higgs Labor 5,771 19.90 -22.93
Peter Cobb Katter’s Australian 2,902 10.01 +10.01
Chris Wisbey Greens 1,751 6.04 -0.11
Rowan Harrip Independent 628 2.17 +2.17

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Michael Crandon Liberal National 18,932 73.26 +21.35
Graeme Higgs Labor 6,910 26.74 -21.35
Polling places in Coomera at the 2012 Queensland state election. Central in blue, North in green, South in yellow. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Coomera at the 2012 Queensland state election. Central in blue, North in green, South in yellow. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Coomera have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.

The LNP topped the poll in all three areas, but won substantially more votes in the centre and south than in the north.

On a primary vote basis, the LNP vote ranged from 47% in the north to 67.7% in the south. On a two-party-preferred basis, the LNP’s vote ranged from 61.6% in the north to 77.4% in the south.

The Labor primary vote ranged from 17.2% in the south to 27.1% in the north.

The Katter’s Australian Party vote ranged from 7.8% in the south to 15.7% in the north.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % KAP prim % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
South 67.67 17.23 7.76 77.42 11,959 41.23
North 47.11 27.14 15.72 61.60 4,256 14.67
Central 60.66 20.45 11.48 72.41 4,225 14.57
Other votes 61.78 19.75 9.58 73.24 8,563 29.52
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Coomera at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Coomera at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter's Australian Party primary votes in Coomera at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter’s Australian Party primary votes in Coomera at the 2012 Queensland state election.

10 COMMENTS

  2. This an Albert are similar…….. really a history of being Alp held since 1989…… the margin here is huge….. Albert more likely ALP win

  3. The courier Mail lists this as a seat labor have hopes for a good showing in along with southport, Broadwater and Burkeigh. Honestly think this is more likely to fall then southport IF labor turns it around this week

  4. @ Observer, how do you figure that? Southport has a history of being in Labor’s hands and is a far smaller margin. Thoughts? Surely Labor can’t achieve at 23-24 percent swing in any seat under their current team?

  5. Sophomore surge for Southport MP and given that he hasn’t had such a bad profile that Verity Barton has achieved. If things go well for labor and there’s a chance of forming government they would need seats in this region and I think Broadwater would be likely, Gail has more name recognition by contesting the federal seat for Burleigh but Southport there’s not much going for labor other then margins Peter Lawlor use to achieve. What your also forgetting is in 09 this seat had a 10% margin to labor notionally which was wiped out, then on top of that is the 20% swing he achieved being a sophmore so surely there’s going to be a correction which will make it a large swing given the continuous swing adding up to 30%!

    I would honestly rank the GC seats labor would be likely to pick up (if they pick up any)
    1. Albert
    2. Gaven
    3. Broadwater
    4. Burleigh
    5. Coomera
    6. Southport
    7. Mudgeeraba
    8. Mermaid Beach
    9. Currumbin
    10. Surfers Paradise

    Coomera would be the unexpected pick up seat of the night I think because most would expect the 09 GC labor seats more likely to fall if labor picks up on the GC. I notice that the campaign by labor has started to head to the seats that they need to fall over the line like Springwood and Broadwater so we will have to see how the campaign goes this week to see whether labor can win atleast 2 or 3 seats on the Gold Coast

  6. To be honest, I only really expect Albert and maybe Broadwater to go to Labor. Gaven I’m not so sure about, as I think Alex Douglas will poll decently, but not well enough to get into the TPP

  7. Yeh i have no real feeling that labor will do well, honestly think its about bringing down those inflated margins. I agree Albert will be a good pick up to get but Gaven I say because the rights vote will be so split with Douglas and PUP that because of exhaustion, labor would have a decent chance to capitalise and gain the seat

  8. Don’t write Coomera off just yet. Brett McCreadie is a great candidate. He has been out door knocking and meeting the locals and has had a great response. We may not win it, but it will be close! Expect the huge majority to be sizably shrunk!

  9. problem of a big anti- labor Margin versus a history of being Labor held 2001 to 2009…… also the gold coast seats seemed to swing big last election

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